Dow fell 27 (missing out on another record close), advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ lost 4 (also missing out on a record). The MLP index advanced 2+ to the 218s & the REIT index jumped up 5 to the 396s after recent weakness. Junk bond funds rose in price & Treasuries were sold today. Oil was flattish near 61 & gold remained close to 1479.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The American consumer is growing more confident while the rest of the world frets about its finances, according to a new survey. The Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.1 point in Dec to 48.5, its lowest level in over 2 years. The drop extended the index's 3-month decline to 1 point, driven by a significant fall in 11 of 24 markets. The US was one of only 2 countries, Hungary being the other, to record a significant increase over that time. The data was collected Nov 22-Dec 6, meaning the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement & the phase one trade deal with China had not yet been reached. “American consumer confidence is pretty strong and at very high levels,” Clifford Young, pres of public affairs at Ipsos, said, adding that the US reading is at its highest level since the global financial crisis. “The fundamentals are just solid here,” he said. "You look around and things are going well.” The US index has climbed by 1.6 points over the past 3 months to 61.9, bolstered by strength in all 4 components (current situation, expectations, investment & jobs), but specifically the jobs index, which is up 3.1 points in that time. The US economy added 266K jobs in Nov as the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, matching a 50-year low. That followed the addition of 193K & 156K positions in the prior 2 months. The US index hit a lull in the middle of 2019 after the yield curve -- a gauge of bond-market confidence -- inverted, igniting fears that a recession was just around the corner. But the economy rebounded after a soft patch, growing at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q3, according to a revised estimate from the Commerce Dept. Confidence in the US remains strong, while it is waning in most other places in the world. Mainland China (-2.4), Spain (-1.8) & France (-1.7) were among the countries that saw notable declines. “It's as if we've exported uncertainty, but we're insulated against uncertainty,” Young said.
Construction execs see demand picking up across most markets next year & are looking to add to their teams. However, not many firms are optimistic they will be able to find qualified talent. According to a new report from the Associated General Contractors of America & Sage Construction & Real Estate, which surveyed nearly 1K contractors, ¾ of firms plan to increase headcount in 2020. More than 50% expect to expand by 10% or less, while 19% expect to increase headcount by as much as 25% – & 5% want to expand by more than 25%. Yet, 81% of respondents said they are having a hard time filling salaried & hourly craft positions, up 3 percentage points from the same time last year. More than 65% expect it will be equally as hard, or potentially even more difficult, to find workers in 2020. “Contractors are very optimistic about demand for construction in 2020,” Stephen E. Sandherr, the association's CEO, said. “At the same time, many construction executives are troubled by labor shortages and the impacts those shortages are having on operations, training and safety programs, and bottom lines.” The problem, however, for some may not be a lack of available candidates but a lack of qualified candidates. 75% of respondents said their biggest concern for the coming year was worker quality, followed by the worker shortage. As a result of the labor shortages, firms are factoring higher prices into contract bids, while projects are taking longer to complete. The good news for workers is that firms are still hoping to attract qualified candidates by increasing pay & benefits. More than ½ of respondents said they increased base pay rates more in 2019 when compared with 2018. Officials from the companies involved in conducting the survey said the gov should enact commonsense immigration reform in order to allow more people to lawfully enter the country to address workforce shortages. The market segments where the highest percentage of respondents expected an increase in the $ volume of projects were water & sewage construction, bridge & highway, K-12 school, hospital construction & transportation.
