Thursday, February 3, 2011

Markets fall on Egyptian chaos

Dow fell 28, decliners ahead of advancers 2-1 & NAZ dropped 12.  Bank stocks were also weak on confusion coming from Egypt

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 222.43 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -1.07  (-0.5%)



The MLP index fell 2½, from the record high set yesterday, to the 371s.  The REIT index was only down a fraction in the 231s, still near its interim highs.  Junk bond funds were flat again, but Treasuries sold off.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 2.51%, near its 2 month highs. 

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.70%
U.S. 10-year
3.52%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 weeks



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 weeks



10 Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 weeks




Oil extended declines falling as much as 0.6%, but remains near its recent highs in the 92s.  Gold keeps muddling along as it fails to attract significant buying despite the turmoil in the Mideast.

CLH11.NYM...Crude Oil Mar 11...90.47....Down 0.39  (0.4%)

GCG11.CMX...Gold Feb 11......1,333.00 ...Up 1.50 (0.1%)


Gold Super Cycle Link!  




U.S. Jobless Claims

Photo:  Bloomberg

First- time claims for unemployment insurance fell last week, helped by southern states that were affected by storms in prior weeks.  Applications decreased 42K to 415K according to the Labor Dept. The number receiving unemployment insurance & those collecting extended payments decreased.  The prior week’s figure was revised to 457K from an initially reported 454K claims.  The number of applications rose by 10K in Georgia, 6K in North Carolina & 3K in South Carolina 2 weeks ago, which may reflect a rebound from depressed levels attributed to the influence of bad weather in prior weeks. Those states led the drop last week.  The 4-week moving average rose to 430K from 429K last week.  The number continuing to collect jobless benefits dropped by 84K to 3.93M.  Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits & are collecting emergency & extended payments decreased 68K to 4.55M.  Generally favorable data, but the big jobs report tomorrow will give more information about high unemployment.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 42,000 to 415,000 Last Week



Major US retailers shrugged off the snowiest Jan in 6 years to post sales that blew past estimates, easing concerns that consumers were all spent out after the holidays.  Retailers posted a 4.2% increase in sales at stores open at least a year, beating expectations for a 2.7% gain & above a year-earlier rise of 3.3%.  However some cautioned against being too optimistic as unemployment remains high & the US economic recovery remains uncertain.  Many retailers managed their inventory well, meaning fewer clearance goods in a typically promotional month.  However, bad weather curbed shopper traffic in malls & stores, especially in the Northeast with multiple snowstorms.

Ahead of the jobs report on Fri, it's normal to expect little in the markets today.  Even red hot MLPs are feeling selling pressure, but this is rated as mild profit taking.  What is most interesting is the lack off interest in gold & Treasuries, regarded as safe haven investments.  It's difficult to imagine where else frightened money is going these days.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 weeks






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1 comment:

James Fowlkes said...

This Egypt situation isn't having nearly as profound of an affect on the markets as I would have expected, well except for oil prices. I figured markets would be tanking with all this turmoil. I wonder what would happen if the same thing were happening in Iran instead of Egypt.