Thursday, September 4, 2014

Markets drift lower ahead of August jobs report

Dow pulled back 8 on late day selling, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ lost 10.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 533s on profit taking & the REIT index was off fractionally to the 311s.  Junk bond funds lost ground & Treasuries retreated.  Oil sank after yesterday's advance & gold hardly budged.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)











CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14....94.27 Down ...1.27  (1.3%)

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Companies took on fewer workers than projected in Aug, a sign that recent momentum in the US labor market may be easing.  The 204K increase in employment followed a 212K gain the prior month that was smaller than initially estimated, according to ADP Research Institute.  The forecast called for an advance of 220K.  Employers are probably confident that, after accelerating hiring for most of this year, they can meet demand without adding as many workers.  While employment opportunities have picked up, they haven’t been accompanied by the stronger wage growth that would help spark bigger gains in consumer spending & economic growth.  Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers & construction companies, increased headcount by 41K & construction employment climbed 15K.  Factory payrolls rose by 23K & payrolls at service providers increased by 164K.  Companies employing 500 or more workers added 52K jobs.  Employment at businesses with 50-499 employees increased 75K & the smallest companies boosted payrolls by 78K.  “Steady as she goes in the job market,” Moody’s Analytics said (Moody’s produces the figures with ADP).  “Job gains are broad-based across industries and company sizes.”  The ADP report is based on data from businesses with more than 21M workers on their combined payrolls.

Private Payrolls in U.S. Climb Less Than Forecast in August


Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Narrows to Lowest in Six Months
Photo:   Bloomberg

The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in Jul to the lowest level in 6 months as exports climbed to a record.  The gap shrank 0.6% to $40.5B, the smallest since Jan, from a revised $40.8B in Jun that was narrower than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a widening to $42.4B.  Sales to foreign customers climbed 0.9% on growing demand for American autos & petroleum products.  Sales of American products to countries such as Mexico, Brazil & the UK helped make up for slowing purchases from the EU, one reason US manufacturing has been picking up.  Spurred by steady job growth, gains in consumer spending & business investment are also giving a lift to imports.  Exports climbed to $198B from $196.2B in Jun.  Shipments of goods, including autos & non-petroleum products, were the highest on record.  Imports increased 0.7% to $238.6B from $237B in the prior month as Americans bought more autos & crude oil.  Sales of US petroleum products swamped purchases of foreign crude, leaving the trade gap on the fuel at the lowest level since May 2009.  After eliminating the effects of price fluctuations, which generates the numbers used to calculate GDP, the trade deficit shrank to $48.2B, the smallest since Dec, from $48.9B in Jun.  The economy grew faster than previously thought in Q2, 4.2% annualized, thanks in part to a smaller trade deficit.  The trade gap with China climbed 2.7% to a record $30.9B.

Trade Gap in U.S. Unexpectedly Narrows to Six-Month Low


Johnson & Johnson, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, will fast-track the development of a new combination vaccine regimen against Ebola amid a race to combat the worst outbreak of the deadly disease on record.  The company will collaborate with Denmark-based biotech company Bavarian Nordic & the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases.  They are working toward starting a clinical trial in humans in early 2015.  The Ebola outbreak in Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone & Nigeria has sickened more than 3½K, killing almost 2K, more than all previous outbreaks combined, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).  The number of cases may exceed 20K before the epidemic is controlled, the WHO said.  WHO advisers determined last month that experimental treatments against Ebola are ethical to use to help infected patients.  The National Institutes of Health & GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are also developing an experimental vaccine, with US scientists set to enroll patients in safety trials.  JNJ stock went up pennies.  If you would like to learn more about JNJ, click on this link:
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J&J to Accelerate Ebola Vaccine Development as Death Toll Rises

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)




Even massive European stimulus was unable to attract enough buyers for Dow to reach a new record in a tired stock market.  Tomorrow’s gov jobs report will be a major factor in the AM & today's ADP report suggests it may be less optimistic than forecast.  These reports are reminders that consumer income has risen slowly during the economic recovery, & that pinches consumer spending.  Foreign policy has been a disaster for months, highlighted by the conflict in Ukraine & continuous unrest in the MidEast which threatens countries round the world.  However Dow & S&P 500 are priced to perfection, assuming little can go wrong.  That's called a disconnect.

Dow Jones Industrials



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