Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Markets waffle on low volume

Stocks started higher but were not able to increase the gains. Dow is up only 18 (just above 10K), advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ fell 4. Bank stocks are recovering after yesterday's loss.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 181.49 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change 0.88 (0.5%)


The Alerian MLP Index dropped another 2+ to the 317s, near its Aug lows (but up 32 YTD). The REIT index was up 1+ to the 201s. Junk bond funds were flat & the VIX fell fractionally in the 26s but above its lows in the low 20s a few weeks ago. Treasuries continue to provide excitement with yields going even lower. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 4½ basis points to 2.50%, just above its 17 month lows reached last week.

Treasury Securities


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.49%
U.S. 10-year
2.50%


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




VIX --- 2 weeks




10-Year Treasury Yld Index --- 2 weeks





Oil is not doing much & gold is seeing buying after doing little yesterday. Gold needs only another 20 to reach record levels (again).

CLV10.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 10...74.45 ...Down 0.25
.......(0.3%)

GCU10.CMX...Gold Sep 10...1,245.80 ...Up 8.70
.......(0.7%)



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The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index improved slightly to 53.5 in Aug, up from a revised 51.0 in Jul & comes after 2 straight months of declines. But it takes a reading of 90+ to indicate a healthy economy, not reached since the recession began in Dec 2007. This reading suggests that confidence hasn't improved from a year ago, a bad sign for the economy & especially retailers. The slight improvement in the index was boosted by shoppers' improved outlook over the next 6 months which rose to 72.5 from 67.5. The other index, which measures how consumers feel now about the economy, decreased to 24.9 from 26.4. Confidence in the economy improved slightly in Aug, but the mood is remains gloomy amid job worries giving more mixed readings about the recovery.

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rose More Than Economists Forecast in August


Consumer confidence - 1 year

One-Year Chart for Confidence (CONCCONF:IND)




Saks Rises in Early Trading, Report Retailer May Get Bid

Saks, Photo: Bloomberg


Saks (SKS) rose after a report said it may receive a takeover offer from a private-equity group. Buyout firms appear to be close to offering $1.7B ($11 a share) for SKS. The stock shot up 1.60 (24%) to 8.20 on hopes of a lucrative buyout.

Saks Rises After Report Retailer May Get Bid


Saks --- 1 month






Heinz Profit Probably Topped Estimates on Emerging Markets

Photo: Bloomberg


H.J. Heinz (HNZ) said it's off to a good start for its fiscal year & expects to report Q1 results above expectations. William Johnson, CEO, said the company expects to earn 75¢ per share for its Q1, up from the 67¢ earned last year & above 73¢ estimated by analysts. The improvement is based on stronger sales, particularly in emerging markets (almost two-thirds of sales are outside the US). "We believe that our solid first-quarter results put Heinz on track to deliver our financial targets for the full year, even though the consumer and economic environment remains challenging," Johnson said. Heinz announced in Jun that it was buying Foodstar, a Chinese food company that makes soy sauces & fermented bean curd, for $165M from a private equity firm. HNZ will continue to focus on foreign markets as emerging markets are on track to deliver at least 20% of total sales by 2013, more than double their contribution 5 years ago. The stock rose 46¢ to 46.55 & yields an impressive 3.9%.

Heinz Profit Probably Topped Analysts' Estimates on Emerging Markets


Heinz --- YTD





There is not much happening on light volume again in the markets. Dow keeps floundering around 10K looking for direction.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks















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