Dow was off 27, advancers & decliners were even & NAZ lost 5. The MLP index gained 5 to the 209s & the REIT index pulled back 2+ to the 402s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were off a tad. Oil crawled higher & gold rose 4 to 1468 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
US Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is "very important for American jobs, American economic growth and American stability in the region." "I'm very, very pleased with the hard work that we got from [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer, and the [House] Speaker [Nancy Pelosi], and the folks up on the Hill," Donohue added. "And we look forward to a vote next week, and then getting on to the Senate." Donohue called the historic trade deal by the US, Mexico & Canada, "an important agreement for America." He also noted the significance of this deal with regard to the ongoing China trade negotiations. The deal must now be ratified by all 3 countries. A House vote, delayed as Dems fought to improve enforcement mechanisms after winning a majority in the chamber in Nov 2018, is slated for next week. The modifications had delayed congressional approval, raising the possibility that the deal might not be ratified this year since Congress adjourns Dec 20 for its holiday break & prompted criticism from Pres Trump & fellow Reps. The USMCA deal was announced on the same day the House Dems introduced 2 articles of impeachment against Pres Trump, touching off a rapid-fire sequence that could result in a momentous floor vote in a matter of days. Donohue didn't consider the timing to be purposeful, calling it a "coincidence." He said since the House hasn't "had very much to publically vote on ... this is something that is clearly going to carry our economy forward." "I think that the speaker has been very clear on this – the folks in the Republican Party in the House understand how important this is to them," Donohue said. USMCA "will be the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA," Pres Trump tweeted. VP Mike Pence said the Dems' move is a victory for Trump's policy and shows Pelosi & her caucus acquiescing "to the voice of the American people."
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow downplayed reports of a tariff delay, noting the Trump administration could still move forward with new levies targeting Chinese goods. “The reality is those tariffs are still on the table, the Dec. 15 tariffs, and the president has indicated if the short strokes remaining in negotiations do not pan out to his liking that those tariffs could go back into place,” Kudlow said at a conference. “So, they could not, but they also could. There is no definitive decision on that yet,” Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, added. Kudlow's comments came after a reported that the US was contemplating pushing back additional tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect on Sun. A report also said China expected the US to hold off on those extra levies. Pres Trump said in Oct that the 2 sides would sign a phase one deal before year-end. That lifted investor sentiment & sent stocks rallying to record highs. Today, however, the major indices struggled for direction as investors awaited clarity on the US-China trade front.
Larry Kudlow says Dec. 15 tariffs are ‘still on the table’ after reports of possible delay
US crude oil production is expected to rise by 1.26M barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 to an average of 12.25M bpd, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, slightly below its previous forecast for a rise of 1.3M bpd. The output in 2020 is forecast to rise by 930K bpd to 13.18M bpd, according to the EIA.
Oil futures climbed, recovering from early losses, after a report was seen as upbeat in long-running negotiations between the US & China on tariffs. Prices also got a boost from expectations that a US gov report tomorrow will reveal a 2nd-straight weekly decline in domestic crude inventories. A report today, citing unnamed officials from both parties, reported that US & Chinese negotiators were laying the groundwork for a delay in a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in Sun. The report indicated that the parties continue to “haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of U.S. farm products President Trump is insisting on for a near-term deal.” Trade animosities between the largest economies has been a headwind for crude oil demand & global economic growth in the past year. West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan delivery tacked on 14¢ at $59.16 a barrel, after sliding 0.3% yesterday. Feb Brent crude added a penny to $64.26 a barrel after skidding 0.2% a day ago.
Oil climbs on report of upbeat China trade talks, forecasts for a weekly decline in U.S. supplies
Gold prices settled higher, with futures finding support in the wake of losses after the past 2 sessions, as traders eyed potential progress toward a US-China trade deal & awaited the outcome of the 2-day Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Lingering uncertainty about a partial resolution in trade tensions between the US & China has been a main driver for precious metals, but the White House's suggestions that a deal was close has provided some headwinds for bullion in recent action. Still, gold bulls make the case that signs that US inflation may be edging up & demand for the hard commodity in Asia have underpinned prices. Feb gold picked up $3.20 (0.2%) to settle at $1468 an ounce, following losses in the past 2 sessions. The narrative on trade on today was mixed, with Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney saying that prospects for “phase one” of a broader trade compromise with China were “pretty good” during an event in DC, while Larry Kudlow, moments later at the same event said the Dec 15 tariffs were “still on the table.” Meanwhile, it was reported that Congress is working toward a bill that would bar the use of federal funds to buy Chinese buses & railcars, which could complicate a phase-one trade-deal talks.
