Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Markets climb after Beige Book report

Dow jumped 237, advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ gained 102.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 231s & the REIT index added 2+ to 411.  Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries crawled a little higher, bringing lower yields.  Oil surged 2+ to the 56s & gold added 6  to 1562, a new 6+ year high.

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The US economy expanded at a modest pace from Jun-Aug, despite looming concerns about the US-China trade war, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.  Almost all of the Fed's 12 districts reported modest growth over the past few months, the Fed said in its region-by-region roundup of anecdotal information known as the Beige Book.  The report, prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, was based on information collected thru Aug 23.  "Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook," the report said.  Overall, wages grew at a modest pace, on par with the previous reporting period.  Employment varied across industries, but manufacturing -- often used as a telltale sign of an impending recession -- remained relatively flat across the different districts.  Since the last reporting period, districts indicated modest price increases, with retailers & manufacturers reporting slight increases in input costs.  Some districts anticipated tariffs -- currently, the US imposes a tariff on more than $350B worth of Chinese goods, with more to come -- won't directly affect consumers for a few months.  The most recent round, however, — a 15%t tariff on $112B worth of goods, most of it concentrated on items like footwear, clothing & textiles — spurred fears about how the trade war will ultimately affect American consumers.  Until then, most US imports of clothing & shoes from China have been spared.  Meanwhile, agricultural conditions remained weak -- a direct result of bad weather, low commodity prices & trade uncertainties.  Consumer spending appeared mixed across the districts, although auto sales were fairly solid across the board.  Policymakers at the central bank will study the report ahead of their Sep 17-18 FOMC meeting, during which they're widely expected to lower interest rates by a modest qtr of a percentage point.  In Jul, the Fed voted to lower the interbank lending rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

FED BEIGE BOOK REPORTS MODEST SUMMER GROWTH, DESPITE RECESSION FEARS


China officially filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization in response to the US raising tariffs from 10% to 15% on $300B of Chinese goods.  In its complaint, China asks the WTO to facilitate “consultations” with the US to reduce or end the tariffs.  The filing comes after the US on Sun put tariffs on $112B worth of Chinese goods, including footwear, clothing & textiles.  The new tariffs mean 69% of consumer goods will face an import duty, up from 29%.  China responded to the tariffs by hitting $75B of US goods with additional tariffs, including for the first time putting a 5% tariff on crude oil.  The US & China have been engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war that has gone on for more than a year.  The US has slapped tariffs on more than $350B of Chinese goods & has plans to levy taxes on roughly another $200B of goods.  China has put tariffs on $185B of US goods.  "They want to make a deal," Pres Trump said at the White House, when asked about China & trade.  "We’ll see what happens.”

China slaps US with trade war complaint

Gold futures shook off earlier losses to finish at a fresh 6-year peak, buoyed by economic worries & weakness in the $.  Dec gold added $4.50 (0.3%) to settle at $1560 an ounce, after surging 1.7% yesterday, closing around the highest for a most-active contract since Apr 2013   Prices for the yellow metal had spent part of the session trading lower, pressured by a rebound in global equity markets on the back of signs that tensions in Hong Kong, a source of global anxieties, were momentarily easing.  Coloring financial trading earlier in the day was the announcement by Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, that said she would formally withdraw the extradition bill that sparked a months long series of demonstrations that hurt the territory's economy & threatened to disrupt global financial markets.
 

Gold settles higher, extends climb to 6-year high; silver ends at loftiest level since 2016


Data from the Beige Book report was reasonably good.  More Aug monthly data is coming in the next few days along with the jobs data on Fri.  Chances are that the numbers will be mediocre, good but short of great as the US-China talks drag on.

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