Dow gained 105 (closing at the session high), advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ shot up 69 to go over 9K for the first time. The MLP index went up 1+ to the 221s & the REIT index crawled higher to 401. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries inched higher. Oil rose in the 61s & gold advanced 11 to 1515 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
United Parcel Service (UPS) said that it forecasts a record National Returns Day, with 1.9M returns expected, up 26% from last year. National Returns Day is on Jan 2, 2020. This will be the 7th consecutive record National Returns Day due to growing e-commerce activity, according to UPS. The process of sorting through all of those returns to determine what can be sold, what needs to be repackaged, or what needs to be tossed at a loss is where retailers are spending big money. The UPS Pulse of the Online Shopper study found that 73% of online shoppers base their decision to make another purchase from a retailer on the return experience. There's also an environmental component to all of these returns . Optoro data shows that B pounds of waste from returned items ends up in landfills, equal to all of the trash created by 5M Americans in a year.
Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
Gold futures settled above $1500 an ounce, marking a 3rd session of gains in a row & the highest finish for the precious metal since the end of Oct. Bullish gold investors say bullion has benefited in recent trade on doubts about a China trade deal being completed, concerns about the implications of Pres Trump's recent impeachment by the House & worries about stock market valuations being stretched at least in the US. Gold for Feb added $9.60 (0.6%) to settle at $1514 an ounce, its highest settlement since Oct 31. On Tues, gold rose 1.1% to break above the psychologically important level at $1500. Pres Trump has said that a trade deal with China was ready for signing in Jan & Chinese officials have confirmed that the 2 sides are in close contact on a partial trade agreement. However, gold has been viewed as a good way to hedge the possibility of a further breakdown in the back-&-forth talks between China & the US, or a disappointment about the details of any pact. Gold appetite could be supported in the coming weeks as traditional buyers of precious metals scoop up bullion as gifts for holidays like the Lunar New Year. Gains for gold in recent trade have come even as investors have driven major US stock benchmarks, which tend to move in the opposite direction, to a series of all-time highs. However, gains recently have been tepid as investors brace for trade in a year that could be marked by a change of leadership in the White House & festering Sino-American trade tensions.
The Dow was treading sideways for most of the day, with buying into the close giving it much of today's advance. NAZ was strong all day as it reached another milestone. The 3 popular stock indices closed at record highs with the thoughts of signing a US-China trade deal in the heads of investors. If that is accomplished, Jan should see the averages extend the current rally.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
United Parcel Service (UPS) said that it forecasts a record National Returns Day, with 1.9M returns expected, up 26% from last year. National Returns Day is on Jan 2, 2020. This will be the 7th consecutive record National Returns Day due to growing e-commerce activity, according to UPS. The process of sorting through all of those returns to determine what can be sold, what needs to be repackaged, or what needs to be tossed at a loss is where retailers are spending big money. The UPS Pulse of the Online Shopper study found that 73% of online shoppers base their decision to make another purchase from a retailer on the return experience. There's also an environmental component to all of these returns . Optoro data shows that B pounds of waste from returned items ends up in landfills, equal to all of the trash created by 5M Americans in a year.