Ahead of a historic House vote that’s expected to impeach Pres Trump a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds the nation evenly divided on the question, but about 1 in 5 Americans are either open to changing their mind or are unsure. The poll of 800 Americans nationwide found that 45% disapprove of Congress impeaching Trump & 44% approve, little changed from Sep. Of those who have an opinion, 10% say they are open to changing their minds & 11% are unsure. The poll, conducted Dec 10-13, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll shows a massive partisan split, with 78% of Dems support for impeachment & 83% Repn opposition. Independents disapprove of impeachment by 46% to 41%. Trump's economic approval numbers surged back to their highest levels in a year. The new numbers reverse a sharp decline from Sep's poll, which coincided with the House’s decision to launch impeachment proceedings. Trump's overall approval numbers also rebounded but remain deeply negative. The positive change in both approval ratings suggests the initial announcement of impeachment had a sharply negative effect on Americans' attitudes about the pres, but numbers have now rebounded much closer to the average levels for the Trump presidency. The survey shows 49% approving of the pres's handling of the economy, up from 42% in Sep. Disapproval on the economy dropped to 40% from 50%. As a result, Trump's net economic approval rating swung from minus 8% in Sep (the first negative of his presidency) to plus 9%, a massive 17-point move for the series. His overall approval rating also improved, but not nearly as much as on the economy. The survey finds 49% of Americans disapproving of the job Trump is doing & 40% approving. The minus 9% net approval number, however, is a strong improvement from minus 16% in the Sep survey.
Trump’s economic approval hits highest level in a year as Americans remain split on impeachment
The Federal Reserve will have to see a substantial change in economic conditions before making any shifts in its monetary policy, NY Fed Pres John Williams said. “Monetary policy is in a good place,” Williams added. “But, as we’ve proven in the past, if economic conditions shift, change in a material way … obviously we’re ready to adjust our policy views accordingly.” The Fed cut rates 3 times this year in a near-complete reversal of its 2018 policy moves. Last year, the central bank hiked rates 4 times. The last rate hike of 2018 added fuel to a massive year-end sell-off in the stock market. “With the rate cuts that we did this year, we created a situation where monetary policy is supportive and accommodating growth,” Williams said. “That’s a good position given what’s going on in the economy.” At its most recent meeting, the Fed last week set a high bar for further rate cuts & an even higher one to kick off another tightening cycle. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting that he wants to see persistently higher inflation before hiking rates again. US inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed's 2% goal. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank's preferred inflation measure, rose just 1.6% in Oct on a year-over-year basis.
NY Fed’s Williams says it would take a ‘material’ change in economy for Fed to adjust stance
The “phase one” trade deal between the US & China, supposedly a game changer for the global economy going by the stock market's rise to a record after the announcement, has left many analysts & investors puzzled about what was specifically agreed to by both sides. Skepticism is brewing in the markets as much of the details have not been confirmed by both sides. China, in particular, has been reluctant to commit to the amount of agriculture products it’s willing to buy, while big numbers are floating from DC. Beijing has also been quiet about tariffs on US goods as well as an enforcement mechanism. Chinese officials were light on the deal content when unveiling the text of the agreement. In a news conference Fri, they said Beijing will increase agricultural purchases “significantly” without specifying by how much. Meanwhile, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said China pledged to buy a total of $40B in farm goods over a 2-year period. Pres Trump touted “massive” buying – $50B — from China will start “pretty soon.” In a regular news briefing today, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang repeatedly dodged questions on the terms of the phase one trade deal, according to a transcript on its website. China's Ministry of Commerce also published its economic priorities for 2020, which only mentioned the trade conflict with the US in passing. Again, it contained no deal details. In an outline of its “six priorities, plus one” for next year, China listed “properly dealing with China-US trade disputes” without elaborating further. The 2 sides are in the process of simply translating the text of the deal, Lighthizer maintains, adding they are aiming to sign the accord in early Jan. Chinese officials said the final step is to complete the legal & translation work before signing. The US offered a 2-page fact sheet on Fri, stating the deal addresses “intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange” & “includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” Trump also said the US would begin negotiations on the next phase of the trade deal “immediately,” rather than waiting until after the 2020 election. China has not commented on the status of a phase 2 agreement.
