Dow was off 100, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ dropped 99. The MLP index sold off 5+ to the 218s & the REIT fell 1+ to 380. Junk bond funds inched higher& Treasuries index saw buying, bringing higher yields (more below). Oil sank 4+ to the 75s (a low for 2022) & gold declined 17 to 1737.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
An often-overlooked economic gauge indicated that the US economy is headed for a recession, already in one, as the Federal Reserve tries to curb inflation with a series of rapid interest rate hikes. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators index showed that conditions further deteriorated in Oct, with the gauge down 0.8% from the previous month. That follows a 0.5% decline in Sep. "The U.S. LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession," said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. The slump reflects a worsening outlook among consumers, who are increasingly worried about steeper interest rates and stubbornly high inflation, as well as a prolonged slump in the housing market. There is a growing expectation that the Fed will trigger an economic downturn as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace in 3 decades to catch up with runaway inflation. Officials this month approved a 4th consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%, near restrictive levels, & showed no signs of pausing rate increases. In a troubling development, the Fed's rate hikes have thus far failed to tame inflation: The gov reported this month that the consumer price index soared 7.7% in Oct from the previous year, hovering near a 40-year high. That indicates the Fed will have to continue charting its aggressive course, raising the odds that it will crush consumer demand & cause unemployment to rise. "Let me say this," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters earlier this month. "It is very premature to be thinking about pausing. When people hear lags, they think about pauses. It's very premature, in my view, to talk about pausing our rate hikes. We have a way to go." Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.
TROUBLING TREND: Often-overlooked economic gauge says US is headed for recession
Bob Iger has returned as chief exec of Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, after less than a year in retirement & shares soared. The board announced Iger's stunning return yesterday &
said Bob Chapek, who succeeded Iger in 2020, had stepped down from the
position. "The Board has concluded that as Disney embarks on an
increasingly complex period of industry transformation, Bob Iger is
uniquely situated to lead the Company through this pivotal period,"
board Chair Susan Arnold said. Iger was CEO from 2005 to 2020, then served as the company's exec chair thru 2021 before retiring. Iger will now return as CEO for 2 years. "We thank Bob Chapek for his service to Disney over his long career, including navigating the company through the unprecedented challenges of the pandemic," Arnold said. Iger said he was "optomistic" about DIS's future & "thrilled" to be back as CEO. The stock jumped 6.35 (7%).
If you would like to learn more about DIS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/DIS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Bob Iger returns as Disney CEO after less than a year in retirement
Treasury yields slipped as investors awaited further clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans from central bank speakers & fretted over the outlook for inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was trading at 3.786%, down about 3 basis points & the 2-year Treasury yield was last up by less than one basis point at 4.514%. Yields & prices move in opposite directions & one basis point is worth 0.01%. Uncertainty about future interest rate hikes continued after Fed speakers last week suggested that a pause to them was not imminent, after economic data suggested to investors that inflation was easing. Many investors had therefore hoped the Fed would slow or pause rate hikes, as concerns about a recession have spread. Speaking at the Southern Economic Association over the weekend, Atlanta Fed Pres Raphael Bostic said rates would likely have to go higher still, but he was prepared to “move away” from implementing 75 basis point rate hikes in favor of smaller ones.
Treasury yields slip as traders assess inflation outlook and Fed policy plans
Dow Jones Industrials
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