Dow sank 183, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ fell 60. The MLP index fell 3+ to the 216s & the REIT index was fractionally lower to the 402s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued weak today. Oil fluctuated in the 61s & gold hardly budged at 1518 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Gold prices clinched a 5-day win streak, its longest in about 6 months, while settling near a 3-month high as investors got ready for the end of 2019 with one day remaining in trade. Bullion's value has been partially supported by apparent progress toward a scaledown of the Sino-American trade war but fears that Pres Trump's administration may scuttle any partial agreement at the last minute have helped to draw bids & limit losses for haven metals. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is set to travel to DC on Sat, where he is expected to sign the limited trade deal agreed to earlier this month with the Trump administration, the South China Morning Post reported. Gold for Feb delivery added 50¢ to settle at $1518 an ounce, after the metal on Fri touched its highest level for the most-active contract since Sep 24 when it closed at $1540. That marked its 5th-straight gain, the longest win streak for gold in about 6 months, dating back to an 8-session win streak ended Jun 7. For the year, gold has gained 18.5%. Gold also was finding some support after the Trump administration warned of potential “additional actions” following US military airstrikes in Iraq & Syria yesterday against an Iran-backed militia group, which was blamed for killing an American civilian contractor on an Iraqi military base.
The economy in the Midwest improved in Dec for the 2nd month in a row, but the region is still suffering from a trade war with China that's hurt farmers & manufacturers, according to a regional survey. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose to 48.9 this month from a revised 46.2 in Nov & 43.2 in Oct. The Oct reading was the weakest since the end of 2015. Although the latest reading was a bit better than expected, the index still shows the economy in the greater Chicago area is contracting. Any reading below 50 indicates deteriorating conditions. New orders & employment fell at an even faster pace compared to the prior month, but those negatives were largely offset by improved but still soft production numbers. Farmers & manufacturers have borne the brunt of the trade war with China, suffering from declining or irregular demand or higher prices for raw materials. The Midwestern economy is especially dependent on agricultural & heavy industry. The much larger service side of the economy, however, has kept the US growing at a steady if unspectacular pace, leavened by strong consumer spending. Consumers are still confident in the economy with unemployment & layoffs at ½-century lows.
As 2019 comes to a close, all eyes are on the White House as Pres Trump's administration attempts to fulfill its promises while the 2020 election & a Senate impeachment trial closes in. Here are the administration's top 2020 goals.
Finalizing USMCA
The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed the House earlier in Dec & will be taken up by the Senate in the New Year. Both Trump & House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have taken credit for the $1.2T trade deal designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he will turn to USMCA after an impeachment trial for Trump. Pelosi has not yet sent the articles of impeachment to the Senate. The Chamber of Commerce & AFL-CIO endorsed USMCA, which the administration expects to create around 176K new jobs & inject $34B into the auto industry.
Taking action on prescription drug pricing and surprise medical billing
Regulating prescription drug pricing could set up yet another Pelosi-Trump showdown, while taking action against surprise medical billing could also pose a challenge even though politicians on both sides of the aisle have spoken out against it. Congress finished 2019 without making real headway on either issue, although the House passed Pelosi's drug pricing bill that includes provisions supported by Reps but also empowers Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. The legislation has no chance of passing the Rep-controlled Senate & the White House has issued a veto threat. Still, Dem saw a victory in the message their bill sends to voters. Trump has been a vocal critic of surprise medical billing for insured patients & his administration passed a rule forcing hospital groups to disclose the discounted prices they offer to individual insurers. The administration contends that requiring hospitals to release the negotiated price is intrinsic to lowering health care costs amid a surge of surprise medical bills for patients who are often unaware of total costs until they receive the bill. Reps & Dems seemed poised to address the issue in an end-of-year spending bill, but they never took the leap.
Regular order spending bills
It was a much less nerve-racking path to funding the gov in 2019 compared to the prior year. The gov shut down for 35 days into early 2019, costing the economy & federal workers. Still, the 2 major spending packages the Senate approved the day before a Dec 20 deadline represent a break from regular order — a break that has been the norm since long before Trump took office.
Confirming more judges
Over the course of his administration, Trump has seen 187 federal judge confirmations, including 50 to circuit courts of appeal & 2 Supreme Court justices. Trump's administration has worked in tandem with McConnell, who plans to keep things moving in 2020.
