Thursday, December 23, 2010

Markets little changed going into the holiday weekend

Dow was up 14, decliners slightly ahead of advancers while NAZ slipped 5.  Banks stocks gave up a little of their big gains in Dec.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value213.62One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  -1.65  (-0.8%)


The MLP index gained a ½ in the 357s & the REIT index was off 1 to 220.  Junk bond funds generally were higher.  Treasuries were weaker after the Treasury announced it would auction off $99B in new debt next week.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 5 basis points to 3.39% taking it closer to its highs above 3.5% last week.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.13%
U.S. 2-year
0.66%
U.S. 10-year
3.39%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 months



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 months



10-Year Treasury Yield Index --- 2 months




Oil rose to the highest level in more than 2 years as confidence among US consumers advanced to a 6 month high, signaling that fuel demand will increase in the US. Gold settled back following big gains this year & in this decade.

CLG11.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 11...91.51 ...Up 1.03  (1.1%)

GCZ10.CMX...Gold Dec 10.....1,379.10 ....Down 7.70  (0.6%)


*** Gold Super Cycle *** Click Here



US household purchases rose 0.4% in Nov after a 0.7% increase in Oct (almost twice as large as previously estimated) according to the Commerce Dept. The agency also reported a 2.6% gain in bookings for capital goods like computers & electronics. Rising incomes & stock prices are giving consumers the wherewithal to boost the purchases that account for 70% of the economy.

U.S. Consumer Spending, Capital Investment Increase


Apple (AAPL) & Citigroup (C) have had 2 different stories in 2010.  AAPL kept soaring to new heights after being on a roll since 2005.  Citi still has a lot of ground to recover after the stock was hammered down to $1 at the bottom of the market sell-off early last year.  Going into the new year, Citi may have a good year with improving operations.  In addition, the gov has finished selling its massive stock holding.  AAPL will have a difficult time surging forward with increased competition from major players going after markets that iPad & iPhone dominate. 

Apple   ---   YTD



Citigroup   ---   YTD




Volume on the NYSE floor was one of the slowest days of the year with only 0.6B shares traded.  Next week should continue this sluggish pace.  Much of the trading will be traders evening out positions one way or the other.  YTD Dow is at its yearly highs, not seen since before the Lehman collapse in Sep 2008.  Dow gained over 1700 in 2009 & another 1000+ this year.  At a time when there is almost universal agreement that 2011 will make it 3 years in a row, I'm not so sure.  Over the short term, have a good holiday season.  

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months




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