Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Markets advance after Powell's testimony

Dow went up 183, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ rebounded 210 after recent weakness.  The MLP index rose 4+ to the 195s & the REIT index finished steady in the 487s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries rose, bringing lower yields.  Oil jumped 3+ to the 81s & gold shot up 21 to 1820 (more on both below).

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hammered home the central's bank commitment to cooling red-hot inflation as he made his case for a 2nd term.  "I think that inflationary pressures do seem to be on track to last well into the middle of next year. And if they last longer than that, then I'll just say that our policy will continue to adapt," he said.  Policymakers underestimated the rapid uptick in prices coining the ascent "transitory" even as costs skyrocketed.  Everything from gas, home heating fuel & appliances cost more, with beef, veal & bacon up by double-digits.  The Consumer Price Index jumped 6.8% in Nov, while prices at the producer level soared by a record 9.6%.  Powell, during the Fed's final meeting of 2021, gave a mea culpa on the wrong way call.  "These problems have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, exacerbated by waves of the virus. As a result, overall inflation is running well above our 2 percent longer-run goal and will likely continue to do so well into next year" he said.  Following the meeting, Larry Summers, who served as Treasury Secretary under Pres Clinton & National Economic Council Director under Pres Obama, called Powell out-of-touch.  "A recognition of the need to change direction, as manifest in the Federal Open Market Committee statement statement and Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference Wednesday, was necessary but not sufficient for successfully achieving price stabilization and sustained growth. I see grounds for substantial concern in both the intrinsic difficulty of the task at hand and in misconceptions that the Fed still seems to hold," Summers wrote in a commentary.

Fed’s Powell pledges inflation fight in renomination hearing

The number of patients with Covid-19 in US. hospitals surpassed last winter's peak over the weekend & the country reported another single-day record of nearly 1.5M new cases yesterday, 2 grim milestones as the nation's health system grapples with the extremely contagious omicron variant.  There were 144K Americans hospitalized with the virus as of yesterday, above the prior high mark of 142K patients recorded lasr Jan 14, according to data tracked by the Dept of Health & Human Services (HHS) & the count has climbed to 147K as of today.  The country also reported roughly 1.5M new cases yesterday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, pushing the 7-day average to 754K new cases per day.  To be sure, a large portion of Covid hospitalizations appear to stem from people admitted for other reasons who test positive for the virus once they're in a facility.  And while hospitalizations are the highest on record, HHS didn't start collecting the data until Aug 2020 so it doesn't capture the first early surge of cases that spring.  The daily tally of confirmed infections is also likely artificially high since many states report their weekend Covid testing data on Mondays.  White House chief medical advisor Dr Anthony Fauci saidlast week that a growing body of evidence indicates the Covid omicron variant is less severe than the delta strain.  More data is needed to confirm that, he said, cautioning that the sheer volume of infections & hospitalized people could still strain hospital systems.  “A certain proportion of a large volume of cases, no matter what, are going to be severe,” Fauci said.  “So don’t take this as a signal that we can pull back from the recommendations.”

U.S. sets fresh records for Covid hospitalizations and cases with 1.5 million new infections

France saw its Covid-19 infection rate hit a new record on tosday as the new highly-contagious omicron variant sweeps across the European continent.  The figure of 368K in the last 24 hours trumps a previous record of 332K set on Jan 5.  Its 7-day moving average of cases was nearly 270K yesterday, according to Our World in Data, significantly above tallies in neighboring nations like the UK.  France is about to implement a strict Covid passport system whereby citizens will need to be vaccinated before they can enter restaurant or indoor events, rather than being either vaccinated or registering a negative test.  Pres Emmanuel Macron sparked controversy last week after saying he would make life difficult for those citizens who refuse a Covid-19 vaccine.  “I am not for bothering the French. I rant all day at the administration when it blocks them. Well, there, the unvaccinated, I really want to hassle them. And so, we will continue to do it, until the end,” the French leader said.  His comments coincided with parliamentary discussions over the Covid passes.  Macron used the French word “emmerder” in his interview, which can be roughly translated as “hassle” or “annoy,” or would be close to the phrase “piss off.”

