Friday, January 21, 2022

Markets ease higher after a weak opening while Treasury yields retreat

Dow went up 98, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ was off 38.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 192s & the REIT index recovered 4+ to 471.  Junk bond funds slipped lower & Treasuries were bid higher after the recent rally in prices.  Oil slid back to the 84s & gold  dropped 9 to 1833.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil84.16
 -1.39 -1.6%













GC=FGold     1,835.90
  -6.70
 -0.4%





 

 




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Pediatric infectious disease specialist Dr.Roberta DeBiasi said that at omicron’s peak 67 children were hospitalized with Covid at the Children's National Hospital in DC — a pandemic high & almost 3 times higher than the delta peak.  About 45 children are currently hospitalized there, she added.  While more children are hospitalized with Covid, due to omicron's high level of transmissibility, they don't appear to be getting sicker than they did with previous strains, physicians say.  More than 80 children are currently hospitalized with Covid in the Children's Healthcare of Atlanta system, which has 3 hospitals, compared with 15 children on any given day during most of Oct & Nov, when delta was the dominant variant.  However, the percentage of children in the ICU — about 10-15% of those hospitalized — is probably slightly lower than what the hospital saw during the delta wave's peak, said Dr Andi Shane, head of the infectious disease division at Children's Healthcare of Atlanta.  The FDA cleared Pfizer's (PFE) Covid shots for 12-15-year-olds on May 10 & 5- to 11-year-olds on Oct. 29, giving a large portion of those kids some protection against omicron.  Roughly 55% of kids ages 12-17 & 19% of children ages 5-11 are fully vaccinated right now, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.

Covid hospitalizations of kids hit pandemic high, worrying doctors and parents 

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, has said that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could “throw cold water” on already weak economic recoveries in certain countries.  Georgieva said an increase in US rates could have significant implications for countries with higher levels of $-denominated debt.  She said it was therefore “hugely important” that the Fed was clearly communicating its policy plans to prevent surprises.  Higher US interest rates could make it more expensive for countries to service their $-denominated debt.  On a panel, Georgieva said the IMF's message to countries with high levels of $-denominated debt was: “Act now. If you can extend maturities, please do it. If you have currency mismatches, now is the moment to address them.”  She added that her biggest concern is for low income countries with high levels of this debt, highlighting that 2/3 were now either in “debt distress” or in danger of falling into it — that's twice as many as in 2015.  The IMF expects the global economic recovery to continue, Georgieva said, but stressed that it was “losing some momentum.”  “2022 is like navigating an obstacle course,” she added, given risks such as rising inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic & high debt levels.  The IMF warned in Dec that global debt hit $226T in 2020 — the largest one-year rise since World War II.  With regards to inflation, Georgieva stressed that the problem is country specific.  Prices are rising at startling speeds in a number of countries: euro zone inflation hit a record high of 5% in Dec, the UK inflation rate hit a 30-year high in the same month & the US consumer price index rose at its fastest pace since 1982.

IMF chief says Fed rate hike could ‘throw cold water’ on global recovery

Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year rate falling to around 1.75%.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 7 basis points to 1.75% & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 6 basis points lower to 2.074%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 10-year Treasury yield hit 1.9% in early trading Wed, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve's timeline for raising interest rates & broadly tightening monetary policy.  A pullback in central bank economic support measures, along with concerns around rising inflation, also prompted investors to sell out of 2-year Treasuries, which indicate short-term interest rate expectations.  The 2-year yield topped 1% for the first time in 2 years earlier in the week & traded at 1.024% today.  The German 10-year bund yield traded in positive territory for the first time in nearly 3 years on Wed & has since fallen back to trade at 0.048% today.  Investors will now be turning their attention to the Fed's Jan 2-day policy meeting, set to start on Tues.

Treasury yields retreat; 10-year falls to 1.75%

At the opening, selling continued after heavy selling in late day trading yesterday.  In the  last hour, bulls returned to bid stock prices higher.  This has been a volatile week for stocks as investors weigh earnings & worry about what the Fed will do with interest rates next week.

Dow Jones Industrials

 





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