Prioritizing paid family leave
In addition, Trump's's daughter & adviser Ivanka Trump has been an advocate for a nationwide paid family leave policy & said yesterday the administration would even support Dem-led legislation. Ivanka Trump has focused on issues like job training & paid family leave for American workers during her time in DC. Regarding paid leave, Ivanka gathered governors, business leaders & administration officials in for a White House summit earlier this month to push for action on the issue.
Oil futures ended with small losses, snapping a 4-day winning streak in quiet trading in the next-to-last trading session of the year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Feb delivery fell 4¢ to end at $61.68 a barrel. Mar Brent crude, the most-active contract, fell 20¢ (0.3%) to close at $66.87 a barrel. Mon marked the expiration day of the Feb Brent contract, which was up 31¢ (0.5%) at $68.47 a barrel. Both grades traded at their highest levels for most-active futures contracts since mid-Sep, when a drone attack on Saudi oil facilities caused crude prices to spike. WTI crude, the US benchmark, & Brent, the global benchmark, are up around 11.8% & 10.4% this month, respectively. That puts WTI on track for a 36% gain so far this year, while Brent is up around 24%. Gains in Dec came after the US & China announced an agreement on a “phase one” trade deal that helped soothe worries over the global economic outlook & was credited with sparking a rally in equities & other assets perceived as risky. OPEC & its allies earlier this month agreed to cut output by 500K barrels a day on top of its current reduction agreement, beginning in Jan. Analysts said investors are also keeping an eye on developments in Iraq after news reports said protesters on Sat forced the temporary closure of the country's Nasiriyah oil field. Also, US military forces conducted “precision defensive strikes” against 5 sites controlled by Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, a Defense Dept spokesman said. The US has blamed the militia for a rocket barrage on Fri that killed a US defense contractor at a military compound near Kirkuk, in northern Iraq.
The Dow began the day with heavy selling & remained deeply in the red for the rest of the session. Volume was low. Markets remain close to record highs & with an expected signing of phase one on the China trade deal later this week, the bulls are still in charge of the 2019 rally.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Gold prices clinched a 5-day win streak, its longest in about 6 months, while settling near a 3-month high as investors got ready for the end of 2019 with one day remaining in trade. Bullion's value has been partially supported by apparent progress toward a scaledown of the Sino-American trade war but fears that Pres Trump's administration may scuttle any partial agreement at the last minute have helped to draw bids & limit losses for haven metals. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is set to travel to DC on Sat, where he is expected to sign the limited trade deal agreed to earlier this month with the Trump administration, the South China Morning Post reported. Gold for Feb delivery added 50¢ to settle at $1518 an ounce, after the metal on Fri touched its highest level for the most-active contract since Sep 24 when it closed at $1540. That marked its 5th-straight gain, the longest win streak for gold in about 6 months, dating back to an 8-session win streak ended Jun 7. For the year, gold has gained 18.5%. Gold also was finding some support after the Trump administration warned of potential “additional actions” following US military airstrikes in Iraq & Syria yesterday against an Iran-backed militia group, which was blamed for killing an American civilian contractor on an Iraqi military base.
Gold closes near 3-month high, clinches longest win streak in about 6 months
The economy in the Midwest improved in Dec for the 2nd month in a row, but the region is still suffering from a trade war with China that's hurt farmers & manufacturers, according to a regional survey. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose to 48.9 this month from a revised 46.2 in Nov & 43.2 in Oct. The Oct reading was the weakest since the end of 2015. Although the latest reading was a bit better than expected, the index still shows the economy in the greater Chicago area is contracting. Any reading below 50 indicates deteriorating conditions. New orders & employment fell at an even faster pace compared to the prior month, but those negatives were largely offset by improved but still soft production numbers. Farmers & manufacturers have borne the brunt of the trade war with China, suffering from declining or irregular demand or higher prices for raw materials. The Midwestern economy is especially dependent on agricultural & heavy industry. The much larger service side of the economy, however, has kept the US growing at a steady if unspectacular pace, leavened by strong consumer spending. Consumers are still confident in the economy with unemployment & layoffs at ½-century lows.
Chicago-region businesses improve in December, but they’re still struggling to grow
As 2019 comes to a close, all eyes are on the White House as Pres Trump's administration attempts to fulfill its promises while the 2020 election & a Senate impeachment trial closes in. Here are the administration's top 2020 goals.
