Monday, February 14, 2011

Markets waver following proposed federal budget

Stocks did little even though energy shares were bid up.  Dow fell 5, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 7.  Banks stocks edged higher with the Financial Index remaining at its Apr 2010 highs.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value230.06One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change  0.16  (0.1%)


The Alerian MLP Index shot up almost 5 (an unsually large one day price swing) to a new record close.  Oils were strong, that strength may have been extended to the MLPs.  The REIT index was down pennies, but remains essentially at its multi year highs.  Junk bond funds were even again.  Treasuries were a little stronger after the proposed federal budget was released.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 3 basis points to 3.61% (still above the 3½% plateau it had been near for several months).

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.11%
U.S. 2-year
0.84%
U.S. 10-year
3.62%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




Crude oil extended its decline to the lowest levels since last Nov.  Gold continued to mark time.

CLH11.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 11...84.90 ...Down 0.68  (0.8%)

GCG11.CMX...Gold Feb 11......1,361.50 ....Up 1.60  (0.1%)

$$ Gold Super Cycle $$  



Chevron to Appeal $8.2 Billion Ecuador Pollution Case

Photo:  Bloomberg

An Ecuadorean judge ruled Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock, was responsible for oil contamination in Ecuador's northern jungle & fined it at over $8B.  CVX said it would appeal & called the ruling "illegitimate and unenforceable."  The suit stems from damages on behalf of 30K people for environmental contamination & illnesses that allegedly resulted from Texaco's operation of an oil consortium from 1972-1990 (CVX bought Texaco in 2001).  On a good day for oils, the stock rose 1.22 to 96.95 (just below its yearly highs in the 98s).

Chevron to Appeal $8.2 Billion Ecuador Fine in Amazon River Pollution Case

Chevron   ---   1 year




Clorox (CLX), a Dividend Aristocrat, fell after spiking last week following the disclosure that Carl Icahn had a 9.08% stake in the company.  The stock climbed 8% Fri to close at $71.26, after the stake was disclosed in an SEC filing. The notice came a week after CLX reported an 81% drop in fiscal Q2 profit on softer sales & a charge.  But today an analyst downgraded CLX to "Neutral" from "Buy" & maintained a $72 price target after saying the downgrade was driven by the stock price spike bringing the shares near the price target.  The stock sold off 4.41 to 66.85.  Dow continues at its multi year high levels.

Clorox shares fall as analyst issues downgradeAP

Clorox   ---   YTD




Markets went nowhere fast today.  The $3.7T federal budget will take some time to digest & understand.  But the budget confirms that there will be a string of $1+T deficits going for a number of years, very disturbing!  Gold continues to be mired in the trenches.  CLX has an unusual story.  This is a low beta stock, but in 2 days it surged 4 & then lost that gain.  MLPs were the standout performer with the index reaching a new record.  Dow continues at its multi year highs, bulls are happy.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD





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