Dow rose 73, advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ fell 3. The MLP index crawled higher in the 233s & the REIT index fell 5+ to 401. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to 1.7%. Oil slid lower in the 57s & gold dropped 14 to 1496 (more below on the decline in gold).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, kicked off its annual fall product launch where it unveiled new iPhones, Apple Watches & iPads, as well as new details about Apple TV+ & Apple Arcade. The company debuted a trio of new smartphones, including the $699 iPhone 11, the $999 iPhone 11 Pro & the $1,099 iPhone 11 Pro Max. All 3 devices appear similar to their predecessors, but AAPL has upgraded their respective camera systems to allow for wide-angle photos, while making improvements under the hood that result in a longer battery life & faster performance than before. It also rolled out the Watch Series 5, which starts at $399 & features a new always-on display. Even so, the device is able to maintain 18-hour battery life, which is possible due to an OLED display technology that was specially created by AAPL. Prior to that, the company surprised viewers with a new 7th generation iPad, which is priced at $329 & includes a 10.2" display. In addition to new hardware, AAPL also revealed launch dates & pricing for its much-anticipated Apple TV+ & Apple Arcade subscription services. Both services cost $4.99 per month, which undercuts competitors. The stock went up 2.53 after the product announcement.
If you would like to learn more about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
The labor market & the broader economy are both better than they look on the surface, & have been mostly defying the continual patter of recession expectations. By multiple measures, the US is staying ahead of the global slowdown, the trade war with China & the bond market's implication that the decade-long recovery after the financial crisis is coming to a close. Though the major stock averages wobbled around breakeven yesterday, stocks are back near record highs as investors shrug off the wave of fear. One gauge in particular shows how much the economy has defied downbeat forecasts. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, after nearing its lowest level in 2 years in Jun, this week was at its highest point since Feb. The index looks at actual economic readings against consensus forecasts, so it will rise when expectations are too low & fall when optimism runs too strong. The latest move, then, can be seen as a recalibration of overriding pessimism. Markets widely expect the central bank to cut its benchmark overnight lending rate by a qtr percentage point next week, likely citing low inflation, tariff uncertainty & weakness in Europe & China. However, the news from home might limit the Fed's desire to keep cutting. Fri's nonfarm payrolls report might have provided headline fodder for those, like Pres Trump, who believe the Fed should be significantly looser with policy. But a closer look at the number chose a far more resilient labor market. The total job growth came in at 130K, which missed the meager expectations of 150K & was just 96K when eliminating the gains in gov payrolls, thanks mostly to Census hiring. Aug is a notoriously noisy payrolls month, often subject to substantial revisions. In 2018, the initial count of 201K ultimately ended up at 282K, 2017's started at 156K & ended at 187K & 2011 was notorious for registering a zero on first release that ultimately came in at 122K. The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for Jul — the reading runs a month behind nonfarm payrolls — showed there are still 1.17M more job openings than available workers. Hires outnumbered separations by 194K & the quits level, which measures employees who voluntarily left their jobs & is considered a yardstick for worker confidence, rose by 130K, up 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%. Finally, yesterday's National Federation of Independent Business Survey, which polls small businesses, found that 57% of all respondents reported that finding qualified workers remains their biggest staffing challenge.
The economic numbers are continuing to defy the recession hype
Gold futures fell to settle under the psychologically significant $1500-an-ounce mark, the lowest in 5 weeks, as a continued rebound by bond yields dulled the metal’s appeal. Gold for Dec declined $11 (0.8%) to settle at $1499 an ounce. That was the first settlement under $1500 & lowest finish for a most-active contract since Aug.6. Prices also logged a 4th straight session decline. Concerns about the US-China trade battle appear to have moved to the back burner for investors after being blamed for volatile market action in Aug. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin yesterday said that he views renewed discussions with Beijing as a sign of good faith. Investors were shunning Treasuries, another traditional haven, with yields on the rise. Gold had rallied in Aug & early Sep to hit a string of more-than-6 year highs on haven-related flows that lifted the yellow metal & knocked down bond yields. Lower yields are seen as a boon for gold, lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Gold settles under $1,500, at lowest in 5 weeks
Stock averages were in the red until the last ½ hour when buying lifted the Dow into a solid gain & the NAZ near breakeven. The Dow is up 500 in Sep in what is traditionally the worst month of the year for stocks. However, there is a lot going on with intl trade. The big trade deal with Canada & Mexico still needs approval by congress & that is looking uncertain. And the China deal looks to be a long way off. But economic data above suggests the economy is doing better than negative thinkers give it credit for which keeps stock buyers interested in adding to their portfolios.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, kicked off its annual fall product launch where it unveiled new iPhones, Apple Watches & iPads, as well as new details about Apple TV+ & Apple Arcade. The company debuted a trio of new smartphones, including the $699 iPhone 11, the $999 iPhone 11 Pro & the $1,099 iPhone 11 Pro Max. All 3 devices appear similar to their predecessors, but AAPL has upgraded their respective camera systems to allow for wide-angle photos, while making improvements under the hood that result in a longer battery life & faster performance than before. It also rolled out the Watch Series 5, which starts at $399 & features a new always-on display. Even so, the device is able to maintain 18-hour battery life, which is possible due to an OLED display technology that was specially created by AAPL. Prior to that, the company surprised viewers with a new 7th generation iPad, which is priced at $329 & includes a 10.2" display. In addition to new hardware, AAPL also revealed launch dates & pricing for its much-anticipated Apple TV+ & Apple Arcade subscription services. Both services cost $4.99 per month, which undercuts competitors. The stock went up 2.53 after the product announcement.
