Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Markets rise and oil falls after economic data

Dow climbed 99, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ went up 122.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 225s & the REIT index was steady at 386.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries had modest buying, lowering yields.  Oil dropped 3+ to the 77s & gold crawled up 3 to 1742.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly ticked higher last week, hitting the highest level in 3 months.  Figures from the Labor Dept show initial claims for last week rose to 240K from the upwardly revised 223K recorded a week earlier.  That is above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218K claims & marks the highest level since mid-Aug.  Continuing claims, filed by Americans who are consecutively receiving unemployment benefits, rose slightly to 1.55M, up by 48K from the previous week's revised level.  One year ago, nearly 2.28M Americans were receiving unemployment benefits.  "Initial claims jumped higher than estimates in the latest week, but that’s not surprising given the high-profile layoffs of thousands of workers from big companies, especially tech firms," said Robert Frick, corp economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.  "The jobs market remains tight and one week doesn’t make a trend, so this is more likely a blip than a sign of labor market cooling."  Many prominent  companies have been announcing layoffs.

Jobless claims unexpectedly rise to highest level since August

Treasury yields were flat as investors looked to the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could provide clues about future monetary policy.  The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.733%, down 2.5 basis points & the yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 1.4 basis points at 4.531%.  Yields & prices move in opposite directions & one basis point equals 0.01%.  Investors are hoping to gain further insights into whether the Fed will slow interest rate hikes & what it will take for them to be paused entirely when the central bank's Nov meeting minutes are released later today.  Speaking yesterday, Kansas City Fed Pres Esther George said interest rates might still have to go higher as the Fed works to lower inflation & constrain consumer demand.  Her comments echoed the tone struck by her colleagues earlier in the week, which broadly indicated that rates would continue to rise, but potentially at a slower pace.  Concern about the pace of rate hikes leading the US economy into a recession has spread among traders.  They will therefore be scanning durable goods orders & new home sales data, due today, for clues about the state of the economy.

Treasury yields little changed as traders await Fed minutes, key economic data

The jobless data signals that unemployment is losing some off its strength, something the Fed will take not of at its Dec meeting.  Overall, the bulls are in command, at least so it seems.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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