Markets tread water while waiting for the Fed announcement tomorrow

Dow dropped 79, but advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ fell 97.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 229s & the REIT index was even at 371.  Junk bond funds continued in demand & Treasuries had a little buying.  Oil rebounded 1+ to the 88s & gold gained 10 to 1651 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

                                                                           

Free Apple Analysis!

Bring Your Portfolio Into The 21st Century

Four Days, Four Trades, +40% Average Returns
Learn to trade options with MarketClub!

The Dept of the Treasury announced Series I bonds will pay 6.89% annual interest thru Apr 2023, down from the 9.62% yearly rate offered since May.  It's the 3rd-highest rate since I bonds were introduced in 1998 & investors may lock in this rate for 6 months by purchasing anytime before the end of Apr.  “The rate of 6.89% is another very competitive rate for the I bond compared to other conservative alternatives,” said Ken Tumin, founder & editor of DepositAccounts.com, which tracks I bonds, among other assets.  Backed by the US gov, I bonds don't lose value &d earn monthly interest with 2 parts: a fixed rate, which stays the same after purchase & a variable rate, which changes every 6 months based on inflation.  While early estimates for the I bond rate were 6.48%, the new rate includes a 0.4% increase for the fixed portion of the rate, based on higher Treasury inflation-protected securities yields, Tumin said.  TreasuryDirect announces new rates every May & Nov.  You can purchase the assets online through TreasuryDirect, limited to $10K per calendar year for individuals.  You can also use your federal tax refund to buy an extra $5K in paper I bonds.  On Oct 28, TreasuryDirect crashed as investors rushed to meet the deadline to lock in the 9.62% annual rate for 6 months.  A dept spokesperson said the traffic put “significant pressure and strain on the 20-year-old TreasuryDirect application.”  Despite technical issues, TreasuryDirect sold a record $979M of I bonds on Oct 28, nearly as much in a single day as were sold in 3 years from 2018 to 2020.

Treasury announces new Series I bond rate of 6.89% for the next six months

Fox (FOX) bet on its free, ad-supported streaming service Tubi appears to be paying off for the company.  The company reported earnings for its first fiscal qtr, noting that Tubi helped boost its advertising revenue.  The service offers on-demand movies & TV shows, as well as channels that replicate the traditional pay-TV format.  “In a quarter when digital advertising revenue appeared to be under pressure, Tubi posted standout revenue growth of almost 30%,” to about $165M said CEO Lachlan Murdoch.  Advertising revenue in the qtr was also propelled by political ads leading into the midterm elections.  Overall, revenue for the period was up 5% from a year ago to $3.2B.  Murdoch said that Tubi’s revenue for the first time surpassed the advertising revenue generated by Fox Entertainment “in a meaningful way.”  Driving that was the 50% increase in total viewing time, marking Tubi's highest ever quarterly viewership at 1.3B hours, Murdoch added.  The stock rose 1.41.
If you would like to learn more about FOX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/FOX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Fox earnings lifted by advertising revenue from free streaming service Tubi  

The Commerce Dept report Thurs showed US GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.6% during Q3, the period from Jul-Sep.  The GDP had shown negative growth during the first 2 qtrs of the year.  Also in response to the report, Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff, retweeted a post from Mark Zandi, an economist at the firm Moody's Analytics, who argued the GDP growth was evidence a recession was less likely.  "Last week’s data suggest that the economy is on script to soft land. GDP posted a solid gain in Q3, further dispelling concerns we have suffered a recession," Zandi wrote.  "And while GDP has gone nowhere this year despite the Q3 gain, that’s what’s needed to quell inflation without a recession."  Biden also told reporters the economy is "strong as hell" & downplayed inflation concerns when speaking to reporters.  A week later, Klain characterized economic concerns as "noise."  However, many economists, including a majority recently surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, believe the US has already entered a recession or will likely soon enter a recession.  And economists polled in mid-Oct said there was a 63% chance of a recession within the next 12 months.  Economists argued the positive GDP numbers signaled poor economic conditions.

Biden scrambles to paint misleading picture of economy

Gold prices ended higher, recovering some of their recent losses, after posting a 7th straight monthly decline in Oct.  Gold for Dec rose $9 (0.6%) to settle at $1649 an ounce.  The yellow metal suffered its 7th straight monthly fall in Oct based on most actively traded contracts, marking its longest such streak since 1982.  Gold drew strength today came from earlier weakness in the $ & falling Treasury yields as investors braced themselves for the Federal Reserve meeting.  Treasury yields were mostly moving lower today, while the ICE US Dollar Index was little changed at 111.553 after trading as low as 110.719.  YTD, however, gold prices have declined as the central bank has aggressively raised interest rates in its bid to squelch inflation, driving up Treasury yields & the $.  Rising yields raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets like gold, while a stronger $ makes commodities priced in the unit more expensive to users of other currencies.  Meanwhile, in a report released yesterday, the World Gold Council said global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter activity, rose 28% year on year in Q3 to 1181 metric tons, even though global investment demand was down 47% year on year at 124 metric tons.

Gold prices end higher after 7th straight monthly loss

Oil prices ended higher to log their first gain in 3 sessions.  Risks to energy supplies remain elevated after reports that Iran was planning an attack on targets that include Saudi Arabia & Northern Iraq.  Meanwhile, global economic outlook remains very fragile to a swathe of risks & that should keep crude demand forecasts vulnerable to getting slashed, but for now energy traders remain fixated on how tight the market remains.  US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec rose $1.84 (2.1%) to settle at $88.37 a barrel after losing 1.6% yesterday.

Oil prices post first gain in 3 sessions

Again, not much excitement in the stock market while traders are waiting to hear from the Fed tomorrow.

Dow Jones Industrials