Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Half of yesterday's gains given back

This was one of those up & down & up & down, almost 300 points were shed in the last 2 hours. Markets just couldn't make it 2 days in a row. Maybe the hedge fund guys returned, selling in the last couple of hours. Dow dropped 231 settling at its lows just above 9K, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ fell back 73. The Alerian MLP index was down only 2, after its recent run-up, following the lead of lower oil prices. The Dow Jones REIT Index fell 6 & the S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX was off 4. Junk bond funds which saw buying last week, pulled back. Even the extra wild VIX was little changed in the super high territory near 54. Oil continued weak, giving back yesterday's gains. The 2 Dow oils, Exxon-Mobil (XOM) & Chevron (CVX), gave back around 3 each, leading the Dow lower.

CLX08.NYMCrude Oil Nov 08....70.89 .....Down 3.36
..... (4.5%)



The latest forecast is that retailers will see the weakest growth for holiday sales in many years, only 1.7%.

Retailers' holiday same-store sales to rise 1.7%: ICSC


Just the idea of a 2nd stimulus economic package is a hot potato, maybe too hot for this congress to deal with in its closing weeks after the election:

McCain Holds Back as Bernanke Revives Debate Over Second Stimulus Package


This AM, Caterpillar (CAT) & DuPont (DD) from the Dow, reported lower sales, down 2.07 & 2.89 respectively. 3M, another Dow stock, reported good earnings & said they expect to earn 3.40+ for the year, sending the stock up 2½.

3M net climbs 3.2% on nearly $7 billion in sales

Apple (AAPL), another tech darling, dropped 6.95 ahead of its after hours earnings release. In after hours trading, it's up 1 on gut instincts.

Central banks seem to be doing a fairly decent job of straightening out the monstrous credit mess. This will take time & cost more money than we can imagine. But the ominous signs for retail sales is more troubling for me. Even lower gas prices at the pump will not be able to overcome macro economic problems built into the economy.

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