Dow fell 39, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ was off 1. The MLP index added 1 to the 217s & the REIT index fluctuated in the 403s. Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries continued to be sold. Oil slid back in the 61s & gold went up 6 to 1523 in what should be its strongest year since 2010.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The phase one trade deal between the US & China will be official next month. “I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15,” Pres Trump tweeted, adding that the ceremony will "take place at the White House" with high-level representatives from China. US equity markets won back their early losses in response to the Trump's tweet. The partial trade deal, which was agreed to on Dec 12, calls for Beijing to purchase $200B worth of US products over the next 2 years, in addition to protecting against intellectual property theft & technology transfer. In return, the US has agreed to reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods, but will still levy duties against $380B of those products. The pres's tweet comes a day after Peter Navarro, White House assistant for trade & manufacturing policy, said that a signing could happen within the week as the 2 sides were just waiting on the translation of the agreement. Earlier yesterday, the South China Morning Post reported Liu He, China's top trade negotiator, would head to DC on Sat to sign off on the deal. Trump has said a comprehensive trade pact could occur over 2 or 3 phases.
Factory activity held steady in Dec in the latest sign that China/s economy may be recovering from a protracted slowdown. An official survey of manufacturers showed factory activity held steady in Dec, with the official purchasing managers index at 50.2 on a scale where 50 marks the break between expansion & contraction. Dec's reading matched Nov's, which ended 6 previous months of contraction. The National Statistics Bureau said that new orders were at 51.2, down slightly from the month before. Out of 21 industries surveyed, 15 showed activity picking up, including food & beverages, textiles & apparel making, auto manufacturing, medical-related production & appliances. China's economy has been slowing due to both domestic & global factors, including a trade war with the US. The partial trade deal between the US & China could be signed within the week, according to Peter Navarro. "We'll probably have a signing on that within the next week or so," he said. "We're just waiting for the translation." Navarro's comments come after the South China Morning Post reported yesterday, citing a source briefed on the matter, that Liu He, China's chief trade negotiator, is leading a delegation to the US on Sat with the directive to sign the phase 1 trade agreement.
US consumer confidence dipped slightly in Dec, according to data from the Conference Board. The metric came in at 126.5 for the month, down from 126.8 in Nov. The forecast called for a reading of 128.2 for Dec. The dip in Dec comes after the metric fell for the 4th straight in Nov. “Confidence declined marginally in December, following a slight improvement in November,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
US consumer confidence dips in December
Not much for the markets to do while traders wait for the first phase on the US-China trade deal to be signed. The Dow is presently up more than 5K YTD (but starting from a depressed base). That will be difficult to replicate for years (& decades). Meanwhile, safe have gold is having its best year in a decade. It's rare to see both of those investments advancing at the same time. But stock investors are not complaining.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 60.80 | -0.88 | -1.4% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,522.30 | +3.70 | +0.2% |
The phase one trade deal between the US & China will be official next month. “I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15,” Pres Trump tweeted, adding that the ceremony will "take place at the White House" with high-level representatives from China. US equity markets won back their early losses in response to the Trump's tweet. The partial trade deal, which was agreed to on Dec 12, calls for Beijing to purchase $200B worth of US products over the next 2 years, in addition to protecting against intellectual property theft & technology transfer. In return, the US has agreed to reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods, but will still levy duties against $380B of those products. The pres's tweet comes a day after Peter Navarro, White House assistant for trade & manufacturing policy, said that a signing could happen within the week as the 2 sides were just waiting on the translation of the agreement. Earlier yesterday, the South China Morning Post reported Liu He, China's top trade negotiator, would head to DC on Sat to sign off on the deal. Trump has said a comprehensive trade pact could occur over 2 or 3 phases.
Trump announces when and where he'll sign 'phase one' China trade deal
Factory activity held steady in Dec in the latest sign that China/s economy may be recovering from a protracted slowdown. An official survey of manufacturers showed factory activity held steady in Dec, with the official purchasing managers index at 50.2 on a scale where 50 marks the break between expansion & contraction. Dec's reading matched Nov's, which ended 6 previous months of contraction. The National Statistics Bureau said that new orders were at 51.2, down slightly from the month before. Out of 21 industries surveyed, 15 showed activity picking up, including food & beverages, textiles & apparel making, auto manufacturing, medical-related production & appliances. China's economy has been slowing due to both domestic & global factors, including a trade war with the US. The partial trade deal between the US & China could be signed within the week, according to Peter Navarro. "We'll probably have a signing on that within the next week or so," he said. "We're just waiting for the translation." Navarro's comments come after the South China Morning Post reported yesterday, citing a source briefed on the matter, that Liu He, China's chief trade negotiator, is leading a delegation to the US on Sat with the directive to sign the phase 1 trade agreement.
China manufacturing holds steady in December
US consumer confidence dipped slightly in Dec, according to data from the Conference Board. The metric came in at 126.5 for the month, down from 126.8 in Nov. The forecast called for a reading of 128.2 for Dec. The dip in Dec comes after the metric fell for the 4th straight in Nov. “Confidence declined marginally in December, following a slight improvement in November,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
US consumer confidence dips in December
Not much for the markets to do while traders wait for the first phase on the US-China trade deal to be signed. The Dow is presently up more than 5K YTD (but starting from a depressed base). That will be difficult to replicate for years (& decades). Meanwhile, safe have gold is having its best year in a decade. It's rare to see both of those investments advancing at the same time. But stock investors are not complaining.
Dow Jones Industrials
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