Monday, November 28, 2022

Markets slide lower as Covid protests across China spread

Dow dropped 156, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ pulled back 65.  The MLP index slid 2+ to the 222s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 385s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries saw a little buying, lowering yields.  Oil was off to the 75s & gold declined 5 to 1748.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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Online sales for Black Friday set a record this year with consumers spending $9.2B, according to Adobe Analytics, a gain of 2.3% year-over-year (YoY).  Tech gifts have been very popular so far with sales rising 221% above a regular day in Oct this year.  Among the top sellers were smart home items & audio equipment.  Toys are hot items, rising 235%.  Discounts helped boost sales with the biggest savings seen among apparel, toys, sporting goods & televisions.  Mobile shopping remains a big story, with Black Friday hitting a new record: 48% of online sales came from smartphones, up from 44% last year.  "As Black Friday hit record spending online, we’re also seeing more prominent signs of a budget-conscious consumer this year," said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights.  "Shoppers are embracing the Buy Now Pay Later payment method more this year to be able to buy desired gifts for family and friends."  Shoppers spent $5.3B online on Thanksgiving Day, up 2.9% from the holiday last year & setting a record with smartphones accounting for 55% of online sales, up from 51% last year.  Shoppers & retailers got a jump on the season with early deals in Oct getting consumers to spend over $72B online.  Adobe expects the 5 days from Thanksgiving Day thru Cyber Monday to generate $34.8B in online spend, up 2.8% year-over-year.  Cyber Monday will remain the season's & year's biggest online shopping day at $11.2B, up 5.1% YoY.

Black Friday hits huge record – thanks to this year's hottest gifts

The Treasury Dept said Chevron (CVX), a Dow stock, has been issued an expanded license to import petroleum or petroleum products produced by its joint venture with PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil-firm.  The approval comes after talks resumed between the Venezuelan gov, led by socialist Pres Nicolás Maduro, & the opposition Unitary Platform.  "This action reflects longstanding U.S. policy to provide targeted sanctions relief based on concrete steps that alleviate the suffering of the Venezuelan people and support the restoration of democracy," the Treasury Dept said.  US officials had previously offered to loosen sanctions & release some Venezuelan prisoners held in US jails contingent on continuing talks & agreements to strengthen democracy in Venezuela.  Venezuela produces at most 800K barrels of oil per day.  That figure is up from the average of 525K barrels it produced a year ago, but far off its failed target of 1M a day by the end of 2021 & nowhere near the more than 3M barrels per day the country was producing in the 1990s.  The stock fell 3.82.
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US Treasury authorizes Chevron to expand oil pumping in Venezuela

Hundreds of demonstrators & police clashed in Shanghai yesterday night as protests over China's stringent COVID restrictions flared for a 3rd day & spread to several cities in the wake of a deadly apartment fire in the country's far west.  The wave of civil disobedience is unprecedented in mainland China since Pres Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago, as frustration mounts over his signature zero-COVID policy nearly 3 years into the pandemic.  The COVID measures are also exacting a heavy toll on the world's 2nd-largest economy.  "I'm here because I love my country, but I don't love my government ... I want to be able to go out freely, but I can't. Our COVID-19 policy is a game and is not based on science or reality," a protester said.  Protesters also took to the streets in the cities of Wuhan & Chengdu yesterday.  In Beijing, small gatherings held peaceful vigils, while students on numerous university campuses around China gathered to demonstrate over the weekend.  Yesterday in Shanghai, police kept a heavy presence on Wulumuqi Road, which is named after Urumqi & where a candlelight vigil the day before turned into protests.  A witness saw police escorting people onto a bus which was later driven away thru the crowd with a few dozen people on board.  On Sat, the vigil in Shanghai for victims of the apartment fire turned into a protest against COVID curbs, with the crowd chanting calls for lockdowns to be lifted.

Shanghai hit by Covid protests as anger spreads across China

The 2nd estimate for Q3 GDP, unrest in China over Covid restrictions & possibility of a national railroad strike will be monitored by investors this week.  Remember that higher holiday sales were partly due to high inflation.  Since mid Jun, Dow has recovered about 4350.  Further gains will need more positive news on the economic recovery.

Dow Jones Industrials

 

 






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