Uncertainty remains on Wall Street about China-US phase one agreement: ‘More
Stocks tried to make today the 6th straight day of gains but they couldn't quite make it. In general, macro economic data & attitudes on stocks are good, although buying enthusiasm has slowed in the last week. The market is overbought & some traders may have started their holidays early. But the biggest culprit is the article above. There is a lot of optimism about a China trade deal & nobody is quite sure where it stands. That makes investors nervous about buying.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The American consumer is growing more confident while the rest of the world frets about its finances, according to a new survey. The Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index slipped 0.1 point in Dec to 48.5, its lowest level in over 2 years. The drop extended the index's 3-month decline to 1 point, driven by a significant fall in 11 of 24 markets. The US was one of only 2 countries, Hungary being the other, to record a significant increase over that time. The data was collected Nov 22-Dec 6, meaning the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement & the phase one trade deal with China had not yet been reached. “American consumer confidence is pretty strong and at very high levels,” Clifford Young, pres of public affairs at Ipsos, said, adding that the US reading is at its highest level since the global financial crisis. “The fundamentals are just solid here,” he said. "You look around and things are going well.” The US index has climbed by 1.6 points over the past 3 months to 61.9, bolstered by strength in all 4 components (current situation, expectations, investment & jobs), but specifically the jobs index, which is up 3.1 points in that time. The US economy added 266K jobs in Nov as the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, matching a 50-year low. That followed the addition of 193K & 156K positions in the prior 2 months. The US index hit a lull in the middle of 2019 after the yield curve -- a gauge of bond-market confidence -- inverted, igniting fears that a recession was just around the corner. But the economy rebounded after a soft patch, growing at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q3, according to a revised estimate from the Commerce Dept. Confidence in the US remains strong, while it is waning in most other places in the world. Mainland China (-2.4), Spain (-1.8) & France (-1.7) were among the countries that saw notable declines. “It's as if we've exported uncertainty, but we're insulated against uncertainty,” Young said.
Trump's economy has US consumers brimming with cheer amid global gloom
Construction execs see demand picking up across most markets next year & are looking to add to their teams. However, not many firms are optimistic they will be able to find qualified talent. According to a new report from the Associated General Contractors of America & Sage Construction & Real Estate, which surveyed nearly 1K contractors, ¾ of firms plan to increase headcount in 2020. More than 50% expect to expand by 10% or less, while 19% expect to increase headcount by as much as 25% – & 5% want to expand by more than 25%. Yet, 81% of respondents said they are having a hard time filling salaried & hourly craft positions, up 3 percentage points from the same time last year. More than 65% expect it will be equally as hard, or potentially even more difficult, to find workers in 2020. “Contractors are very optimistic about demand for construction in 2020,” Stephen E. Sandherr, the association's CEO, said. “At the same time, many construction executives are troubled by labor shortages and the impacts those shortages are having on operations, training and safety programs, and bottom lines.” The problem, however, for some may not be a lack of available candidates but a lack of qualified candidates. 75% of respondents said their biggest concern for the coming year was worker quality, followed by the worker shortage. As a result of the labor shortages, firms are factoring higher prices into contract bids, while projects are taking longer to complete. The good news for workers is that firms are still hoping to attract qualified candidates by increasing pay & benefits. More than ½ of respondents said they increased base pay rates more in 2019 when compared with 2018. Officials from the companies involved in conducting the survey said the gov should enact commonsense immigration reform in order to allow more people to lawfully enter the country to address workforce shortages. The market segments where the highest percentage of respondents expected an increase in the $ volume of projects were water & sewage construction, bridge & highway, K-12 school, hospital construction & transportation.
