Libya unrest shakes markets

Dow dropped 178 (one of its biggest declines in months), decliners over advancers 6-1 & NAZ was off a very big 77 (led by a $11.95 decline for Apple).  Bank stocks were hit hard, taking the Financial Index down 7, a very big decline especially after its run up in recent months

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value	224.01
Change	-7.15  (-3.1%)

The MLP index dropped 3 to the 376s & the REIT index fell 2½ to the 234s.  Junk bond funds were down at least 1%, big by their standards, while Treasuries were strong.  The yield on hthe 10 year Treasury bond dropped a whopping 13 basis points to 3.46% in pursuit of what is considered safety.

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month		0.10%
U.S. 2-year		0.69%
U.S. 10-year		3.46%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   YTD



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   YTD



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   YTD




US crude stockpiles probably rose for a 6th week, the longest series of gains since May, as a glut forms in Cushing, OK, the country’s biggest oil- trading hub.  However oil had one of its biggest daily gains in history as traders are more councerned with events in Libya & the rest of the Mideast.  Gold topped $1,400 an ounce as unrest in the Middle East boosted demand for the precious metal.

CLH11.NYM

...Crude Oil Mar 11

...94.06

..... 7.89  (9.2%)

GCG11.CMX

...Gold Feb 11

.......1,400.90

... 12.70  (0.9%)

$$$$ Gold Super Cycle $$$$  

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VF Corp.(VFC), a Dividend Aristocrat, net income declined 19% in Q4, weighed down by increased costs & an impairment charge, but revenue rose on strong performance from the company's outdoor & action sports segment.  Adjusted results were above expectations & VFC also gave a 2011 earnings outlook above estimates.  In Q4, VFC had EPS of 49¢, compared with 60¢ a year earlier. Excluding an impairment charge, EPS increased to $1.78 ahead of $1.62 in the prior year & expectations of $1.64.  There was an impairment charge of $1.29 per share related to 7 For All Mankind brand.  Revenue rose 11% to $2.13B (above expectations of $2.03B), helped by brands including North Face, Vans, Lee & Kipling.  Revenue in the outdoor & action sports segment was up 20%.  Intl businesses are gaining importance, particularly in Asia, where revenue grew 31% in Q4 & the company expects Asia revenue to increase more than 25% in 2011.  For 2010, VFC had EPS of $5.18, up from $4.13 in the prior year.  Adjusted earnings rose to $6.46 from $5.16 & revenue improved to $7.7B from $7.22B.  VF guided 2011 EPS of $7.00-7.10 & predicts revenue will climb 8-9%, which implies revenue of 8.3-8.4B.  The stock climbed $6.72 to a new record!


VF's 4Q earnings slip, but revenue rises 11 pctAP

VF Corp   ---   10 years





Wal-Mart (WMT), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, gave a Q1 profit & full-year outlook range that suggested it may fall short of expectations based on its view of the global economy. The company also placed top priority on returning sales trends in the US, its largest market, to positive territory. CEO Mike Duke said the company was pleased with Q4 & full-year performance in all 3 of its “operating segments.”  But he also said, the company was disappointed by domestic sales in Q4, with pricing & merchandising issues running “deeper than we initially expected.” Those, he said, “require a response [whose results] will take time to see.” An 11% increase in inventory was also of concern to investors.  Q4 EPS rose to $1.70 from $1.25 a share. Sales in the Jan 31 qtr  rose 2.5% to $115.6B, while membership & other income declined 4.5% to $760M.  Excluding tax benefits of 7¢ a share & other one-time items, WMT would have earned $1.34 a share, beating expectations of $1.31.  WMT forecast Q1 EPS of 91-96¢ & full-year earnings of $4.35-4.50. The stock fell $1.71 to the 53s after doing little over the last 10 years.

Wal-Mart hints it may miss first-quarter targetat MarketWatch

Wal-Mart   ---   10 years





Markets have forgotten that stocks go in 2 directions & today was a reminder that profit taking can halt any advance. While this decline was a shock to some, it could represent only expected profit taking in an overbought market that was way overdo. But the less than optimistic forecasts by WMT for 2011 will give even bulls a reason to reassess prospects for the new year.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   YTD

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