Gold prices end higher as focus turns to Fed policy announcement, China trade deal
As usual US-China negotiations are clear as mud. Safe haven gold has been drifting lower in the last 3 months while the Dow has been rising to record highs. The USMCA deal did not excite investors. Given the goings on in DC, a final signed agreement will not happen until next week (hopefully). And the China deal remains in limbo. The FOMC announcement tomorrow will get attention, although traders are widely expecting that rates will be left alone. The bulls are happy to see the Dow close near its record highs.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
US Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue said the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is "very important for American jobs, American economic growth and American stability in the region." "I'm very, very pleased with the hard work that we got from [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer, and the [House] Speaker [Nancy Pelosi], and the folks up on the Hill," Donohue added. "And we look forward to a vote next week, and then getting on to the Senate." Donohue called the historic trade deal by the US, Mexico & Canada, "an important agreement for America." He also noted the significance of this deal with regard to the ongoing China trade negotiations. The deal must now be ratified by all 3 countries. A House vote, delayed as Dems fought to improve enforcement mechanisms after winning a majority in the chamber in Nov 2018, is slated for next week. The modifications had delayed congressional approval, raising the possibility that the deal might not be ratified this year since Congress adjourns Dec 20 for its holiday break & prompted criticism from Pres Trump & fellow Reps. The USMCA deal was announced on the same day the House Dems introduced 2 articles of impeachment against Pres Trump, touching off a rapid-fire sequence that could result in a momentous floor vote in a matter of days. Donohue didn't consider the timing to be purposeful, calling it a "coincidence." He said since the House hasn't "had very much to publically vote on ... this is something that is clearly going to carry our economy forward." "I think that the speaker has been very clear on this – the folks in the Republican Party in the House understand how important this is to them," Donohue said. USMCA "will be the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA," Pres Trump tweeted. VP Mike Pence said the Dems' move is a victory for Trump's policy and shows Pelosi & her caucus acquiescing "to the voice of the American people."
Chamber of Commerce CEO praises USMCA, says impact on US will be huge
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow downplayed reports of a tariff delay, noting the Trump administration could still move forward with new levies targeting Chinese goods. “The reality is those tariffs are still on the table, the Dec. 15 tariffs, and the president has indicated if the short strokes remaining in negotiations do not pan out to his liking that those tariffs could go back into place,” Kudlow said at a conference. “So, they could not, but they also could. There is no definitive decision on that yet,” Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, added. Kudlow's comments came after a reported that the US was contemplating pushing back additional tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect on Sun. A report also said China expected the US to hold off on those extra levies. Pres Trump said in Oct that the 2 sides would sign a phase one deal before year-end. That lifted investor sentiment & sent stocks rallying to record highs. Today, however, the major indices struggled for direction as investors awaited clarity on the US-China trade front.
Larry Kudlow says Dec. 15 tariffs are ‘still on the table’ after reports of possible delay
US crude oil production is expected to rise by 1.26M barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 to an average of 12.25M bpd, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, slightly below its previous forecast for a rise of 1.3M bpd. The output in 2020 is forecast to rise by 930K bpd to 13.18M bpd, according to the EIA.
US crude oil 2019 output expected to rise less than predicted
Oil futures climbed, recovering from early losses, after a report was seen as upbeat in long-running negotiations between the US & China on tariffs. Prices also got a boost from expectations that a US gov report tomorrow will reveal a 2nd-straight weekly decline in domestic crude inventories. A report today, citing unnamed officials from both parties, reported that US & Chinese negotiators were laying the groundwork for a delay in a fresh round of tariffs set to kick in Sun. The report indicated that the parties continue to “haggle over how to get Beijing to commit to massive purchases of U.S. farm products President Trump is insisting on for a near-term deal.” Trade animosities between the largest economies has been a headwind for crude oil demand & global economic growth in the past year. West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan delivery tacked on 14¢ at $59.16 a barrel, after sliding 0.3% yesterday. Feb Brent crude added a penny to $64.26 a barrel after skidding 0.2% a day ago.
Oil climbs on report of upbeat China trade talks, forecasts for a weekly decline in U.S. supplies
Gold prices settled higher, with futures finding support in the wake of losses after the past 2 sessions, as traders eyed potential progress toward a US-China trade deal & awaited the outcome of the 2-day Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Lingering uncertainty about a partial resolution in trade tensions between the US & China has been a main driver for precious metals, but the White House's suggestions that a deal was close has provided some headwinds for bullion in recent action. Still, gold bulls make the case that signs that US inflation may be edging up & demand for the hard commodity in Asia have underpinned prices. Feb gold picked up $3.20 (0.2%) to settle at $1468 an ounce, following losses in the past 2 sessions. The narrative on trade on today was mixed, with Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney saying that prospects for “phase one” of a broader trade compromise with China were “pretty good” during an event in DC, while Larry Kudlow, moments later at the same event said the Dec 15 tariffs were “still on the table.” Meanwhile, it was reported that Congress is working toward a bill that would bar the use of federal funds to buy Chinese buses & railcars, which could complicate a phase-one trade-deal talks.
Gold prices end higher as focus turns to Fed policy announcement, China trade deal
As usual US-China negotiations are clear as mud. Safe haven gold has been drifting lower in the last 3 months while the Dow has been rising to record highs. The USMCA deal did not excite investors. Given the goings on in DC, a final signed agreement will not happen until next week (hopefully). And the China deal remains in limbo. The FOMC announcement tomorrow will get attention, although traders are widely expecting that rates will be left alone. The bulls are happy to see the Dow close near its record highs.
Dow Jones Industrials
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