Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Markets slide lower on inflation fears

Dow dropped 99, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ was off 70.  The MLP index fell 1 to the 197s & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 477s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries saw more buying although prices are below earlier highs (more below).  Oil  jumped 1+ to the 87s & gold soared 26 to 1839.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil  86.61
   +1.18+1.4%
























GC=FGold    1,837.60
 +25.20+1.4%


























 

 




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The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.9%, its highest point since 2019.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note moved nearly 2 basis points lower to 1.85% after hitting 1.904% earlier.  The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 1 basis point to 2.174%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  Bond yields have been surging this year amid growing investor anticipation that the Federal Reserve could soon start to hike interest rates.  The 2-year Treasury yield, which reflects short-term interest rate expectations, also topped 1% for the first time in 2 years yesterday & remained higher today, hovering above 1.01%.  In addition, the German 10-year bund yield traded in positive territory for the first time in nearly 3 years today.  The ECB is currently behind on its normalization path, compared to the Fed & the Bank of England, but surging inflation & wider moves in the global bond market have now helped to push yields above zero.

10-year Treasury yield hits 1.9% as investors bet on rate hike

Procter & Gamble (PG), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported quarterly earnings & revenue that topped expectations as price hikes helped offset higher commodity & freight costs.  On the heels of its strong performance, the company raised its outlook for sales growth but said it expects inflation to weigh even more heavily on its fiscal 2022 results.  EPS rose to $1.66 per share, up from $1.47 a year earlier.  The forecast expected $1.65.  Net sales rose 6% to $20.95B, topping expectations of $20.34B.  Organic revenue, which strips out the impact of foreign currency, acquisitions & divestitures, also rose 6%.  About ½ of that growth came from the benefit of raising prices on select products.  “While it’s very early for these commodity-based price increases, to date, we see positive signs,” CEO Jon Moeller said.  “Probably 20% to 30% less price elasticity than we were expecting, and if you look at, for example, private-label market shares — private label being the lowest price offered on the market — they’re down.”  More price increases are on the way.  Execs said that they already told retailers about increases planed for fabric care products, like Tide detergent & Downy dryer sheets, slated to take effect in Feb.  In mid-Apr, PG will raise prices on some of its personal health care products.  For fiscal 2022, P&G is now calling for 3-4% sales growth, up from its prior forecast of 2-4%.  It also plans to boost its stock buybacks for the fiscal year from $7B-9B to $9-10 B.  But the company didn't change its outlook for earnings as it also predicted higher costs.  For Q2, PG increased its inflation forecast.  The company expects to pay $2.3B after tax in commodity costs & $300M after tax for higher freight costs, up from last qtr's outlook of $2.1B on commodities & $200M on freight.  Combined with a $200M hit from foreign currency, PG is forecasting a headwind of $1.10, to its fiscal 2022 EPS compared with the year prior. The stock went up 6.12 (4%).
If you would like to learn more about PG click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PGa_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f

P&G earnings top estimates as price hikes offset rising costs

Pres Biden will make 400M highly protective N95 masks available to Americans for free at pharmacies & community health centers around the US, a White House official said.  The masks will start to become available late next week & the program will be fully up & running by early Feb.  The free masks are the largest deployment of personal protective equipment in US history.  The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention CDC), in updated guidance published last week.  CDC said N95 respirators are more effective at preventing transmission of the virus than cloth & surgical masks.  However, CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky has said wearing any mask is better than no mask.  The CDC said N95 masks must form a seal on the face to work properly, warning that gaps can let respiratory droplets that carry virus particles in & out of the mask.  The CDC recommends that everyone 2 years of age or older wear masks in indoor public spaces regardless of vaccination status in areas with substantial or high levels of viral transmission.  Right now, virtually every county in the US has high transmission of the virus.  People are required by federal law to wear masks on planes, buses, trains & other forms of public transportation.

Biden will make 400 million N95 masks available to Americans for free

The stock averages began trading higher, then the bears returned.  Inflation & higher prices are scary for investors.  The PG earnings statement gives guidance for more price hikes coming.  The charts below shows the Dow has been trending sideways in the last 3 months, along with ups & downs.  Even with higher interest rates, safe haven gold is in heavy demand.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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