Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Markets cautiously crawl higher after recent selling

Dow rose 77, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ gained 2.  The Financial Index added 1+ to the 209s. The MLP index was flat after recent selling & the REIT index was up a tad in the 257s.  Junk bond funds sold off & Treasuries were a little higher.  Oil & gold slipped a little. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.250%

U.S. 10-year

1.591%

CLZ12.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 12...85.01 ...Down 0.56  (0.7%)

GCX12.CMX...Gold Nov 12....1,721.10 ....Down 9.20  (0.5%)








Juncker, Lagarde Clash on Greece's Fiscal Timetable

Photo:   Bloomberg

Euro finance chiefs left unanswered how they’ll fill a fresh hole in Greece's  balance sheet without tapping their own bailout-weary taxpayers for money after giving the country 2 extra years to trim its budget deficit.  In the latest compromise in 3 years of crisis fighting, creditors led by Germany opted late yesterday to keep money flowing to Greece instead of risking a default that could lead to the nation’s exit from the euro & stir more turmoil for the countries that remain in euro bloc.  Greece has made “far-reaching decisions that go in the right direction,” German Finance Minister Schaeuble said.  He added that Greece’s aid program can be re-engineered to plug a financing gap of as much as €32.6B ($41B) without costing creditors a cent.  Prospects of a funding deal at a hastily scheduled Nov 20 meeting were clouded by objections from the IMF, which took issue with the ministers’ decision to postpone the goal of getting Greece’s debt down to a “sustainable” level of 120% of GDP by 2 years to 2022.  This debt mess is not being fixed, bad for the markets.



German Investor Confidence Unexpectedly Declined in November

Siemens, the biggest engineering company in Europe
Photo:   Bloomberg

Speaking fo Europe, German investor confidence unexpectedly declined in Nov as the sovereign debt crisis curbs growth in Europe's largest economy.  The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor & analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, fell to minus 15.7 from minus 11.5 in Oct.  That’s the first drop since Aug.  The forecast was for an increase to minus 10.  This report is the latest to suggest that the debt crisis is finally taking its toll on Germany.  Exports, factory orders & industrial production all fell more than forecast in Sep.  Growth ground to a near standstill in Q3, & the Bundesbank says the deterioration probably continued in Q4.  Europe has more than its share of problems.

German Investor Confidence Unexpectedly Fell in November

  • <p>               FILE - In this Aug. 14, 2012, file photo, a customer walks past building products at a Home Depot store in Nashville, Tenn.  A boost from the gradually recovering housing market helped Home Depot's net income edge up in its fiscal third quarter_the world's biggest home-improvement retailer said Tuesday, Nov. 13, 2012, that its net income rose to $947 million, or 63 cents per share for quarter that ended Oct. 28. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Home Depot, a Dow stock, stands to benefit as evidence mounts that the housing market is slowly improving.  CEO  Frank Blake said the slowly recovering housing market is reflected in results, although credit availability remains an issue.  "Our third-quarter results were better than we expected and reflected, in part, what we believe is the start of the path toward the healing of the housing market," he said.  He sees the housing market becoming "an assist to our growth rather than an anchor."  This statement signaled a "stronger tone" on the housing market.  EPS was 63¢. up from 60¢ a year earlier.  Excluding a charge for closing some stores in China, earnings were 74¢, topping the 70¢ per share that analysts.  Revenue rose more than 4% to $18.1B, above expectations of $17.9B.  For the year, HD expects EPS of $2.92, or $3.03 excluding the costs of closing stores in China, as revenue should climb 5.2%.  Based on 2011's revenue of $70.4 billion, this implies $74B.  Home Depot's prior forecast was for a 4.6% increase, which implied revenue of $73.63B.   The stock jumped 2.76 (5%).

Home Depot Profit Tops Estimates as Housing Market Heals

Home Depot (HD)


stock chart


Despite the rise in the Dow, markets are really just meandering.  HD is helping the Dow's advance.  But the chart above shows MLPs have seen a lot of selling recently.  The chart below shows it has also been a tough time for the Dow.  Bears remain in command with growing worries about going over the fiscal cliff & the euro mess shows no sign of relief.  This is a good time to hang on to cash. 

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart





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