Friday, December 17, 2010

Markets drift after hitting 2 year highs

Dow fell 31, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ is up 5.  Popular averages are essentially at 2 year highs, but there is no conviction to take them higher.  Bank stocks as market leaders also edged a little higher.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 208.27 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   0.14  (0.1%)



The MLP index is down a tick in the 351s, resting after its recent sell off.  On a quiet day, the REIT index is up a fraction in the 213s while junk bond funds are mixed to higher.  Buyers were bargain hunting after the recent rise in Treasury yields.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond dropped 7 basis point to 3.40%, still about one full percentage point above its lows last month.


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.11%
U.S. 2-year
0.63%
U.S. 10-year
3.40%


Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Buyers like oil again, maybe this time they will be able to crack thru the 90 ceiling.  Gold buyers are reassessing the commodity after its recent price drop.

CLF11.NYM...Light Sweet Crude Oil... 88.34 ...Up 0.64  (0.7%)

GCZ10.CMX...Gold Dec 10.............1,370.00 ....Down 0.40  (0.0%)

Gold Super Cycle Link! Click Here




Congress passed the $858B bill, by a 277-148 vote, extending all Bush-era tax cuts for 2 years.  The tax-cut plan extends through 2012 all Bush-era tax reductions on income, capital gains & dividends. It also continues expanded unemployment insurance benefits through 2011, cuts payroll taxes by 2 percentage points during 2011 & lets businesses write off 100% of capital investments between Sep 2010 & the end of  2011.  The legislation also extends dozens of expired & expiring tax breaks, including a research & development tax credit & a college tuition tax credit that was created in last year’s economic stimulus law.  As the renewed tax cuts will expire at the end of 2012 they are certain to be a focus of the next presidential campaign.  However, the so called omnibus bill, a huge package which was hastily written containing a ton of pork projects among of things, to fund the gov for FY2011, was thrown out last night.  The gov will will have to figure out how to pay bills until the Reps report to work in Jan.

Congress Passes $858 Billion Tax-Cut Extension, Sends to Obama for Signing


RIM Climbs After Predicting Profit Topping Analyst Estimates

Photo:  Bloomberg


Research In Motion (RIMM) growing reliance on sales outside the United States creates questions about the BlackBerry maker's competitive edge, even after the company reported decent quarterly results.  The Canadian company said that net profit jumped 45% & it shipped 14.2M devices in the 3 months ending Nov 27.  But its relative weakness in the US, the most saturated & valuable smartphone market, & its rising inventory levels, which RIM said was due to a burst of orders ahead of the Christmas shopping season, were causes of concern that momentum is fading.  Analysts have mixed views about the future of RIMM.  The stock was up 1½ after failing to participate in this year's stock market rally

RIM Climbs After Predicting Profit That Tops Analyst Estimates


Research in Motion  --  YTD




The vote by the House on the tax bill should have given the markets a big lift.  Extending the low tax rates did not help, maybe because this legislation only runs for 24 months.  After all is said & done, markets are having a good year.  The Dow is up 1K YTD, an impressive gain especially when the economy is not having a robust recovery.  In the absence of major news developments, markets can be expected to drift along in the PM.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks




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