Thursday, September 26, 2019

Markets pares losses after China purchases US soybeans and pork

Dow fell 79 (a rebound in the PM was pared by selling into the close), decliners modestly ahead of advancers & NAZ pulled back 46  The MLP index lost 1+ to the 232s & the REIT index jumped up 3+ to the 411s (record territory).  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries were in demand again.  Oil hardly budged in the low 56s & gold was flat at 1513 (more on both below).

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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said China's recent spending spree on soybeans could mean that trade talks are progressing.  “China's coming into the commodity markets, I'm told soybean prices have been bid up a bit,” he said.  “This is a very, very good beginning we haven't seen this kind of thing.”  In recent days, China has been in the commodity markets buying a huge volume of soybeans. As a result, soybean imports in the US have been increased by over 80% from last year, he added.  Additionally, China is also looking to buy large amounts of p'ork to “cover their domestic problems,” he said.  Yesterday, Pres Trump said that China’s ready to make a deal because their economy was weakening.  "They want to make a deal,” Trump said during a press conference at the UN.  “And you know why they want to make a deal? Because they're losing their jobs and because their supply chain is going to hell, and companies are moving out of China, and they're moving to lots of other places including the United States. And that's not good. That's far worse than they thought. And by the way, in the meantime, we're taking in billions and billions of dollars in tariffs. We’re taking in tremendous numbers in tariffs, and we're helping our farmers who got targeted now."  The next round of trade talks between US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & China Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to take place in Oct.

Kudlow: China's spending spree sets the 'mood' for a deal


The Senate voted to pass a temporary funding bill to avoid a gov shutdown at the end of the month.  The chamber approved the legislation by an 82-15 margin.  As the House already passed the measure, the Senate vote sends it to Pres Trump for his signature.  He is expected to sign it into law before the Sep 30 funding deadline.  The continuing resolution funds the gov thru Nov 21, setting up another potential showdown over spending just a week before Thanksgiving.  Lawmakers will need to come to an agreement over department spending levels amid yet another dispute over border security & military funding.  Congress already passed legislation to suspend the federal debt ceiling & set gov spending levels for 2 years.  Lawmakers have to separately pass bills allocating money to specific agencies, a process that has tripped them up.

Senate passes short-term funding bill to dodge government shutdown

China said it has purchased a “considerable” amount of US soybeans & pork ahead of the next round of trade talks in DC.  Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said that the US & China are maintaining “close communication” in preparation for the negotiations next month.  He confirmed China has resumed its purchase of American farm goods & added that the tariffs on those orders will be exempted.  “China’s stance has always been consistent and clear, hoping the U.S. side will meet China half way,” Gao said.  China made up $5.9B in US farm product exports in 2018, according to the US Census.  It's the world's top buyer of soybeans & had purchased roughly 60% of US soybean exports last year.  Tensions between the US & China seem to have eased ahead of the planned trade talks in Oct as Pres Trump granted tariff exemptions to many Chinese products & China has said it will exempt US agricultural products & other 16 types of US goods from additional tariffs.  Trump said yesterday that a US-China trade deal could arrive sooner than expected.  He made the comment hours after the release of a once-secret summary of his telephone conversation with Ukraine's presi amid a Dem impeachment inquiry.

China says it has bought a ‘considerable’ amount of US agriculture products

Gold futures settled higher, a day after a surge by the $ prompted the precious metal to suffer its worst daily decline in nearly 3 weeks.  Gold for Dec edged up $2.90 (0.2%) to settle at $1515 an ounce.  Gold fell $27 (1.8%) yesterday, its biggest one-day decline since Sep 5 after the ICE $ Index posted its biggest one-day rise in around 3 months yesterday, while US stocks & bond yields rose, dulling demand for gold.  A stronger $ can be a negative for currencies priced in the commodity as it makes them more expensive to users of other currencies, though the $ index traded little changed today.  Rising bond yields can also be a negative, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like commodities.  Treasury yields moved lower today.  Analysts said bulls might find encouragement from signs of bargain hunting interest as gold, which has rallied in 2019, but pulled back.

Gold settles higher, a day after biggest one-day loss in almost 3 weeks

US oil prices trimmed their losses & global benchmark prices finished higher, as the Pentagon announced that it would deploy equipment & personnel in support of Saudi Arabia following attacks on its oil facilities earlier this month.  Oil futures had suffered from steeper declines for much of today's session, before the news broke in the minutes before the settlement.  News reports show progress in restoring Saudi output following attacks on its oil facilities earlier this month & US inventories logged back-to-back weekly increases.  The US will deploy one “patriot battery, four sentinel RADARs [and] approximately 200 support personnel” to Saudi Arabia, according to the Dept of Defense.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov delivery edged down 8¢ to settle at $56.41 a barrel after trading as low as $55.41.  Nov Brent crude, the global benchmark, finished 35¢ (0.6%) higher at $62.74 a barrel.  News reports yesterday said Saudi Arabia had restored output capacity to 11.3M barrels a day, more quickly than initially planned, after attacks on facilities earlier this month knocked production of more than 5M barrels a day offline, sparking a sharp rally in crude prices.

U.S. oil trims losses, Brent ends higher as Pentagon announces move to support Saudi Arabia following recent attacks


While impeachment concerns weighed on the markets all day, news about Chinese purchase of agricultural products brought back stock buyers in the PM.  Selling in the last ½ hour was based in on nervousness about the whistleblower.  There is reason for optimism on the trade talks front although a final deal could still be far down the road.  Tomorrow should be an interesting day for traders!

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