Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Markets edge higher on increasing trade optimism

Dow rose 60 (in the 2nd hour of trading it was sliding lower), decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ added 7.  The MLP index fell 2 to the 237s & the REIT index crawled higher in the 408s.  Junk bond funds gained ground & Treasuries were purchased.  Oil dropped 1 to the 57s & gold gave back 1 to 1530.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil57.99
-0.65-1.1%

GC=FGold   1,524.60
-6.90-0.5%






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Stocks gained after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin confirmed that China-US trade talks would resume in 2 weeks.  "The president's been very clear if we can get the right deal, he wants the deal," he said.  "If we can't get the right deal, he's happy with the tariffs."  The early gains have traders keeping an eye on the record levels that were set in Jul.  Buying of Treasuries pushed the 10-year yield down 3.2 basis points to 1.697%.  Commodities were weaker with West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 0.9% at $58.16 a barrel & gold lower by 0.2% near $1526 an ounce.  In Europe, all of major averages clung to small gains.  Overnight, China's Shanghai Composite paced the advance with a 0.8% gain. Japan's Nikkei inched higher & Hong Kong's Hang Seng tacked on 0.3%.

Stocks surge as trade optimism grows

In the on-again, off-again world of trade talks, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said US-China trade talks will resume in 2 weeks in DC.  During an interview, Mnuchin clarified how the trade negotiations are going.  "The president's been very clear if we can get the right deal, he wants the deal," Mnuchin said.  "If we can't get the right deal, he's happy with the tariffs."  Mnuchin touted how Pres Trump is the first pres to take these issues head-on.  "As you know, the president not only likes tariffs, but he uses them strategically," Mnuchin said.  "And he's right."  A new twist to his comments, which were made at the UN General Assembly, is that the Trump administration had requested that Chinese officials cancel a visit to US farming regions.  A report by state-backed media group Yicai quoted a Beijing senior agricultural representative as saying that China did not cancel the planned visits to the US because of challenges in trade negotiations.  The visits by Chinese officials to farms in Montana & Nebraska were unexpectedly called off, but now, Mnuchin stated the cancellation "was purely at our request.''  After Mnuchin explained the request to reschedule the farm visits, Pres Trump asked Mnuchin "Why was that our request, just out of curiosity?"  Mnuchin assured the pres it was to avoid any confusion around the trade negotiations, but Trump responded to that by saying "Yeah, but I want them to buy farm products."  "There was no confusion," Mnuchin clarified.  "We want them to buy agriculture. They've committed to buy agriculture."  Mnuchin clarified that discussion during the interview.  "The farmers and the fishermen are very important to the president," Mnuchin said.  "And I would say that we take it as a personal offense that they stopped buying agriculture."  However, Mnuchin said the good news is the Chinese have agreed to start buying agriculture again.  China isn't the only Asian country the US is currently negotiating with.  Reportedly, Japan is hoping to sign a trade deal with the US by the end of the month, according to a Japanese foreign ministry spokesperson.

Mnuchin discusses the latest on China trade talks

Pres Trump, during his speech before world leaders today, is expected to touch on the record-long economic expansion underway in the US, even as the global economic outlook continues to darken.  Trump, who is scheduled to deliver his 3rd address before the UN General Assembly today, told reporters that he plans to discuss a series of topics ranging from the US economy to Iran, which he blamed for an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil industry earlier this month.  “We’ll be talking about various things that we’re doing. And we’re having tremendous success. We’re also going to be talking about the economy,” Trump said.  “As you know ... our economy is doing fantastically well.”  “We’ll be talking about various things that we’re doing. And we’re having tremendous success. We’re also going to be talking about the economy,” Trump said. “As you know ... our economy is doing fantastically well.”  Despite some worrisome economic developments, including the inversion of the spread between 2-year & 10-year Treasury yields, 2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve & moderate, but slowing, growth in the US, unemployment remains at 3.7%, near a 5-decade low, & job growth has continued to chug along at a healthy pace.  Plus, although US manufacturing contracted for the first time in 3 years at the beginning of Sep, new data revealed this week the sector rebounded, with activity growth hitting a 5-month high, according to the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.  “Others were down, and we’re up,” Trump said.  “And we continue to go in the right direction. We’re getting numbers that we never anticipated having. And we’re doing very well. Other parts of the world are not doing nearly as well.”  “But there are a lot of things to talk about,” Trump added.  “We have a lot of really great relationships, and we have some relationships that are — let’s call it ‘in formation.’ We’re being nice.”

Trump expected to tout record economic expansion in UN General Assembly speech


US consumer confidence slipped in Sep to 133.5 from 134.2 in Aug, the Conference Board said.  The forecast called for the metric to come in at 133.5.  “Consumer confidence declined in September, following a moderate decrease in August,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.  The Conference Board added that consumers were “less positive in their assessment of current conditions and their expectations regarding the short-term outlook also weakened.”

Consumer confidence falls sharply in September

Not very much significant on the news front.  Trade negotiations with China are moving forward, but very slowly.  The General Motors (GM) stirke is stumbling without meaningful progress.  The Dow is around 27K & traders are are looking for an excuse to take it to a new record. 

Dow Jones Industrials








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