Finalizing USMCA
The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed the House earlier in Dec & will be taken up by the Senate in the New Year. Both Trump & House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have taken credit for the $1.2T trade deal designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he will turn to USMCA after an impeachment trial for Trump. Pelosi has not yet sent the articles of impeachment to the Senate. The Chamber of Commerce & AFL-CIO endorsed USMCA, which the administration expects to create around 176K new jobs & inject $34B into the auto industry.
Taking action on prescription drug pricing and surprise medical billing
Regulating prescription drug pricing could set up yet another Pelosi-Trump showdown, while taking action against surprise medical billing could also pose a challenge even though politicians on both sides of the aisle have spoken out against it. Congress finished 2019 without making real headway on either issue, although the House passed Pelosi's drug pricing bill that includes provisions supported by Reps but also empowers Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. The legislation has no chance of passing the Rep-controlled Senate & the White House has issued a veto threat. Still, Dem saw a victory in the message their bill sends to voters. Trump has been a vocal critic of surprise medical billing for insured patients & his administration passed a rule forcing hospital groups to disclose the discounted prices they offer to individual insurers. The administration contends that requiring hospitals to release the negotiated price is intrinsic to lowering health care costs amid a surge of surprise medical bills for patients who are often unaware of total costs until they receive the bill. Reps & Dems seemed poised to address the issue in an end-of-year spending bill, but they never took the leap.
Regular order spending bills
It was a much less nerve-racking path to funding the gov in 2019 compared to the prior year. The gov shut down for 35 days into early 2019, costing the economy & federal workers. Still, the 2 major spending packages the Senate approved the day before a Dec 20 deadline represent a break from regular order — a break that has been the norm since long before Trump took office.
Confirming more judges
Over the course of his administration, Trump has seen 187 federal judge confirmations, including 50 to circuit courts of appeal & 2 Supreme Court justices. Trump's administration has worked in tandem with McConnell, who plans to keep things moving in 2020.
Prioritizing paid family leave
In addition, Trump's's daughter & adviser Ivanka Trump has been an advocate for a nationwide paid family leave policy & said yesterday the administration would even support Dem-led legislation. Ivanka Trump has focused on issues like job training & paid family leave for American workers during her time in DC. Regarding paid leave, Ivanka gathered governors, business leaders & administration officials in for a White House summit earlier this month to push for action on the issue.
TRUMP'S TO-DO LIST: 5 of the White House's top goals for 2020
Oil futures ended with small losses, snapping a 4-day winning streak in quiet trading in the next-to-last trading session of the year. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Feb delivery fell 4¢ to end at $61.68 a barrel. Mar Brent crude, the most-active contract, fell 20¢ (0.3%) to close at $66.87 a barrel. Mon marked the expiration day of the Feb Brent contract, which was up 31¢ (0.5%) at $68.47 a barrel. Both grades traded at their highest levels for most-active futures contracts since mid-Sep, when a drone attack on Saudi oil facilities caused crude prices to spike. WTI crude, the US benchmark, & Brent, the global benchmark, are up around 11.8% & 10.4% this month, respectively. That puts WTI on track for a 36% gain so far this year, while Brent is up around 24%. Gains in Dec came after the US & China announced an agreement on a “phase one” trade deal that helped soothe worries over the global economic outlook & was credited with sparking a rally in equities & other assets perceived as risky. OPEC & its allies earlier this month agreed to cut output by 500K barrels a day on top of its current reduction agreement, beginning in Jan. Analysts said investors are also keeping an eye on developments in Iraq after news reports said protesters on Sat forced the temporary closure of the country's Nasiriyah oil field. Also, US military forces conducted “precision defensive strikes” against 5 sites controlled by Kataeb Hezbollah, or Hezbollah Brigades, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, a Defense Dept spokesman said. The US has blamed the militia for a rocket barrage on Fri that killed a US defense contractor at a military compound near Kirkuk, in northern Iraq.
Oil ends slightly lower, snapping 4-day winning streak
The Dow began the day with heavy selling & remained deeply in the red for the rest of the session. Volume was low. Markets remain close to record highs & with an expected signing of phase one on the China trade deal later this week, the bulls are still in charge of the 2019 rally.
Dow Jones Industrials
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