Friday, October 3, 2008

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

Dow, out of the gate, started strong, rising to a 300 point gain by midday. However, by day's end, like other averages, was down. Dow dropped 157, decliners ahead of advancers almost 2-1 (it had been 4-1 in favor of advancers earlier in the day) & NAZ pulled back 29. From 1PM, about the time the House passed the bill, Dow headed south with strong selling in the final hour. For the week, Dow dropped 800 to levels not seen in about 4 years.

After early gains prompted by the Wells Fargo (WFC) bid for Wachovia (WB), S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX sold off to a loss of 10 at 254. The Alerian MLP index declined 4 to 214 & the Dow Jones REIT Index slipped 13 to 219 (partially related to the story below). Oil, near 94, was little changed on the day while gold sold off 11. Early gains did not hold. Sure, the revised bailout/pork package passed the House this time, but.........
this is the kind of news causing the slide:

California May Seek Loan, New York Deficit Swells as Crisis Roils States

Reality is ugly today, there will be more such stories. For example, First Industrial Realty (FR) which had included in my Yahoo badge on the right, cut guidance for 2008 FFO (cash earnings used to pay divs) by 25% to a level which just barely (at best) covers the div. In addition, 2009 guidance was for even lower FFO. The stock was one of the leading decliners today, down over 8 (OUCH). They own hard assets, buildings, but it has been tough to finance building sales in today's cruel financial world (they are not alone!). I've removed FR from from my Yahoo finance badge, replaced with Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, which has been viewed negatively recently. For the venturesome, FR remains a solid company which will give good buying opportunities when real estate markets return to a growth phase. Just follow their fortunes to determine attractive buying opportunities.

More signs about a depressed economy.... Retailers are reporting Aug sales worse than forecast giving a gloomy outlook going into first Halloween then the important holiday sales season. Consumers are holding back on spending, retailers will be forced to struggle for profitable sales gains.

Nordstrom, J.C. Penney Sales May Fall More Than Forecast as Holidays Loom

Passing the House bill gave a psychological lift to the markets. Some bleeding will end. But a ton of problems remain, among them will be trying to sort through $Bs of mortgages & other bad loans. Over the weekend, there will be time to evaluate the 450 page bill (with pork) to see how much good it will do to solve the financial mess & how it can help ailing economies around the world.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Classic


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