Friday, November 18, 2022

Markets waver as tech stocks were weak

Dow rose 199, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ inched up 1.  The MLP index went up 2+ to the 224s & the REIT index rose 4+ to the 381s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries continued weak.  Oil continued to see selling, down 1+ to the 79s, & gold fell 11 to 1751 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Pfizer (PFE) said its omicron booster triggers a stronger immune response against a number of emerging Covid subvariants circulating in the US.  The booster triggered more antibodies against omicron sublineages BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, BA.2.75.2 & XBB.1 in adults older than 55 compared with a 4th dose of the original vaccines, according to new data.  Antibodies are a key part of the immune system that block the virus from invading cells.  PFE developed its booster against omicron BA.5 at the request of the Food & Drug Administration.  BA.5 was the dominant strain of Covid in the US over the summer, but is now fading away as subvariants such as BQ.1.1. start becoming more dominant.  BQ.1.1 & its sibling BQ.1 are causing about 48% of new infections in the US right now, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.  BA.5, meanwhile, has declined to about 25% of new Covid cases.  BA.4.6 & BA.2.75.2 still make up a very small proportion of new infections, while XBB.1 is not present in significant enough numbers to show up yet.  Antibodies against BQ.1.1 were about 9 times higher in people who received an omicron booster, while they were about 2 times higher in those who received a 4th dose of the original vaccine.  Among the emerging subvariants, the omicron booster elicited the strongest immune response against BA.4.6 with antibodies 11 times higher & the weakest response against XBB.1 with antibodies about five times higher.  The booster triggers the strongest immune response against omicron BA.5, the variant it was designed against, with antibodies increasing 13 times in people older than 55, according to PFE.  The stock fell 8¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer says omicron booster better against new subvariants than old shots

During this time of high inflation & increased interest rates, investors are understandably nervous about finances.  The number of people with negative feelings about finances has increased in the past year according to the 3Q analysis of savings behaviors & account balances from Fidelity Investments.  The percentage of individuals feeling negative has increased to 32% in the past year & is greater than the 30% who have positive feelings.  A year ago, 45% felt positive, which was twice the percentage of those with negative feelings.  Investors have stayed strong about retirement savings despite balances slipping.  Average retirement account balances decreased for the 3rd consecutive qtr.  The average 401(k) balance dropped below the six-figure mark to $97K this qtr, down 22.9% from a year ago, 6% from Q2 2022 & a 28% increase from 10 years ago.  The average IRA balance was $102K in Q3, a 24.9% decrease from Q3 2021, an 8% decrease from last qtr & a 33% increase from 10 years ago.

401K balances sink below $100K as high inflation has investors on edge

General Motors (GM) expects its new electric vehicle profits to be in-line with cars & trucks with traditional engines by 2025 – years ahead of schedule and what many thought was possible.  CEO Mary Barra said the updated forecast factors in federal incentives under the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, which includes money back for companies that produce EVs in North America as well as for consumers and fleet customers that purchase the vehicles.  “It’s clear these credits are going to help usher in a new era of technology innovation and job creation that’s going to achieve what was intended,” Barra said.  “It will be good for the American economy. It’ll be good for American families. It’ll be good for the environment, and frankly, General Motors is well poised.”  The incentives are expected to increase profit margins on GM's EV portfolio an additional 5-to-7 basis points from the “low- to mid-single digit” margins by then without the federal stimulus, according to CFO Paul Jacobson.  He said GM expects to be among the first, if not the first, to be eligible for the full $7500 consumer tax credits that will take into account stricter sourcing of EV battery materials.  Such profits are expected to assist in growing GM's revenue at a 12% compound annual rate to more than $225B, including $50B from EVs, in 2025, the company said.  The stock rose 1.12.
If you would like to learn more about GM
, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GM expects EV profits to be comparable to gas vehicles by 2025, ahead of schedule

Gold futures settled lower, with strength in the $ & Treasury yields pulling prices to their lowest settlement in a week, after 2 senior Federal Reserve officials said higher interest rates are needed to bring inflation down.  Gold for Dec fell $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1754 an ounce, with most-active contract prices down 0.9% for the week.  Yesterday, gold settled at $1763, the lowest finish for a most-active contract since Nov 10.

Gold Futures Settle At The Lowest In Over A Week


Oil futures logged their 2nd straight weekly declines, pressured as a resurgence of COVID-19 worries clouded the energy demand picture, and broader markets kept eyes on a hawkish Federal Reserve.  The front-month Dec contract for the US crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $80.08 a barrel, down $1.56 (1.9%).  Dec WTI remained well the below the $80 support level for much of the session, hitting 6-week lows, before rebounding just ahead of the close as China's zero-COVID policy rekindled this week revived concerns the world's 2nd-largest economy would buy less oil and gas.  Crude oil prices have come under pressure this week as demand concerns, especially from economic giant China, outweighed signs of tighter supplies.  China's State Council warned cities to avoid "irresponsible loosening" of COVID-19 measures, according to the South China Morning Post.  A report said there was a 7fold surge in COVID infections in the past 2 weeks in China, even as the nation's new policy of loosened measures was aimed at reducing the impact of zero-COVID restrictions.  On the supply side, traders ponder how much crude oil is going to come off the market once the Dec 5 seaborne Russian oil embargo kicks in & whether there will be an effective price cap that allows Russia oil to hit the markets, but at a lower price. 

Oil futures fall 10% for week as China’s COVID worries darken demand picture

Dow pretty much was sideways this week, not straying far from 33K & finishing little changed.  But worries that have haunted the stock market for months are still around.

Dow Jones Industrials 








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