Friday, October 24, 2008

Just another down day

Stocks have quieted down a bit in the last few days following one of the most brutal sell-offs ever:


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks




Below is an ugly chart for the Dow over the last 2 months when it dropped 3K. The Dow is 3K below the 200 day moving average, not pretty. But at least the volume numbers have calmed a bit lately:


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months






Today Dow recovered from the 500 point drop out of the gate to end with only a 312 loss. Actually it cut the loss to less than 200, but a 150 drop in closing minutes made for an uglier day at the close. Not sure about the final numbers as Bloomberg, Yahoo & Bigcharts do not agree! Maybe day traders wanted to take profits & close out going into the weekend. Dow's getting used to 8K area which will probably encourage more weak stockholders to sell stocks & mutual finds, keeping pressure on the Dow. Decliners were ahead of advancers 4-1 & NAZ was down 51. Considering the start, a so-so finish.

The indices I follow have had a relatively mild day. S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX dropped on all the financial confusion out the:

Value...
186.85
Change
-7.48
% Change
-3.8%

The Alerian MLP Index was about even keeping above the 200 psychologically important line. However, the Dow Jones REIT index dropped 10 just inches away from the yearly low (& multi year low). High yield (junk) bonds keep selling off, just can't find friends.

The recovery during the day may have been stimulated by a growing expectation of another Federal Reserve rate cut, & this will be a big one. Now they are talking about a 75 basis point cut bringing a record low FED rate. That should cause a one day pop (500 points is becoming routine). But the next day, markets will have to return & absorb ugly macro economic news. Such a rate cut will not solve the credit mess. At least US stock markets have become quieter even if they have to get used to new low levels.

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