Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Markets slip lower on international uncertainties

Dow slid 36, decliners over advancers almost 3-2 & NAZ fell 3.  The Alerian MLP index fell 1+ to 528 after yesterday's big tumble & the REIT index was up a fraction in the 295s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries rose on intl tensions.  Oil & gold inched higher from their low depths.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLF15.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 15...90.10 Down ...0.01  (0.0%)

GCQ15.CMX...Gold Aug 15....1,225.00 Up ...4.10 (0.3%)


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US launches air strikes against Isil in Syria
Photo:   Bloomberg

The US & its Arab allies launched a series of airstrikes against Islamic State positions in Syria, a major expansion of pres Obama's effort to destroy the Sunni extremist group.  Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar & Bahrain “participated in or supported” strikes against 14 Islamic State targets near their stronghold of Raqqa & along the Iraqi border, the Pentagon said.  Fighter jets, bomber aircraft & Tomahawk missiles were being used in an ongoing operation.  The US & allies are seeking to reverse the advances of Islamic State, which has seized a swath of territory across Iraq & Syria.  That has prompted alarm among neighboring nations, including the Sunni Arab monarchies taking part in the operation.  The Pentagon had previously limited its airstrikes to targets in Iraq.   The US also launched 8 strikes against the Khorasan Group, a militant organization the Pentagon said was made up of a “network of seasoned al-Qaeda veterans” who are plotting an “imminent attack” against US & Western interests.  No further details were given.  Within hours of the airstrikes, Islamic State posted online a new video showing British hostage John Cantlie, in which the photographer warned the US & allies that they were embarking on “Gulf War III,” adding that “not since Vietnam have we witnessed such a potential mess in the making.”  It is unclear when the video was made.  Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, warned about the “clandestine aims” of the US & its allies.  These were the “same countries which have conspired against Syria for more than three years,” al-Moallem said shortly before the airstrikes yesterday.  The US informed Syria’s UN envoy yesterday that the strikes would take place, Syria’s state-run television reported, citing the Foreign Ministry.

U.S. Enlists Arab Allies for First Airstrikes in Syria


BEIJING ECONOMY
Photo:    Bloomberg

China's economy remained stuck in “low gear” in Q3, with struggling retail & residential real-estate industries countering improvements in manufacturing & transportation, a private survey showed.  Growth in investment slowed further, borrowing costs rose & the share of firms applying for & getting bank loans remained at “rock bottom levels,” according to the China Beige Book, a report published quarterly by China Beige Book Intl . In contrast, hiring picked up & corp profit margins improved, suggesting widespread gov efforts to reignite growth are unlikely, it said.  “The absence of deteriorating conditions for most firms, both in terms of hiring and margins, does much to explain Beijing’s reluctance to introduce more large-scale stimulus,” Leland Miller, China Beige Book Intl pres, said.  Banks reduced their economic growth forecasts after data for Aug showed the weakest industrial-output expansion since the global financial crisis & a 40% drop in the broadest measure of new credit.  Premier Li Keqiang reiterated this month that the gov will stick to targeted easing & can’t rely on monetary stimulus to spur growth.  A preliminary Sep reading of a manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index due today will give a further indication of the state of the economy. The gauge’s Aug number fell to a 3-month low & a separate PMI from the gov also dropped.

China Beige Book Shows Economy Stuck in Low Gear


German manufacturing expanded at the slowest pace in 15 months in Sep as new orders fell, signaling uneven momentum in Europe's largest economy.  Markit Economics said its Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.3 from 51.4 in Aug, the weakest since Jun 2013.  The forecast calleld for a drop to 51.2.  A gauge of services rose to 55.4 from 54.9, offsetting the drop in factory output & pushing the composite index up to 54 from 53.7.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion.  The data add to the uncertainty facing the German economy.  While GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q2, the Bundesbank said yesterday that positive Jul data had dispelled fears of an abrupt end to the country’s upturn.  In Jun, the central bank predicted growth of 1.9% this year & 2% in 2015.  A gauge of new orders at factories contracted for the first time since Jun 2013, falling to 48.8 from 51.1.  Confidence in the economy has declined in recent months as tensions with Russia threatened trade & a slowing recovery in the euro-area dimmed export prospects.  The Ifo institute’s business climate index, due for release tomorrow, will probably show sentiment at companies fell to the lowest in 16 months in Sep.  ECB Pres Mario Draghi said yesterday that policy makers can implement more stimulus if required to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area.

German Factory Growth at 15-Month Low in Sign of Uneven Economy


The war, or whatever DC calls it, has started & stocks are little disturbed.  But drab economic data from 2 major economies is not heartwarming to the bulls.  The US economy is also just bumbling along with an upward bias.  That is not what is expected when the Dow & S&P 500 are inches from record levels with hardly a worry in sight.   However Dow is also back to where it was in mid Jun.  Investors who have been spoiled with years of easy gains must be disappointed.

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