UPS expects a record-breaking 1.9 million returns on National Returns Day
Pres Trump's stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors. The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double
the 23% average market return of pres's 3 years into their term,
according to data from Bespoke Investment Group dating to 1928. The bellwether index gained more than 28% this year, well above the average 12.8% return of year 3 for past pres's. “Year three has been by far the best year of the
cycle with an average gain of 12.81%, and the playbook has stuck to the
script in year three of the current cycle,” the firm said. Despite the volatility from the US-China trade war, 2019 has been a year of all-time highs for the major stock averages. The S&P 500 crossed 3200 for the first time ever last week, hitting its 7th
round-number milestone of 2019. While business investment slumped due to
uncertainty surrounding the world's 2 largest economies, public
market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks. Trump's market got a boost from Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell & the central bank, which lowered interest rates 3 times this year, the first time since the end of the financial
crisis. The Fed slashed rates on fears of slowing growth at home &
abroad. Trump was highly critical of Powell for not lowering rates more & faster, often mentioning the near $15T in negative yielding
gov securities outside the US. Markets were also helped by
one of the tightest labor markets in history, with the unemployment
rate currently at 3.5%, its lowest since 1969. And since Americans were
working, they were also spending. The strong consumer held the
economy up during some reported manufacturing contractions. Consumers
also held strong amid a messy bond market, when shorter-term bond yields
rose above long-term yields, causing the yield curve to invert, a
phenomenon known to precede recessions. The curve has since steepened
and is no longer inverted. Trump's first year was about triple the presidential average, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.4% compared with the average 5.7%. Businesses got help from Trump's 2017 tax overhaul, with companies buying a record number of shares back with the extra money. The
sore spot for Trump's record was year 2. Trump's market had a below
average year in 2018, when the stock market suffered its worst Dec in 10 tears amid the intensified US-China trade war &
a rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 fell 6.2%,
compared with the average gain of 4.5%. If history is any guide, Trump is in for another strong year in 2020. Stocks are up in year 4 more than 66% of the time & the S&P 500 returns an average of 5.7%. Much of these stock gains will depend on how trade talks go with China. Earlier this month, the countries announced a “phase one” trade deal in
which China agreed to buy Bs in US agricultural products & the
US agreed to cancel a round of tariffs. For the most part, stocks
shrugged off the deal due to its lack of clarity & uncertain path to
phase 2.
Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
Crude-oil prices settled solidly higher, in thin postholiday action, as a weekly inventory report indicated a bigger-than-expected decline in stockpiles for oil. American Petroleum Institute reported late Tues that US crude supplies fell by 7.9M barrels for last week, according to sources. That was more than expectations for a draw of draw of 1.8M. The weekly inventory report also showed a 2.2M barrel decline in key US oil delivery hub Cushing, Okla. West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb delivery, the US benchmark grade, added 57¢ (0.9%) to settle at $61.68 a barrel, after rising 1% yesterday. The settlement marked the highest for the benchmark since Sep 16. Feb Brent crude rose 72¢ (1.1%) to finish at $67.92 a barrel, following a 1.2% gain in the prior session. The intl benchmark also finished at a more than 3-month high. Trading was mostly subdued, with a number of markets remaining closed for the holidays. Trading for crude & its byproducts have been mostly influenced by positive signs from China & the US on the trade front. Chinese officials yesterday confirmed that they were close to signing a phase one trade deal, a day after Pres Trump said he & China's Pres Xi Jinping would have a signing ceremony for the partial trade pact. The 18-month old trade war between the 2 large economies has hit global economic growth & demand for oil, weighing on crude prices for most of the year
Oil prices end at 3-month high as report shows 7.9 million drop in U.S. crude inventories
Gold futures settled above $1500 an ounce, marking a 3rd session of gains in a row & the highest finish for the precious metal since the end of Oct. Bullish gold investors say bullion has benefited in recent trade on doubts about a China trade deal being completed, concerns about the implications of Pres Trump's recent impeachment by the House & worries about stock market valuations being stretched at least in the US. Gold for Feb added $9.60 (0.6%) to settle at $1514 an ounce, its highest settlement since Oct 31. On Tues, gold rose 1.1% to break above the psychologically important level at $1500. Pres Trump has said that a trade deal with China was ready for signing in Jan & Chinese officials have confirmed that the 2 sides are in close contact on a partial trade agreement. However, gold has been viewed as a good way to hedge the possibility of a further breakdown in the back-&-forth talks between China & the US, or a disappointment about the details of any pact. Gold appetite could be supported in the coming weeks as traditional buyers of precious metals scoop up bullion as gifts for holidays like the Lunar New Year. Gains for gold in recent trade have come even as investors have driven major US stock benchmarks, which tend to move in the opposite direction, to a series of all-time highs. However, gains recently have been tepid as investors brace for trade in a year that could be marked by a change of leadership in the White House & festering Sino-American trade tensions.
Gold price marks highest finish in more than 8 weeks
The Dow was treading sideways for most of the day, with buying into the close giving it much of today's advance. NAZ was strong all day as it reached another milestone. The 3 popular stock indices closed at record highs with the thoughts of signing a US-China trade deal in the heads of investors. If that is accomplished, Jan should see the averages extend the current rally.
Dow Jones Industrials
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