Dow rose 51, advancers over decliners better than 3-2 & NAZ went up 34. The MLP index added 1+ to the 221s & the REIT index gained 1+ to the 401s. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries crawled up in price. Oil climbed into the 61s & gold rose 9 to 1508.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks opened with small gains after Beijing confirmed that it is in close contact with the US in regards to a signing of their partial trade agreement. The early gains have stocks looking to add to the Santa Claus rally that began on Tues. The last 5 trading days of the year 2 the first 2 of the following year are defined as the Santa Claus rally. The NAZ & S&P 500 are at new highs, while the Dow flirts with its own as quiet holiday trade continues ahead of the New Year. The NAZ has closed at a record high in 9 straight sessions, the longest streak since 1998. Retail stocks were in focus after Mastercard said holiday sales rose 3.4% year-over-year, boosted by an 18.8% in online spending. Looking at commodities, gold was up 0.5% at $1512 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed near $61.15 an ounce. Treasuries were flat with the yield on the 10-year note holding near 1.905%. Chinese markets surged after the gov announced a relaxation of residency restrictions for small & medium cities that boosted property stocks. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 0.9%. Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.6%.
Letting their fingers do the work on the keyboard was the primary way customers did their holiday shopping. US holiday e-commerce sales hit a new record high, up 18.8% from the 2018 period, according to Mastercard data. Overall holiday retail sales rose 3.4%. Pres Trump took to Twitter to trumpet the data. Sales estimates from the National Retail Federation ranged from 3.8-4.2%. E-commerce sales this year represented 14.6% of total retail between Nov 1 & Christmas Eve. The holiday shopping season is crucial for retailers accounting for up to 40% of the sales for the year. The calendar didn't help the industry as Thanksgiving fell on Nov 28, which was a week later than last year. That meant retailers had 6 fewer days to drive sales leading to Christmas. "Due to a later than usual Thanksgiving holiday, we saw retailers offering omnichannel sales earlier in the season, meeting consumers’ demand for the best deals across all channels and devices," said Steve Sadove, senior adviser for MasterCard. According to analysts, the surge in shopping was boosted by wage growth & a string job market.
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell last week in a sign of ongoing labor market strength. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 13K to a seasonally adjusted 222K for last week, the Labor Dept said. The forecast called for claims falling to 224K. Claims have been volatile in recent weeks around the holiday season & end of the year. The drop in the latest week largely unwound a surge in new claims 2 weeks earlier that appeared to reflect a late Thanksgiving Day this year compared to 2018. That could have thrown off the model used by the gov to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, edged up 2K to 228K. The underlying trend in claims remains consistent with a strong labor market. In Nov, the US unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, the lowest in nearly ½ a century. Labor market strength is underpinning consumer spending, keeping the economy on a moderate growth path despite headwinds from trade tensions & slowing global growth that have weighed on manufacturing. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 6K to 1.72M for last week. The 4-week moving average of the continuing claims rose 19K to 1.7M.
US jobless claims fall, point to sustained labor market strength
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 61.53 | +0.42 | +0.7% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,508.70 | +9.60 | +0.6% |
Stocks opened with small gains after Beijing confirmed that it is in close contact with the US in regards to a signing of their partial trade agreement. The early gains have stocks looking to add to the Santa Claus rally that began on Tues. The last 5 trading days of the year 2 the first 2 of the following year are defined as the Santa Claus rally. The NAZ & S&P 500 are at new highs, while the Dow flirts with its own as quiet holiday trade continues ahead of the New Year. The NAZ has closed at a record high in 9 straight sessions, the longest streak since 1998. Retail stocks were in focus after Mastercard said holiday sales rose 3.4% year-over-year, boosted by an 18.8% in online spending. Looking at commodities, gold was up 0.5% at $1512 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed near $61.15 an ounce. Treasuries were flat with the yield on the 10-year note holding near 1.905%. Chinese markets surged after the gov announced a relaxation of residency restrictions for small & medium cities that boosted property stocks. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 0.9%. Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.6%.
Stocks set to broaden Santa Claus rally
Letting their fingers do the work on the keyboard was the primary way customers did their holiday shopping. US holiday e-commerce sales hit a new record high, up 18.8% from the 2018 period, according to Mastercard data. Overall holiday retail sales rose 3.4%. Pres Trump took to Twitter to trumpet the data. Sales estimates from the National Retail Federation ranged from 3.8-4.2%. E-commerce sales this year represented 14.6% of total retail between Nov 1 & Christmas Eve. The holiday shopping season is crucial for retailers accounting for up to 40% of the sales for the year. The calendar didn't help the industry as Thanksgiving fell on Nov 28, which was a week later than last year. That meant retailers had 6 fewer days to drive sales leading to Christmas. "Due to a later than usual Thanksgiving holiday, we saw retailers offering omnichannel sales earlier in the season, meeting consumers’ demand for the best deals across all channels and devices," said Steve Sadove, senior adviser for MasterCard. According to analysts, the surge in shopping was boosted by wage growth & a string job market.
Online sales record leads holiday shopping surge
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell last week in a sign of ongoing labor market strength. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 13K to a seasonally adjusted 222K for last week, the Labor Dept said. The forecast called for claims falling to 224K. Claims have been volatile in recent weeks around the holiday season & end of the year. The drop in the latest week largely unwound a surge in new claims 2 weeks earlier that appeared to reflect a late Thanksgiving Day this year compared to 2018. That could have thrown off the model used by the gov to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, edged up 2K to 228K. The underlying trend in claims remains consistent with a strong labor market. In Nov, the US unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, the lowest in nearly ½ a century. Labor market strength is underpinning consumer spending, keeping the economy on a moderate growth path despite headwinds from trade tensions & slowing global growth that have weighed on manufacturing. The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 6K to 1.72M for last week. The 4-week moving average of the continuing claims rose 19K to 1.7M.
US jobless claims fall, point to sustained labor market strength
Mortgage rates moved just a tiny bit higher, but apparently it was enough to dampen interest in refinances. That
caused overall mortgage application volume to fall 5.3% last week
compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association's seasonally adjusted index. The
average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with
conforming loan balances ($484K or less) increased to 3.99% from
3.98%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.33 (including the
origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. “The 10-Year
Treasury yield increased last week amid signs of stronger homebuilding
activity and solid consumer spending, leading to a rise in conventional
conforming and jumbo 30-year mortgage rates to just under 4 percent,”
said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist. As a result,
applications to refinance a home loan fell 5% from the previous week but
were still 128% higher than a year ago, when rates were 87 basis points
higher. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.6 % of
total applications from 62.2% the previous week. Mortgage
applications to purchase a home fell 5% for the week but were 5% higher
compared with the same week one year ago. Interest rates are not the
primary reason home sales are slowing. There is a severe shortage of
existing homes for sale & that has sidelined would-be buyers,
especially at the lower end of the market. “We are in the slowest
time of the year for the purchase market,” Fratantoni added. “The
increase in construction activity will bolster housing inventories,
which should be a positive for purchase volumes going into 2020.”
Weekly mortgage applications pull back as rates edge toward 4%
Not much going on a quiet day for trading. Volume is light & should be even lighter tomorrow. The popular averages are at or essentially at record highs, although there are plenty of nervous investors who are buying gold at around a 3 month high.
Weekly mortgage applications pull back as rates edge toward 4%
Not much going on a quiet day for trading. Volume is light & should be even lighter tomorrow. The popular averages are at or essentially at record highs, although there are plenty of nervous investors who are buying gold at around a 3 month high.
Dow Jones Industrials
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