Friday, November 9, 2012

Markets meander after the President announces fiscal cliff talkss

Dow edged up 4 (with selling in the last hour & closing near its lows), decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ gained 9, helped by a rise in Apple (AAPL) stock.  The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 208s.  The MLP index dropped 4+  to the 391s (near a 4 month low) & the REIT slipped a fraction to 262.  Junk bond funds were generally lower & Treasuries wee about even.  Oil found buyers in the PM.  Gold capped the biggest weekly gain since Jan as speculation that the US will expand monetary stimulus following the election bolstered demand for the metal as a store of value

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

1.613%

CLZ12.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 12...86.06 ...Up 0.97 (1.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]







Photo:   Yahoo

President Obama invited business & congressional leaders of both parties to the White House next week for talks on how to avoid the "fiscal cliff."  "It's time to get back to work," he said.  Obama announced the invitations as he addressed the nation on actions needed to avoid harsh economic consequences from a looming combination of tax increases & spending cuts. But Obama pressed his plan to raise taxes for the wealthiest Americans.  "I'm open to compromise. I'm open to new ideas," Obama said.  "But I refuse to accept any approach that isn't balanced. I'm not going to ask students and seniors and middle class families to pay down the entire deficit while people like me making over $250,000 aren't asked to pay a dime more in taxes."  He urged Congress to act, including passing a bill that would prevent Bush-era tax cuts from expiring for all but the wealthiest Americans.  He said the plan must spur jobs & economic growth.  While the talks are under way, he called for extending the middle class tax cuts now.  Earlier, House Speaker Boehner said he was "hopeful" that Reps & the administration can resolve the fiscal crisis.  "This is an opportunity for the president to lead," he said.  "I'm proposing that we avert the fiscal cliff together in a manner that ensures that 2013 is finally the year that our government comes to grips with the major problems that are facing us," Boehner said.  He continued that it's possible for Obama to propose legislation that can pass both chambers of Congress.  "I think we both understand that trying to find a way for our country to avert the fiscal cliff is important for our country, and I'm hopeful that productive conversations will begin soon so we can forge an agreement that can pass the Congress,"  Boehner said.  Boehner called for tax & entitlement reforms, but still opposed returning to higher tax rates for the richest Americans.  "Everything on the revenue side and the spending side has to be looked at," said Boehner.  That's where the fiscal cliff stands right now.

Obama Says Tax Increases on Top Earners Must Happen


Greece will issue short-term debt Tues to make a key bond repayment on Nov 16, when it is not yet expected to have received the next batch of rescue loans.  It will issue €2.1B ($2.7B) in treasury bills with the unusually short maturity of 4 weeks.  Then it will sell another €1B in 13-week bills, the Greek Public Debt Management Agency said.  Greece's Parliament last week passed hugely unpopular new cutbacks demanded by the country's bailout creditors in exchange for another €31.5B in rescue loans.  But Greece is not expected to get the money next week, as it had initially hoped, because European officials need time to study a report on Greece's public finances.  The report will be delivered by debt inspectors to eurozone finance ministers on Mon.  That means Greece must raise over €5B by Nov 16 to repay maturing 3-month treasury bills.  Greek authorities hope the bill auction will be oversubscribed, allowing the gov to raise the full sum.  This auction would offer the shortest term debt issue since Greece was shut out of long term debt markets in 2010.  While unusual, it is necessary because Greece is desperate!

Greece to raise cash on markets amid bailout delay AP

  • <p>               In this Thursday, Sept. 27, 2012 photo, a container ship passes the Florida Power & Light Port Everglades Plant on its way to unload its cargo at Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. U.S. wholesale businesses increased their stockpiles in September at the fastest pace in nine months and their sales jumped by the largest amount in 18 months, the Commerce Department announced Friday, Nov. 9, 2012. The increases point to stronger economic growth. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Photo:   Yahoo

US wholesale businesses increased stockpiles in Sep at the fastest pace in 9 months & their sales jumped by the largest amount in 18 months, suggesting the economy grew faster over the summer than first estimated.  Wholesale stockpiles grew 1.1% in Sep, according to the Commerce Dept, up from an 0.8% increase in Aug (which was revised higher).  Sales at the wholesale level rose 2% in Sep, double the Aug gain & the largest increase since Mar 2011.  Faster inventory growth is expected to prompt the gov to raise the Q3 economic growth estimate from the 2% annual rate reported last month.  When businesses order more goods, it generally leads to more factory production & that boosts economic growth.  Recent reports suggest economic growth was stronger over the summer than first thought.  Stockpiles climbed to $494B in Sep, 28% above a Sep 2009 post-recession low. 

US wholesale stockpiles grew 1.1 pct. in September AP


At lunchtime, the pres gave his proposal for talks next week to resolve the fiscal cliff mess.  The markets sold off & the Dow finished 75 below its highs just prior to his speech.  This mess did not arise last week out of nowhere.  The deadline was agreed to in the middle of last year & nobody has done anything until now.  Can you spell "NOTHING."  He talked about not raising taxes on the little guys, bottom 98%.  That's BULL.  Make no mistake, taxes on the middle class are already going up next year because they have already been approved.  For example, the threshold on medical exemptions will go up from 7½% to 10% of adjusted gross.  All kinds of medical devices will be taxed.  Then there is the reduced social security tax everybody has gotten used to over the last 2 years.  That tax has not been set for next year.  I'm not a tax expert, but there are plenty of other taxes that are already programmed to go up or take effect next year.  Fiscal cliff talks are aimed at "other" taxes & budget cuts.  This is getting to be an ugly situation because DC is so deeply divided.  From a depressed level last Fri, Dow lost another 278 this week.  DC uncertainty & a worsening situation for Greece could bring more selling next week.

Dow Jones Industrials


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