Monday, October 5, 2015

Markets rise even though service-sector growth is weak

Dow gained 184, advancers over decliners better than 6-1 & NAZ added 49.  The MLP index jumped up another 8+ to the 336s (a startling 57 above the lows last week) & the REIT index added 3+ to go over 310.  Junk bond funds rose with higher stock values & Treasuries pulled back .  Oil has a solid gain to the 46s while gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLX15.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 15...46.48 Up ...0.94 (2.2%)

GCV15.CMX...Gold Oct 15......1,139.20 Up ...2.10 (0.2%)











The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector growth fell to 56.9 in Sep from 59 in Aug.  The reading was lower than the 57.5 the estimate & is the lowest reading since June.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Gauge Misses Estimate


The euro region’s economic recovery risks faltering after growth momentum eased in Sep, Markit Economics said.  A Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing & services fell to 53.6 in Sep from 54.3 in Aug, below a Sep 23 preliminary reading of 53.9.  A print above 50 indicates expansion.  Policy makers have pointed to challenges from weaker global growth to stubbornly high unemployment that could harm the currency bloc’s fragile revival.  The ECB is struggling with the fallout of a slump in energy prices that is countering the effects of its quantitative-easing program.  “The failure of the economy to pick up speed over the summer will be a disappointment to the ECB, especially with job creation sliding to an eight-month low,” Markit said.  “The weakening of the pace of expansion in September raises the risk of growth fading further in the fourth quarter, which would in turn boost the likelihood of the ECB opening the QE taps further.”  The euro-area inflation rate fell to minus 0.1% in Sep.  Even so, the region’s economy probably expanded 0.4% in Q3.  New business increased last month & backlogs of work rose at the fastest pace in more than 4 years.  Spain was probably one of the region’s strongest performers, with a PMI index pointing to growth of at least 0.8%.  Similar gauges suggest that Germany, Italy & France expanded by 0.4%, 0.3% & 0.2%, respectively.

Euro-Area Growth Under Pressure


Chinese stocks in Hong Kong rose to a 2-week high as casino operators extended gains on targeted gov support & traders pushed back estimates for the timing of higher US interest rates.  The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 2% to 9883, its highest close since Sep 21.  Gaming companies surged after reports that China may move to bolster the city’s economy, & figures showed a jump in Chinese visitors to Macau. Glencore soared as much as 72%, the most on record, after reports that the Swiss commodities trader is talking to potential buyers for its agriculture business.  Mainland markets will remain shut until Oct 8 for National Day holidays.  Chinese policy makers are increasing targeted stimulus after reductions in interest-rate & reserve ratio requirement failed to reverse an economic slowdown.  The nation’s growth will slow to 6.8% this year, below the gov goal of 7%, according to estimates.  The People’s Bank of China reduced the minimum home down payment for first-time buyers in cities without purchase restrictions last week, buoying shares of developers.

Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Rise on Stimulus, U.S. Rate Outlook


Traders are feeling good today & taking stocks higher.  It looks like the service sector data is leading to expectations that the rate rate will be postponed for one more meeting, if not longer.  Let's see how markets behave in the PM.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart
 





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