If you would like to learn more about AAPL, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AAPL?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
The labor market & the broader economy are both better than they look on the surface, & have been mostly defying the continual patter of recession expectations. By multiple measures, the US is staying ahead of the global slowdown, the trade war with China & the bond market's implication that the decade-long recovery after the financial crisis is coming to a close. Though the major stock averages wobbled around breakeven yesterday, stocks are back near record highs as investors shrug off the wave of fear. One gauge in particular shows how much the economy has defied downbeat forecasts. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, after nearing its lowest level in 2 years in Jun, this week was at its highest point since Feb. The index looks at actual economic readings against consensus forecasts, so it will rise when expectations are too low & fall when optimism runs too strong. The latest move, then, can be seen as a recalibration of overriding pessimism. Markets widely expect the central bank to cut its benchmark overnight lending rate by a qtr percentage point next week, likely citing low inflation, tariff uncertainty & weakness in Europe & China. However, the news from home might limit the Fed's desire to keep cutting. Fri's nonfarm payrolls report might have provided headline fodder for those, like Pres Trump, who believe the Fed should be significantly looser with policy. But a closer look at the number chose a far more resilient labor market. The total job growth came in at 130K, which missed the meager expectations of 150K & was just 96K when eliminating the gains in gov payrolls, thanks mostly to Census hiring. Aug is a notoriously noisy payrolls month, often subject to substantial revisions. In 2018, the initial count of 201K ultimately ended up at 282K, 2017's started at 156K & ended at 187K & 2011 was notorious for registering a zero on first release that ultimately came in at 122K. The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for Jul — the reading runs a month behind nonfarm payrolls — showed there are still 1.17M more job openings than available workers. Hires outnumbered separations by 194K & the quits level, which measures employees who voluntarily left their jobs & is considered a yardstick for worker confidence, rose by 130K, up 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%. Finally, yesterday's National Federation of Independent Business Survey, which polls small businesses, found that 57% of all respondents reported that finding qualified workers remains their biggest staffing challenge.
The economic numbers are continuing to defy the recession hype
Gold futures fell to settle under the psychologically significant $1500-an-ounce mark, the lowest in 5 weeks, as a continued rebound by bond yields dulled the metal’s appeal. Gold for Dec declined $11 (0.8%) to settle at $1499 an ounce. That was the first settlement under $1500 & lowest finish for a most-active contract since Aug.6. Prices also logged a 4th straight session decline. Concerns about the US-China trade battle appear to have moved to the back burner for investors after being blamed for volatile market action in Aug. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin yesterday said that he views renewed discussions with Beijing as a sign of good faith. Investors were shunning Treasuries, another traditional haven, with yields on the rise. Gold had rallied in Aug & early Sep to hit a string of more-than-6 year highs on haven-related flows that lifted the yellow metal & knocked down bond yields. Lower yields are seen as a boon for gold, lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Gold settles under $1,500, at lowest in 5 weeks
Stock averages were in the red until the last ½ hour when buying lifted the Dow into a solid gain & the NAZ near breakeven. The Dow is up 500 in Sep in what is traditionally the worst month of the year for stocks. However, there is a lot going on with intl trade. The big trade deal with Canada & Mexico still needs approval by congress & that is looking uncertain. And the China deal looks to be a long way off. But economic data above suggests the economy is doing better than negative thinkers give it credit for which keeps stock buyers interested in adding to their portfolios.
Dow Jones Industrials
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