Friday, January 7, 2022

Markets dip lower after December payroll report disappoints

Dow gave back 88, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ pulled back 173.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 189s & the REIT index was off 1 to the 492s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continue to be sold, raising interest rates.  Oil dropped to the 78s & gold inched up 2 to 1791.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil 79.18
 -0.28  -0.4%
























GC=FGold   1,792.50 
+3.30 +0.2%




















 

 




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UA job growth faltered in Dec just before the rapid spread of the new omicron variant cast a fresh threat over the economy & its recovery from the pandemic.  The Labor Dept said in its monthly payroll report that payrolls in Dec rose by 199K, sharply missing the 400K jobs forecast.  The unemployment rate, which is calculated based on a separate survey, dropped to 3.9% from 4.2% — the lowest level since the pandemic began.  The labor market had been gaining momentum after a delta-induced slowdown over the summer, but the latest figure represents the 2nd consecutive month of worse-than-expected growth, following upwardly revised gains of 249K in Nov & 648K in Oct.  The last time job growth was this slow was in Dec 2020, when employers cut 306K positions.  The figures suggest that despite high demand for workers, businesses are still struggling to attract new employees as factors like a lack of childcare, virus fears & large stimulus savings persevere.  The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9% as the labor shortage persists, despite the lower-than-expected unemployment drop.  Rising virus cases also pose a new risk to the labor market in 2022:  The Dec report only includes data from the first ½ of the month, before a stunning rise in cases driven by the highly transmissible omicron variant.  The US is now reporting a 7-day moving average of more than 540K cases.  While it's still unclear what the fast-spreading variant will ultimately mean for the health of the economy, its effects on daily life have already been felt:  Thousands of flights have been canceled, Broadway shows are shuttering their doors & a growing number of schools have postponed their reopenings.  In all, the economy gained 6.4M jobs over the duration of 2021, or an average of 537K per month – more than in any year on record.  But the nation remains 3.6M jobs short of pre-pandemic levels in Feb 2020.  Job growth last month was strongest in the leisure & hospitality sector, which added 53K positions, & professional & business services, which saw an increase of 43K.

Jobs report falls seriously short of expectations as hiring chills

Dept of Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said the White House is "very closely" watching the omicron variant's impact on future jobs reports after Dec's data largely missed expectations.  "We're going to anticipate the omicron variant could have some impacts on next month's report," Walsh said.  "There's no question about it.  The pundits or the experts always prepare a bigger number. And when I look at the report, it's a solid report," Walsh said.  The figures suggest that despite high demand for workers, businesses are still struggling to attract new employees as factors like a lack of childcare, virus fears & large stimulus savings persevere.  The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.9% as the labor shortage persists, despite the lower-than-expected unemployment drop.  "We're living in very unprecedented times, quite honestly in our country," Walsh added.  "There's a lot of work that we still have to do, and we need to continue to move forward collectively together."

US labor secretary: ‘No question’ omicron will impact next month’s jobs report

The number of New Yorkers in the hospital with Covid-19 is surging, but fewer of them are ending up in intensive care compared with prior waves — a sign that vaccines & the potentially milder omicron variant are making people less sick.  About 5900 patients are hospitalized with Covid-19 across New York City, 52% higher than last winter's peak of nearly 3900 reached on Feb 8, state data thru Wed shows.  The 666 patients currently in ICUs with Covid, however, remains below last winter's high mark of 773.  New York, where cases have been surging to record levels for weeks, has emerged as the epicenter of the country's omicron wave.  Survival rates there are being closely watched as a potential indication of what may happen around the country as the variant, which is now the dominant strain nationwide, takes further hold in other places.  Dr Adel Bassily-Marcus, an ICU specialist at Mt Sinai hospital in Manhattan, said that his unit is operating "close to normal" even as the number of patients testing positive for the virus has significantly risen over the past month.  "We have an increasing number of ICU patients, but nowhere near what we saw in the first wave," he said.  "It has increased to a lesser extent than the total number of hospitalizations."  Of the more than 1500 patients with Covid in one of Northwell Health's 22 hospitals across the Greater New York City area, 9% are in the ICU, according to the spokesman.  That figure was at 16% when Northwell was handling a similar number of Covid patients at this time last year.  One reason for the larger disconnect between hospitalized & ICU patients is the rising number of people who, due to the high level of viral transmission in the city, enter a hospital for something other than Covid & test positive once admitted.  About 40% of Northwell's 1500 Covid patients fall into that category.  At NYU Langone Health, about 65% of the patients with Covid came to the hospital for something else, a spokeswoman said added that the number of patients being admitted to the ICU for Covid is down 58% from Jan 2021 levels.

Covid hospitalizations surge in New York City, but fewer patients are in the ICU

While the disappointing claims data is getting the headlines, the unemployment rate under 4% is close to record lows.  On the other hand, the next jobs report,which comes in Feb, will include the misery many people endured at the end of the year.  The data on the omicron variant suggests the virus is finally losing its fight.

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