Construction execs optimistic about finding work, but not workers
Ahead of a historic House vote that’s expected to impeach Pres Trump a new CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds the nation evenly divided on the question, but about 1 in 5 Americans are either open to changing their mind or are unsure. The poll of 800 Americans nationwide found that 45% disapprove of Congress impeaching Trump & 44% approve, little changed from Sep. Of those who have an opinion, 10% say they are open to changing their minds & 11% are unsure. The poll, conducted Dec 10-13, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll shows a massive partisan split, with 78% of Dems support for impeachment & 83% Repn opposition. Independents disapprove of impeachment by 46% to 41%. Trump's economic approval numbers surged back to their highest levels in a year. The new numbers reverse a sharp decline from Sep's poll, which coincided with the House’s decision to launch impeachment proceedings. Trump's overall approval numbers also rebounded but remain deeply negative. The positive change in both approval ratings suggests the initial announcement of impeachment had a sharply negative effect on Americans' attitudes about the pres, but numbers have now rebounded much closer to the average levels for the Trump presidency. The survey shows 49% approving of the pres's handling of the economy, up from 42% in Sep. Disapproval on the economy dropped to 40% from 50%. As a result, Trump's net economic approval rating swung from minus 8% in Sep (the first negative of his presidency) to plus 9%, a massive 17-point move for the series. His overall approval rating also improved, but not nearly as much as on the economy. The survey finds 49% of Americans disapproving of the job Trump is doing & 40% approving. The minus 9% net approval number, however, is a strong improvement from minus 16% in the Sep survey.
Trump’s economic approval hits highest level in a year as Americans remain split on impeachment
The Federal Reserve will have to see a substantial change in economic conditions before making any shifts in its monetary policy, NY Fed Pres John Williams said. “Monetary policy is in a good place,” Williams added. “But, as we’ve proven in the past, if economic conditions shift, change in a material way … obviously we’re ready to adjust our policy views accordingly.” The Fed cut rates 3 times this year in a near-complete reversal of its 2018 policy moves. Last year, the central bank hiked rates 4 times. The last rate hike of 2018 added fuel to a massive year-end sell-off in the stock market. “With the rate cuts that we did this year, we created a situation where monetary policy is supportive and accommodating growth,” Williams said. “That’s a good position given what’s going on in the economy.” At its most recent meeting, the Fed last week set a high bar for further rate cuts & an even higher one to kick off another tightening cycle. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting that he wants to see persistently higher inflation before hiking rates again. US inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed's 2% goal. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank's preferred inflation measure, rose just 1.6% in Oct on a year-over-year basis.
NY Fed’s Williams says it would take a ‘material’ change in economy for Fed to adjust stance
The “phase one” trade deal between the US & China, supposedly a game changer for the global economy going by the stock market's rise to a record after the announcement, has left many analysts & investors puzzled about what was specifically agreed to by both sides. Skepticism is brewing in the markets as much of the details have not been confirmed by both sides. China, in particular, has been reluctant to commit to the amount of agriculture products it’s willing to buy, while big numbers are floating from DC. Beijing has also been quiet about tariffs on US goods as well as an enforcement mechanism. Chinese officials were light on the deal content when unveiling the text of the agreement. In a news conference Fri, they said Beijing will increase agricultural purchases “significantly” without specifying by how much. Meanwhile, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said China pledged to buy a total of $40B in farm goods over a 2-year period. Pres Trump touted “massive” buying – $50B — from China will start “pretty soon.” In a regular news briefing today, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang repeatedly dodged questions on the terms of the phase one trade deal, according to a transcript on its website. China's Ministry of Commerce also published its economic priorities for 2020, which only mentioned the trade conflict with the US in passing. Again, it contained no deal details. In an outline of its “six priorities, plus one” for next year, China listed “properly dealing with China-US trade disputes” without elaborating further. The 2 sides are in the process of simply translating the text of the deal, Lighthizer maintains, adding they are aiming to sign the accord in early Jan. Chinese officials said the final step is to complete the legal & translation work before signing. The US offered a 2-page fact sheet on Fri, stating the deal addresses “intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange” & “includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.” Trump also said the US would begin negotiations on the next phase of the trade deal “immediately,” rather than waiting until after the 2020 election. China has not commented on the status of a phase 2 agreement.
Uncertainty remains on Wall Street about China-US phase one agreement: ‘More
Stocks tried to make today the 6th straight day of gains but they couldn't quite make it. In general, macro economic data & attitudes on stocks are good, although buying enthusiasm has slowed in the last week. The market is overbought & some traders may have started their holidays early. But the biggest culprit is the article above. There is a lot of optimism about a China trade deal & nobody is quite sure where it stands. That makes investors nervous about buying.
Dow Jones Industrials
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