Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Markets drift lower led by Target's earnings miss

Dow inched up 4, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ was off 159.  The MLP index was off 1 to the 221s & the REIT index slid back 1 to the 381s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries saw more buying, lowering yields.  Oil fell 2+ to the 84s & gold went up another 5 to 1782.

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Spending at retail stores rose faster than expected in Oct as consumers continue to open their wallets despite scorching-hot inflation.  Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods, including cars, food & gasoline, rose 1.3% in Oct, the Commerce Dept said.  The forecast expected sales to increase 1%.  That is a marked increase from the Sep data, which showed that retail sales were stagnant.  The Oct advance is not adjusted for inflation – which rose 0.4% last month – meaning that consumers may be spending the same but getting less bang for their buck.  When excluding spending on autos, sales edged up 0.1% in Sep.  Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%.  The Federal Reserve< has responded to the inflation crisis with the most aggressive action in decades as it races to catch up with runaway consumer prices.  Rising interest rates could force consumers to pull back on spending.

Consumers continue to spend despite scorching-hot inflation

Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, profit fell by around 50% in its fiscal Q3 as it cleared thru unwanted inventory & sales slowed heading into the holidays, prompting the company to lower its expectations for its most important time of year.  The company plans to cut up to $3 billion in total costs over the next 3 years, citing the need to become more efficient after 2 years of dramatic sales gainsBut revenue has grown by about 40% during the Covid pandemic.  TGT did not specify how it will reach its savings goal, but said it does not have plans for layoffs or a hiring freeze.  EPS was $1.54 vs $2.13 expected & revenue: was $26.5B vs $26.4B expected.  TGT saw sales decline as families contended with higher prices, making trade-offs between what they need & what they want – a potential warning sign for the holiday shopping season.  Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington said customers' price sensitivity intensified during the last 2 weeks of Oct.  “It was a precipitous decline and, frankly, we’ve seen those trends in the early part of November as well,” she said.  TGT did not provide an outlook beyond the holiday quarter, but said it expects tough conditions to persist.  The stock tumbled 22 (12%).
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Target shares plunge after retailer reports profit decline, warns of soft holiday quarter

Confidence among builders in the US housing market tumbled more than expected in Nov& to the lowest level in a decade as painfully high inflation & rising borrowing costs forced potential buyers to pull back.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the pulse of the single-family housing market, fell for the eleventh consecutive month to 33, marking the worst stretch for the housing market since the survey launched in 1985.  Any reading above 50 is considered positive; prior to this year, the gauge has not entered negative territory since 2012, excluding a brief – but steep – drop in May 2020.  The index has fallen to ½ of what it was just six months ago, when it stood at 76. It peaked at a 35-year high of 90 in November 2020, buoyed by record-low interest rates at the same time that American homebuyers – flush with cash & eager for more space during the pandemic – started flocking to the suburbs.  Nov's reading was below expectations for a decline to 36 from last month's recording of 38.

Confidence in home building drops to lowest level in a decade

News is not good today.  TGT results were disappointing.  Meanwhile the housing market, an important part of the economy, is in a serious slump at the same time interest rates are high & rising.  GDP is facing strong headwinds.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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