Monday, September 16, 2019

Markets pull back while oil soars

Dow sank 142, advancers ahead of decliners about 5-4 & NAZ shed 23.  The MLP index added 2+ to 241 & the REIT index rose 3+ to 403.  Junk bond funds had modest gains & Treasuries were iin demand once again.  Oil shot up a starling 7+ to the 62s (much more below) & gold went up 10 to 1510.

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The Saudi-led military coalition battling Yemen's Houthi movement said that the attack on Saudi Arabian oil plants was carried out with Iranian weapons & was not launched from Yemen according to preliminary findings.  Coalition spokesman Colonel Turki al-Malki said that an investigation into Sat's strikes, which had been claimed by the Iran-aligned Houthi group, was still going on to determine the launch location.  “The preliminary results show that the weapons are Iranian and we are currently working to determine the location ... The terrorist attack did not originate from Yemen as the Houthi militia claimed,” Malki said.  He added that authorities would reveal the location from where drones were launched at a future press briefing.  Iran has dismissed as “unacceptable” US accusations that Tehran was responsible for the assault on Saudi oil facilities that cut almost ½ of the kingdom's production (5% of global oil supply).  Malki said the Gulf Arab state, the world's top oil exporter, was capable of protecting vital energy and economic sites.  “This cowardly act largely targets the global economy and not Saudi Arabia.”  The Western-backed, Sunni Muslim alliance intervened in Yemen in Mar 2015 to try to restore the internationally recognised gov ousted from power in the capital Sanaa in late 2014 by the Houthis.  The movement has stepped up drone & missile attacks on Saudi cities this year.  The conflict is largely seen in the region as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia & Iran.

Evidence indicates Iranian arms used in Saudi attack, say Saudis

Crude-oil production from 7 major US shale plays is forecast to climb by 74K barrels a day in Oct to 8.843M barrels a day, according the Energy Information Administration released Monday. Oil output from the Permian Basin, which covers parts of western Texas & southeastern New Mexico, is expected to see the bulk of that increase, up 71K barrels a day in Oct from Sep.  Shale oil output from the Anadarko & Eagle Ford regions, however, are expected to see slight monthly declines. Today oil prices rallied in the wake of a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities that led to a significant cut in the kingdom's crude production.

EIA forecasts U.S. shale oil output to edge up by 74,000 barrels a day in October

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, the head of gov in the Canadian province, said the attack on oil fields in Saudi Arablia is a reminder that energy security is vitally important to the economy, & the US is very fortunate to have the 3rd-largest oil reserves just north of its the border.  “We have huge untapped reserves,” he said.  “But unfortunately we've been fighting a campaign funded largely by U.S. interest groups to landlock Alberta energy even while the United States has quite understandably doubled its oil production in the past decade. But we want to get you more of our energy.”  Kenney said it's necessary to get the Keystone XL pipeline built because it would give the US access to nearly 1M barrels per day.  Keystone XL applied for a presidential permit in 2008 but approval of the permit was delayed by environmental assessments & a political battle between the Rep-controlled Congress & the Obama Administration.  Shortly after taking office, Pres Trump signed exec actions to advance the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline & the 4-state Dakota Access oil pipeline.  However, plans to begin construction were blocked last Nov after a federal judge in Montana ordered additional environmental reviews of the project.  In Apr, Trump issued a new permit for the construction of the pipeline.  The company is also facing other hurdles to move oil thru the US.  “We are also facing a bit of a threat from the governor and attorney general of Michigan who are trying to shut down line five that delivers half a million barrels a day to the Great Lakes states that would massively spike energy prices.”  When asked about Dems' push to eliminate fossil fuels, Kenney spoke about the consensus that there will be growing demand for hydrocarbon-based fuels thru 2040The question then is: where should that energy come from," Kenney asked.  “I say it's better that it come from Canada & the US than the OPEC dictatorships & Vladimir Putin's Russia."

Alberta Premier: Keystone XL pipeline will give US access to nearly a million barrels of oil a day

Oil futures tallied, as a weekend attack on Saudi oil  facilities cut the kingdom's daily crude production down by more than ½, sparking concerns of a potentially prolonged supply shortage.  The news sparked talk of $100 oil prices.  Oct West Texas Intermediate oil added $8.05 (14.7%) to settle at $62.90, the highest finish for a front-month contract since May 21.

Oil rallies 15%, with U.S. prices settling at their highest in 4 months


Oil had one spectacular day on the the news about the strike against Saudi Arabia.  In the background, the General Motors (GM) is a domestic worry.  At mid week, the Fed will announce what the FOMC decided about interest rates.  For the moment a rate cut of 25 basis points is widely expected.  The oil market should be the largest influence on the stocks these weeks.  Stocks began the day with a wide loss & remained at the depressed levels all day.  The advance decline ratio finished with modest advantage for the gainers.  Traders are keeping their fingers after Trump said he doesn't want war with Iran, but he is prepared for conflict.

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