Friday, January 7, 2022

Markets dip after uneven economic data and higher interest rates

Dow with selling into the close was off 4, advancers modestly ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 144.  The MLP index added 2 to 191 & the REIT index was off 2+ tp 491.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil slid back to the 78s & gold gained 7 to 1796 (more on both below).

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Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Several airports  throughout the Northeast announced flight cancellations today as a winter storm sweeps the region, making travel treacherous.  Early today, more than 330 flights had already been canceled at LaGuardia Airport in Queens (NYC).  Meanwhile, more than 220 flights were canceled at John F Kennedy Intl Airport, also located in Queens & another 230 flights were canceled at New Jersey's Newark Liberty Intl Airport.  Philadelphia Intl Airport & Dulles Intl Airport in Virginia tweeted that flights in & out of the airports are also being delayed & canceled without giving an exact number.  The airports are urging customers to check their flight status before traveling to the airport.  The National Weather Service said today that its radar was "capturing bands of heavy snow-some with reports of 1-3" per hour rates" in the Northeast & that "travel has become very treacherous."  In some parts of Connecticut, there is already "well over half a foot" of snow, the National Weather Service tweeted.  Meanwhile, parts of the South were also hit with snow, freezing rain & sleet yesterday, hindering travel in Tennessee & Kentucky.  Nashville saw 6.3 inches of snowfall, the National Weather Service said.  Freezing rain & sleet coated areas around the Tennessee-Alabama state border, said Scott Unger, a meteorologist for the service in Nashville.  Some flights out of Nashville Inl Airport were canceled or delayed in the AM, but the airport tweeted that flights are scheduled to operate now that the snow has stopped in the area. 

Hundreds of flights cancelled as Winter storms sweep the Northeast region

The Food & Drug Administration (FDA) shortened the interval between the primary series of Moderna's (MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine & a booster dose to 5 months, as it looks to bolster protection against the fast-spreading Omicron variant.  The agency expects the shorter interval, reduced by a month for people aged 18 & above, will provide better protection sooner against the variant, which is driving up infections & overwhelming hospitals.  The US reported 662K new COVID-19 cases yesterday, the 4th highest daily US total ever recorded.  The Omicron-driven surge in COVID-19 cases has likely not topped out yet, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said.  "Vaccination is our best defense against COVID-19, including the circulating variants, & shortening the length of time between completion of primary series & a booster dose may help reduce waning immunity," Peter Marks, director of the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation & Research, said.  The stock fell 2.15.
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FDA cuts gap for Moderna COVID-19 booster dose as cases surge

The 30-year fixed-rate fell in Dec, but a small rally at the start of 2022 has seen the rates increase to their highest level since May 2020 – more than a ½ a % higher than Jan 2021 when the rate sat at 2.65%.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) & loan company Freddie Mac reported an average rate of 3.22%, while other financial advisors cited a rate of 3.35% - both figures indicating robust growth in demand & expectations for the coming year.  The 15-year fixed-rate reached 2.43% compared to 2.16% a year ago.  Time NextAdvisor showed that some groups, such as Sage Mortgage, continue to offer rates of around 2.69% while Better Mortgage offered a rate of around 3.65%.  Fears over the COVID-19 delta variant around the summer of 2021 caused the rate to dip to 2.77%.  The rally thru the end of the year would suggest that the impact was temporary & fears of the omicron variant had little to no impact.   "Elevated inflation and the Fed’s taper acceleration will move up mortgage rates in January. I expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 3.2 percent and the 15-year fixed mortgage rate to average 2.5 percent this month," said NAR Director of Forecasting Nadia Evangelou.  Evangelou credited the addition of 6M jobs over the past year as a significant factor towards the increase in the mortgage rate.  The NAR forecast that rates could reach as high as 3.7% by the end of 2022.  The higher rate may deter some prospective buyers, but the demand for housing will remain "robust," the group predicted.

Mortgage rates hit new high after very long stint

Gold futures ended with a gainy after a report on the US labor market showed that the country created 199K new jobs in Dec, far short of estimates for more than twice that figure.  Prices, however, still suffered a loss for the week, their worst since Thanksgiving week.  The report, which some viewed as mixed because of some positive aspects embedded in the monthly update, may signal that labor shortages & the omicron variant of coronavirus that causes COVID-19 are still hamstringing the jobs market.  The 199K new jobs in Dec came in well below the 422K jobs forecast.  The jobless rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.9% from 4.2%, while hourly pay jumped 19¢ (0.6%) to $30.31.  Gold has been pressured by prospects of tighter monetary policy from the Fed & it is unclear what, if any impact, this will have on the central bank, which next meets Jan 25-26.  Feb gold rose $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1797 an ounce, after a 2% drop — its steepest daily decline in over 6 weeks — left the most-active contract at the lowest level since Dec 21 yesterday.  For the week, most-active gold futures fell 1.7% for the sharpest weekly decline since Nov 26.  The 10-year Treasury note yields traded at 1.762% holding near the highest levels since late Mar of 2021.  The steady climb in Treasury yields has dulled appetite for nonyielding precious metals.  Minutes from the Fed's last meeting in 2021 indicated that policy makers may be more inclined to take a more aggressive tack in winding down the central bank’s $8.9T balance sheet than the last time it reduced it, after it raises interest rates at least 3 times in 2022, market-based estimates project.

Gold ends higher after December jobs report, but logs sharpest weekly loss since Thanksgiving

Oil futures turned lower, but held onto a weekly gain of more than 5% as investors continued to monitor unrest in Kazakhstan that threatens to add to supply outages that have helped boost crude prices.  Violent protests, sparked by a sharp rise in fuel prices, have rocked Kazakhstan this week, with scores of protesters & more than a dozen law enforcement officers killed.  The internet across the country was shut down & 2 airports, including on in Almaty, the nation's largest city were closed.  Today, the country’s pres said order had been restored.  The govt also announced a 180-day price cap on vehicle fuel & a moratorium on utility rate increases.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb was down 31¢ (0.4%) at $79.15 a barrel, but remained had a 5.3% weekly rise.  Mar Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 3¢ to $81.96 a barrel, with a 5.4% weekly rise.  The operator of the Tengiz oil field, the country's largest at 600K barrels a day, yesterday said it had made a technical adjustment due to logistics issues.  Kazakhstan is the largest producer in the former Soviet Union at around 1.6M barrels a day.

Oil ends lower, but notches a roughly 5% gain for the week on Kazakhstan unrest

The Dow was off 100 this week while NAZ dropped 700.  Tech stocks are having a tough time finding friends.  Gold lost 32 but oil was up 3 this week.  The economy is doing reasonably well, but difficulties remain with an uneven recovery, inflation fears & Covid which has not been defeated yet.

Dow Jones Industrials







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