Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Markets tumble after US-China trade war escalates

Dow sank 370, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ dropped 82.  The MLP index pulled back 2+ to the 228s while the REIT index rose 3 to the 406s (a new record).  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasury yields declined, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 1.45% (near record lows).  Oil fell 2+ to 53 & gold  soared 22 to 1522.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil53.31
  - 1.79 -3.3%

GC=FGold   1,545.70
+16.30+1.1%






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US-China trade relations took a turn for the worse when China's Commerce Ministry said it would sue thru the World Trade Organization dispute settlement mechanism.  “China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and resolutely defend the multilateral trading system and the international trade order,” China’s Commerce Ministry said, days after the 2 countries raised tariffs on one another's goods.  Stock futures were sharply lower following the announcement.

CHINA SAYS IT WILL SUE THE US OVER TARIFFS THROUGH WTO


Pres Trump said the US is doing “very well” in trade negotiations with China & that a trade deal would be even tougher if he was re-elected & the 2 nations still had not reached an agreement.  “While I am sure they would love to be dealing with a new administration so they could continue their practice of “ripoff USA” ($600 B/year), 16 months PLUS is a long time to be hemorrhaging jobs and companies on a long-shot,” Trump tweeted.  In a subsequent tweet, the pres said trade talks would get sterner if he won a 2nd term & China did not come to the table.  “And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER! In the meantime, China’s Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!”  Trump criticized the EU as well, saying the bloc also treats the US “very” unfairly on trade.  For all of the “geniuses” out there, many who have been in other administrations & “taken to the cleaners” by China, that want me to get together with the EU & others to go after China Trade practices remember, the EU & all treat us VERY unfairly on Trade also. Will change!

Trump warns China about delaying trade talks

Trade negotiators for the US & China have yet to agree on when they will next meet for talks according to leakers.  The Trade Representative (USTR) has not responded to a request for comment.  Trump said yesterday that Sep talks were still on track.  "We are talking to China. The meeting is still on, as you know, in September," Trump said on the South Lawn of the White House. "That hasn't changed. They haven't changed it, we haven't. We'll see what happens, but we can't allow China to rip us off any more as a country."  Separately, the USTR asked the public to comment on how foreign trade barriers are affecting US exports.  The office said it wants the public's help in identifying “significant barriers to U.S. exports of goods and services, U.S. foreign direct investment, and the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights.”  The public comments will inform an annual report.  “The inventory facilitates U.S. negotiations aimed at reducing or eliminating these barriers and is a valuable tool in enforcing U.S. trade laws and strengthening the rules-based trading system,” the USTR said.  The US began taxing $112B in Chinese imports at 15%.  China hit back by taxing certain US imports at 10% & 5%.

US-China trade talks hit scheduling snag: Report

As the trade war drags on, there are mounting questions over how much longer American farmers can wait it out.  Pers Trump has pledged to stand by the farmers as trade tensions with China escalate & fears about the US agriculture industry grow.   Pres Trump tweeted that aid is coming as a deal with Brazil is on the way.  The US agriculture industry has been a centerpiece of the trade spat with China, as the world's 2nd-largest economy is one of the American farm industry's top buyers.  The US put new tariffs into effect last Sat, charging 15% tax on $112B of Chinese imports.

Trump says Brazil and South American trade deal to help farmers


European manufacturing activity contracted for the 7th month in a row, data published today revealed, with British factories posting the sharpest drop in output for 7 years, reigniting fears about a global growth slowdown.  The PMI (purchasing managers' index) showed that although eurozone manufacturing activity inched up slightly to 47 in Aug (up from 46.5 in Jul), it remained well within contraction territory.  It marked the 2nd-lowest reading since Apr 2013.  Only France, Greece & the Netherlands recorded any growth in new order books, while Germany continued to record the biggest monthly drop.  Meanwhile, the UK PMI plummeted to 47.4 from 48, & came in a full point lower than expected.  The plunge came amid concerns about the increased possibility of a no-deal Brexit at the end of Oct.  Manufacturing is one of several closely watched indicators of a looming recession.  Germany, Italy, France & the UK are already struggling economically, teetering on the brink of a recession.  In Apr, the IMF cut its global growth outlook to the lowest pace since the financial crisis began 12 years ago.  “This is a delicate moment” for the global economy, the IMF's chief economist warned, citing precarious trade negotiations between the US & China, as well as uncertainty surrounding Britain's planned departure from the EU, which is slated to happen in Oct.

European manufacturing stutters as global slowdown fears mount


Trading in Sep, the weakest month of the year, began with heavy selling in stocks.  Domestic news is concerned with Dorian & the boat tragedy in California.  However traders are looking overseas & that story is dismal.  After more than a year of trade negotiations with China, bad has gone to worse.  Adding to worries, the biggest Euro economies are flirting with recession looking data.  All this is bringing on selling with much of that money going into safe have investments, gold & Treasuries.  Sep has the makings of a very dreary month for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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