Monday, January 24, 2022

Markets plunge over Russian-Ukraine tensions

Dow nosedived 702, decliners over advancers a massive 9-1 & NAZ dropped 401.  The MLP index sold off 5+ to the 185s & the REIT index sank 11+ to 453.  Junk bond funds fell along with stocks & Treasuries are being purchased, bringing lower yields.  Oil dropped 2 to the 82s & gold went up 3 to 1834.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil     82.65
     -2.49- 2.9%






















GC=FGold      1,832.70
     +0.90+0.1%






























 

 




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The National Restaurant Association (NRA) is asking Congress to replenish the Restaurant Revitalization Fund as the omicron variant hits operators’ businesses.  Last year, lawmakers created the $28.6B fund to aid bars & restaurants struggling in the wake of the pandemic. The grants were designed to make up for a restaurant's full pandemic losses of up to $5M for a single location or $10M for a business with fewer than 20 locations.  Publicly traded companies were ineligible, but their franchisees could still apply.  Since the fund was depleted, restaurants have been pushing for Congress to replenish it.  Several lawmakers have introduced legislation to do so, but the bills haven’t gained traction & the Biden administration hasn't appeared interested in supporting the measure.  But the latest surge in Covid-19 cases & its impact on restaurants could change minds.  The NRA's latest survey of operators found that 88% of restaurants saw indoor dining demand wane because of the omicron variant.  More than ¾ of respondents told the trade group that business conditions are worse now than 3 months ago.  And the majority of operators said that their restaurant is less profitable now than it was before the pandemic.  “Alarmingly, the industry still hasn’t recreated the more than 650,000 jobs lost early in the pandemic, a loss 45% more than the next closest industry,” the trade group's lobbyist Sean Kennedy wrote in a letter to Congressional leadership for both parties.  Kennedy also touted the benefits of the first round of RRF grants.  The trade group estimates that more than 900K restaurants jobs were saved by the initial round of funding & 96% of recipients said the grant made it more likely they could stay in business.  A full replenishment of the fund would save more than 1.6M jobs, according to the trade group's estimates.

National Restaurant Association asks Congress for aid as omicron hits industry

The UAE intercepted 2 incoming ballistic missiles over its capital Abu Dhabi today.  “The Ministry of Defence announced that its air defence forces had intercepted & destroyed 2 ballistic missiles targeting the UAE, which were fired by the Houthi terrorist militia,” the UAE agency said.  There were no casualties from the attack & that “fragments of the ballistic missiles fell in different areas” around Abu Dhabi.  Residents in Abu Dhabi recounted being woken up by the sound of blasts, with some saying they initially thought it was thunder.  Videos shared on social media showed streaks of light shooting across the Abu Dhabi night sky followed by the sounds of explosions, believed to be interceptor missiles.  The footage has not been verified but showed known features of the UAE capital.  Stock markets across the oil-rich region fell following the news, with Dubai's main share index, the Dubai Financial Market General Index, falling by more than 2%.  The index’s 6 most valuable stocks were all down, with blue chip property giant Emaar leading losses of more than 3.5%.  The US State Dept issued a security alert shortly after the attempted attack, warning Americans in the area to take precautionary measures.

Ballistic missiles intercepted over Abu Dhabi; U.S. State Department issues alert

As Russian Pres Vladimir Putin inches closer to Ukraine, the world energy markets are facing a potentially seismic event threatening a global economic recession.  Pres Biden is considering sending a few thousand troops to Eastern Europe & the Baltic States as part of a broader NATO effort to bolster NATO allies that border the 2 countries.  With global oil supplies below normal & the International Energy Agency (IEA) reportedly admitting that it has been overstating global supplies, the loss of Russian oil & gas could be next to impossible to replace.  In Europe, already natural gas prices surged to record highs as the continent feels the impact of being over-reliant on Russia for that product.  On the petroleum side, Russia is currently the world's 2nd-largest producer & if it chooses to cut off supply or if supplies were disrupted because of an active war, the void in the global market would be massive.  Biden said that he expects that Russia will move into Ukraine & suggested that the country could do what is called a "minor incursion" that might cause less severe sanctions.  That seemed to invite Putin to cross some lines & an open invitation to invade.  The administration had to walk back those comments.  Ukraine also snapped back that there is no such thing as a minor incursion.  The pres still did warn Russia of "disaster" if it invades Ukraine & that word could extend to the global energy space.  Biden & some leaders from the West are assuming that Russia is more than likely to not use oil & gas as a political weapon because the Russian economy is so dependent on oil & gas money.  Yet, Putin suggests that he feels that the West is closing in on him, so desperate times might call for desperate measures.

Oil risks price rise as Putin inches into Ukraine

The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine war is shaking the stock market & the oil market.  As if that weren't enough, the FOMC has its meeting which will discuss the future of interest rates.  Also, this will be a big week for earnings.  That's plenty to digest & the initial response is already heavily negative.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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