Friday, November 16, 2012

Markets continue sliding on fiscal cliff worries

Dow slipped 31, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ fell 10.  The Financial Index lost 1 to 203.  The MLP index rebounded 4 to 374 & the REIT index was down a fraction to 250.  Junk bond funds found buyers & Treasuries inched higher.  Oil rose on MidEast tensions & gold was down a tad.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.238%

U.S. 10-year

1.581%

CLZ12.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 12...86.54 ...Up 1.09 (1.3%)

GCX12.CMX...Gold Nov 12.....1,712.50 ...Down 0.80  (0.1%)





Euro-area exports fell in Sep as the region’s economy slipped into a recession for the 2nd time in 4 years.  Exports from the bloc declined a 1.1% from Aug, when they gained 3.3%, the EU statistics office said.  Imports dropped 2.7% & the trade surplus widened to €11.3B ($14.4B) from a revised €8.9B in the previous month.  The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area is taking its toll on demand as govs impose budget cuts to narrow their fiscal deficits.  GDP fell 0.1% in Q3 after a 0.2% decline in Q2. Greece's economy has contracted for 17 straight qtrs & the Portuguese economy completed its 2nd year of quarterly contractions.  Exports from Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell 1.5% in Sep, while imports dropped 2.5%.  Italy & Spain reported export declines of 0.8% & 1.2%, respectively.  But shipments from France increased 1.6%.  The European Commission last week forecast that the euro- area economy will contract 0.4% this year & expand 0.1% next year.  It halved its 2013 forecast for growth in Germany to 0.8%, citing the debt crisis & weaker export demand.  More bad news for the stock markets.

Euro-Area Exports Fell in September as Economy Contracted


Industrial Production in U.S. Decreases 0.4% on Sandy Effect

Photo:   Bloomberg

US industrial production unexpectedly declined in Oct as superstorm Sandy knocked out power in the Northeast.  Output at factories, mines & utilities dropped 0.4% after a revised 0.2% increase in Sep that was smaller than previously estimated, according to the Federal Reserve (FED).  The forecast was for a 0.2% gain.  The FED said the storm cut total production by almost 1 percentage point.  American factories, a source of strength for much of the 3-year expansion, face a persistent challenge from Europe's recession & slower growth in Asia.  Further cutbacks in capital spending by companies concerned about the possibility of $607B in automatic tax increases & spending reductions next year represent another hurdle.  Manufacturing, which makes up 75% of production, slumped 0.9% last month, matching Aug as the biggest decrease since May 2009.  Factory output excluding the effects of Sandy was about unchanged in Oct from the prior month.



Dell Sales Forecast Misses Estimates Amid PC Slump

Photo:   Bloomberg

Dell forecast a 4th straight qtr of declining sales as diminishing demand for PCs overshadows the company’s efforts to diversify into more profitable products for data centers.  Fiscal Q4 revenue will be $14-14.4B, less than the $14.5B estimate by analysts. Last year’s Q4 revenue was $16B.  DELL the #3 PC maker, is struggling amid a deep slump in demand as companies wait to upgrade machines & consumers turn to smartphones & tablets to manage their work & personal lives.  The company still gets half of its sales from PCs.  PC shipments tumbled 8.3% in the calendar Q3 from a year earlier, according to market researcher Gartner & are projected to decline this year for the first time since 2001.  The company has spent $12.7B on 17 acquisitions since 2009.  Sales in the fiscal Q3 fell 11 % to $13.7B, less than average estimate of $13.9B.  Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2-5% from the prior period, the company. The stock slumped 70¢.

Dell Sales Forecast Misses Estimates in PC Industry Slump

Dell (DELL)


stock chart


Nothing really new in the markets.  Buyers are taking another day off because there is no reason to return.  The fiscal cliff will be kicked around for another month.  DC is deeply divided with no indication of an end in sight.  At least MLPs found a few buyers today, but that enthusiasm may not last long.  Dow is down a massive 1060 since its highs on Oct 17.  More pain lies ahead.  This time should be used to assess stocks & forecast lower  target prices.  Dividends remain a key driving force for successful investing.

Dow Jones Industrials


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