Monday, November 19, 2012

Markets surge on budget deal hopes

Dow shot up 207 (closing at the high), advancers ahead of decliners almost 7-1 & NAZ rose 62.  The Financial Index had a good day, up 3 to the 208s.  The Alerian MLP index shot up 7+ to 390 (up an eye-popping 20 in 2 days) & the REIT index gained 3+ to the 255s.  Junk bond funds were higher (although off their highs) & Treasuries pulled back, mildly.  Oil rose to the highest level in 4 weeks amid concern that MidEast unrest will disrupt supply & on growing confidence that a deal can be reached to avoid automatic US spending cuts & tax increases.  Gold rose the most in a week, tracking gains in commodities.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.610%

CLG13.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 13...89.82... Up 2.35 (2.7%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]





U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose in October to 4.79 Million Rate

Photo:    Bloomberg

Sales of previously owned US homes unexpectedly climbed in Oct, showing record-low mortgage rates are helping spur the economy.  Purchases of existing houses increased 2.1% to a 4.79M annual rate, exceeding the forecast, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Property values rose over the past 12 months by the most in 7 years as inventories dropped to the lowest level in almost a decade.  Gains in home prices are boosting consumer finances & sentiment, which in turn are underpinning the household spending that accounts for 70% of the economy.  Building companies say the outlook is improving as the market recovers from its worst slump in decades & foreclosures are whittled down.  The median price of an existing home climbed 11.1% over Oct 2011 to $179K, the biggest year-over-year gain since Nov 2005 & reflected a pickup in demand for more expensive properties.

Sales of Existing Homes Increase Unexpectedly in U.S.: Economy


Greece faces a tense wait tomorrow for vital bailout money as finance ministers from the EU try to reach an agreement on how to put the country's economic recovery back on the right track.  It is waiting for a €31.5B ($40B) loan, part of intl rescue packages worth €240B.  The loan was due to have been signed off last week at a meeting in Brussels.  However, that meeting ended without agreement on how to solve Greece's financial crisis.  Ministers decided to delay the loan, pushing the country closer to bankruptcy & a possible exit from the euro zone.  To receive the aid, Greece has had to impose strict austerity & reform measures.  2 weeks ago, the coalition gov narrowly succeeded in passing a €13.5B package of cuts, tax increases & reforms in order to secure the latest loan payment.  Weighed down by austerity, the country is mired in a deep recession heading into its 6th year with more 25% of Greeks unemployed.  The main aim of the bailout program is to right the country's economy & get it to a point where it no longer relies on intl aid & can independently raise money on the debt markets.  The bailout program was supposed to steadily reduce Greece's debt to a point where it reached 120% of its GDP.  The deadline for this target was 2020 but it's been clear for months that the country is way off track from achieving that.  Last week's meeting foundered on whether Greece should be given a 2-year extension to 2022 to reach the 120% target.  It did, however, decide to give Greece 2 more years to 2016 to impose the austerity measures & reform its economy.  Drama of the Greek debt mess drones on.

Greece fine tunes its austerity as it awaits loan AP


  • A contractor loads a bathroom vanity cabinet onto his truck after purchasing it at a Lowe's store in Burbank, California August 17, 2009. REUTERS/Fred Prouser
Photo:   Yahoo

Lowe's reported a higher-than-expected Q3 profit on in a sign its efforts to cut costs & improve its selection of home improvement items are working.  Preparation & rebuilding efforts tied to Superstorm Sandy& an improving housing market also boosted business.  LOW has cut jobs, curbed store expansion & streamlined its supply chain to reduce costs while reining in inventory.  "It gives the homeowner what I call the psychological permission to spend on their home because they feel better about what the home's going to be worth in the future," CEO Robert Niblock said.  Sales at stores open at least year rose 1.8% globally & in the US, after declining in Q2.  Sales rose 1.9% to $12.1B in its fiscal Q3, compared with the $11.9B forecast.  The company now expects sales for the fiscal year to be up 2%, excluding the effect of an extra week, compared with an earlier forecast of a 1% rise.  EPS was 35¢, up from 18¢ a year earlier.  Excluding some items like write-downs & a charge for a discontinued project, EPS was 40¢, 5¢ higher than the estimates.  LOW affirmed its outlook from Aug that full-year EPS would come to $1.64.  Q3 sales received a lift from people buying items like generators, flashlights & batteries ahead of Sandy, Niblock said.  But customers remain careful in their spending.  "They perceive the path to recovery to be a bumpy one," he added.  The stock was up $1.98.

Lowe’s Surges the Most in Three Years as Profit Tops Analysts’ Estimates

Lowe's (LOW)


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Markets are riding high on hopes for the politicos in DC to work out a deal on budget cuts & raising taxes.  However, DC remains sharply divided on how to do that.  The MLP index had a stellar 2 day pop, but that was after plunging 35 in 7 trading days.  The € at $1.28+ is up a penny in the last 4 days, although 3¢ below its highs a month ago.  Volatility is up on wilder emotional swings by traders.  Hard to tell where that leaves us, but the DC debate is still just muddling along while the fate of Greece is uncertain ahead of the big meeting tomorrow.  Apple (AAPL) had a whopper gain of 38, after being vastly oversold, giving an added boost to NAZ. 

Dow Jones Industrials


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