Friday, February 18, 2011

Markets try for a third consecutve week of gains

Dow rose 28 to another multi year high, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ was up 3.  Bank stocks continue flattish, with the Financial Index at its 2+ year highs.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 230.59 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.09  (-0.0%)



The MLP index shot up another 2 to the 379s, up 10 this week, to another new record.  The yield on the index is now below 6%.  Meanwhile the REIT index was flat in the 236s.  Junk bond funds inched higher while Treasuries fell after a European Central Bank official said it may need to raise interest rates as global inflation pressures mount while the Federal Reserve maintains its target of almost-zero short-term rates.

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.09%
U.S. 2-year
0.80%
U.S. 10-year
3.62%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil rose to the highest level in a week as escalating protests in Bahrain & Libya raised concern supplies from oil-producing nations in the Middle East will be disrupted. Gold rose on demand for precious metals to hedge against declines in other assets because of unrest in the Middle East.

CLH11.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 11...87.33 ...Up 0.95  (1.1%)

GCG11.CMX...Gold Feb 11.......1,384.60 ...Down 0.10 (0.0%)

Gold Super Cycle Link!! Click Here


At the G20 meeting, China rejected plans to use real exchange rates & currency reserves to measure global economic imbalances, casting doubt on the ability of G20 major economic powers to reach agreement at their meeting.  The hardline Chinese stance highlighted splits over how to define economic imbalances & prescribe action to avoid future financial crises.  Differences over the causes of & ways to cure global economic imbalances were also on display at a public debate among the world's top central bankers.  Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, reflected the views of many Western policymakers, saying the world risked protectionism or another financial crisis if policymakers failed to reduce currency distortions & other imbalances.  But Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Beijing would decide the pace of the appreciation of the yuan on its own & would not be swayed by pressure from other countries. Simply adjusting exchange rates would not influence Asians' savings behavior, he said.  With world shares near 30-month highs, driven by bullish views of economic growth, investors seem content for the G20 to take its time.

G-20 Stung by Faster Inflation Amid Imbalance Dispute


China’s central bank raised reserve requirements for lenders 10 days after boosting interest rates as it tackles accelerating inflation & the risk of asset bubbles in the fastest-growing major economy.  Reserve ratios will increase half a percentage point starting Feb 24. Lending surged in Jan & inflation quickened as new home prices rose in all but 2 of 70 cities.  If these moves work, China will be buying less from the rest of the world.

China Raises Bank Reserve Ratios to Counter Inflation



Campbell Cuts Full-Year Forecasts for Earnings, Sales

Photo:  Bloomberg

Campbell Soup (CPB) EPS declined 8% to 71¢, in its fiscal Q2 as sales fell 1% to $2.13B.  CPB used deep price discounts to sell more soup, but that meant less revenue. Revenue from high-profit condensed soups fell 7%.  Sales may drop as much as 1% in FY2011 which compares with a previous forecast of at least a 1% increase. EPS will fall 1-3%, to around $2.40, compared with earlier predictions of a gain. Analysts are forecasting $2.51. CEO Douglas Conant said increasing spending on promotions failed to boost revenue as much as expected in Q2, with US soup sales declining 4%. That business, with brands including the Chunky line, accounts for about 40% of sales at CPB.  The stock fell 1.69, the biggest drop in over 2 years.,

Campbell Cuts Full-Year Forecasts for Earnings, Sales

Campbell   ---   2 years




Bulls remain in control of the markets.  The chart below shows the Dow is up about 250 in just 2 weeks with no significant bumps in its road.  The MLP index may be shooting for the moon.  Its last obstacle was a pause in Nov. Going into a long weekend, there could be profit taking into the close which will likely not be serious. 

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks






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