Monday, February 7, 2011

Dow is on a 6 day winning streak

Dow rose at the start & remained near its highs not seen since mid 2008.  It finished up 69 (but off the daily highs), advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 14.  Merger Mon & generally bullish earnings kept the buyers looking for stocks.  The Financial Index was also strong at a 9 month high, just a few points under its peak last Apr.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value226.93One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   3.41  (1.5%)


The MLP index was off a fraction in the 371s.  Competition from higher Treasury yields hurt.  But the Dow Jones REIT Index shot up almost 3 to the 233, barely reaching a new yearly high (really 2½ years).  Junk bond funds had modest gains.  Treasury yields were at their highest levels in 9 months (shown below) although today yields were flattish.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.14%
U.S. 2-year
0.76%
U.S. 10-year
3.64%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   1 Year




Oil fell to the lowest level in a week as talks between the gov & opposition politicians helped ease tensions in Egypt, reducing concern that supplies will be disrupted.  Meanwhile, gold went nowhere fast.

CLH11.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 11...87.43 ...Down 1.60  (1.8%)

GCG11.CMX...Gold Feb 11.......1,350.90 ...Up 2.30  (0.2%)

$$ Gold Super Cycle $$  



President Barack Obama

Photo:  Bloomberg

President Obama in a speech to the Chamber of Commerce, called for a cooperative relationship with the private sector & argued gov & business have a shared responsibility. He highlighted new efforts by his administration to improve the nation's infrastructure, invest more on entrepreneurs & foster greater innovation.  He offered a defense of gov regulations, even as he promised to eliminate those that are too burdensome.  "I want to be clear: even as we make America the best place on earth to do business, businesses also have a responsibility to America," Obama said. "As we work with you to make America a better place to do business, ask yourselves what you can do for America. Ask yourselves what you can do to hire American workers, to support the American economy, and to invest in this nation."  He called for changes in the corp tax code & increased exports, but pointedly warned that businesses could not translate those benefits into "greater profits and bonuses for those at the top.  We cannot go back to the kind of economy - and culture - we saw in the years leading up to the recession, where growth and gains in productivity just didn't translate into rising incomes and opportunity for the middle class," he said.  OK, now it's back to business as usual.

Obama Calls on Companies to `Get in the Game' by Spending


Tim Armstrong and Arianna Huffington

 Photo:   Bloomberg

AOL (AOL) bought Huffington Post for $315M because it thinks this was a smart deal for both sides.  The Huffington Post gets $300M in cash, not bad for a 6 year old company.  AOL is making a big bet on a fast-growing new media brand, one that could serve as the premiere brand in its network of web sites. Will the deal work?  Hard to say.  Integration challenges will be enormous, from sales to technology to content.  Of course, AOL made a big acquisition over 10 years ago, Time Warner (TWX), which didn't work out so well.  It's hard to shake that legacy, even in this fast moving world.  The market gave this deal a thumbs down, the stock fell 75¢.
 
AOL to Buy Huffington Post for $315 Million; Founder Stays

AOL   ---   1 year




Stocks can do little wrong.  All news is good or at least good enough.  Dow is up almost a startling 1K since the beginning of Dec based on upward revisions of the US economic recovery.  But popular averages have to climb further to set new record highs in the face of high unemployment & a very dreary housing market.  The Federal Reserve is still buying Treasuries in its $600B program with the objective of keeping rates low.  That is not working.  For the time being the bulls are calling the shots.  However, when markets go too long & too fast, they are setting themselves up for a major correction.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD





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