France reports new Covid infection record with daily cases surging to over 360,000

Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, sales & deliveries of new planes surged last year as customers looked beyond the Covid pandemic's toll on travel demand, but the manufacturer still ended 2021 behind chief rival Airbus.  BA handed over 340 jetliners to airlines a& other buyers, up from 157 in 2020.  The deliveries were led largely by the 737 Max, which regulators worldwide had grounded for nearly 2 years after a fatal crash in 2018 & another in 2019.  Airbus said yesterday that it delivered 611 planes last year, up 8% from 2020.  The increase in deliveries was welcome news for BA, which has struggled in the wake of the crashes, the pandemic & manufacturing issues that have paused handovers to customers of its 787 Dreamliners for much of the past 14 months.  BA logged 909 gross orders for jets, more than 700 for the Max.  Sales of freighters were another bright spot, thanks to a surge in e-commerce demand & air freight with BA.  The stock rose 6.68 (3%).
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Boeing 2021 deliveries surged, led by return of 737 Max, but were still behind Airbus

Gold futures posted their highest finish in nearly a week, with comments from the Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell doing little to sway expectations for higher inflation & volatility in financial markets.  At his confirmation hearing for a 2nd 4-year term as chairman, Powell said the central bank's plans to raise interest rates should not throw a wrench in the economy or damage the job market, essentially painting a picture of a “soft landing” rather than a recession.  Feb gold rose $19 (1.1%) to settle at $1818 an ounce, with the most-active contract logging the highest settlement since Jan 5.  Gold also tallied a 3rd consecutive settlement in positive territory — the longest string of gains since a 7-session stretch ended Nov 12.  The advance for bullion prices came despite recent strength in yields for gov debt & the $, which would usually serve as a headwind for the $-priced commodity that doesn't offer a coupon.  Today, the 10-year Treasury note was yielding 1.755%, down slightly from 1.779%, while the $ was down 0.3%, little changed for the week so far, as measured by the ICE US Dollar Index.

Gold futures post highest finish in nearly a week after Powell’s testimony

Oil futures rose, with US prices marking their highest finish in about 2 months, supported by tight supplies & growing expectations that the omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus won't derail global demand.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb rose $2.99 (3.8%) to settle at at $81.22 a barrel.  That was the highest front-month contract prices finish since Nov 11.  Mar Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $2.85 (3.5%) to $83.72 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov 9.  Both WTI & Brent have rallied nearly 8% so far in 2022.  Today's gains came despite reports that production in Libya had recovered and that activity at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field had returned to normal.  Worries about hits to production in the 2 countries had helped to lift crude last week.  Oil production in Libya has returned to 1M barrels a day after militias lifted a 3-week blockade of oil fields, including the nation's largest.  Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock, which leads the Tengizchevroil consortium, said production at Kazakhstan's 600K-barrel-a-day Tengiz oil field has returned to normal after being disrupted by unrest last week.  OPEC+ saw production quota compliance rise to 116.5% in Dec, but the 19 members subject to the output targets pumped some 620K barrels per day below their combined caps.  The Energy Information Administration expects annual US production to reach a record next year.   In a monthly report, the gov agency sees output rising to 12.4M barrels per day in 2023, the highest annual average on record.

U.S. oil prices settle at a 2-month high on fading omicron worries, tight supplies

Powell's comments were well received even though he implied higher interest rates to fight inflation down the road.  The Dow rose 400 following his testimony,  Unfortunately, the Covid war drags on around the globe with no end in sight.  At least the present variant appears less harmful.  The Dow is down only 90 YTD.  WTI is back over 80, in its highest region over the last 7 years.

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