Friday, October 24, 2008

Just another disastrous Dow day

First sightings on Bloomberg TV this AM was Dow futures down 550, the limit. NYSE had to make an announcement they would be open today! This was on the heels of just another disastrous day for stock markets around the world. The Dow recovered a bit, down "only" 217, decliners over advancers only 6-1 & NAZ down another 25. Last night, I said the final hour 400 point rally for the Dow did not smell right. All 30 Dow stocks are lower, General Motors is a $5 stock while Alcoa is a $9 dollar stock.

This confusion & chaos is good for the VIX, Volatility (or Fear) Index. It's up 9 to 77 after reaching almost 90, levels nobody could have imagined just a few day ago!

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX dropped again taking it near the 184 low set a couple of weeks ago:

Value 187.62Change -6.7% % Change -3.5%


Other indices are taking today's negative feelings a little better. High yield bond funds are down, but they sell off on any excuse. The Alerian MLP index is down only 1 & the Dow Jones REIT index is down 3 bringing it near the bottom levels of one decade ago which proved to be an excellent time for buying & locking up double digit yields:


Dow Jones REIT Index --- 10 years





Oil is having another down day on bearish sentiment about global recession & resulting demand destruction. Gloomy news about oil prices & global recession are dragging down Chevron (CVX) & Exxon (XOM), 2 Dow oils, with 3+ losses each:


CLZ08.NYMCrude Oil Dec 08.... 64.33 ...Down 3.51
.... (5.2%)




Samsung, probably the largest company in Korea & truly selling to the global market, reported a 44% drop in Q3 earnings sending their stock down another 14%. All last night, CNBC-Asia kept repeating that the Korean market was down 11% for THIS WEEK, not the entire year - just this week. At the start of the week, they had a $100+B rescue plan to help save their banks. After final weekly figures were in, the market had its worst decline in the 21 year history (down 21%). This same old story is being repeated in one market after another.


The UK economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.5% in Q3, pretty much signalling a recession. The decline had been predicted, another expected decline in this qtr will make it official. Their FTSE 100 index plunged almost 8% on the news.

After the initial plunge of 500, Dow has rallied about 300 limiting the damage to only 200. Let's leave it there for the time being. The problems markets are dealing with are unprecedented, huge & global. Market repair will be measured in months, if not years.

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