Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Stocks down, here we go again

Dow tumbled 326 (cracking below 9K again), decliners over advancers 7-1 and NAZ pulled back another 54. Banks sold off once again keeping below the July 15 low of 232. The S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX pulled back 10 to 221. REITs have gotten pummeled, down 10 to 182, to 5 year lows making for just another very ugly chart:


Dow Jones REITs -- 5 years




Lousy retail sales brought sellers back in full force. The Commerce Dept reported retail sales decreased 1.2% in Sep, far worse than an expected 0.7% decline & the biggest decline since a 1.4% decline 3 years ago. A 3.8% drop in auto sales was the biggest factor in the decline as consumers struggled to find financing (taking us back to bank loan problems). This was the 3rd consecutive month of declining retail sales, the first time since 1992.

Retail Sales in U.S. Fall Most in Three Years on Job Losses, Housing Woes

A slipping economy is even pulling down oil prices, near the 12 month low:

CLX08.NYMCrude Oil Nov 08...76.33.... Down 2.30 (2.9%)

The Alerian MLP index pulled back 9 to 198. A month ago, it had an 8 point pop which I said was probably a record. Since then, such moves have become common. Maybe that's because the VIX, Volatility Index, is back up 5 today to 60, heavenly heights never before seen!

Last night, Asian markets were selling off 1-2%, expecting more dreary news on the US economy & today European markets also tumbled. One index followed closely in Asia is the Baltic Dry Index. Yesterday it fell fell 11% to 1,615, the lowest level in 5 years. Rates for larger ships fell 17% yesterday, bringing this year's plunge to 85% below the peak. This results from less trade & harder to get letters of credit from banking institutions, vital in Asian trade.

Shipping Rates Plunge on Credit Freeze, Decline in Demand for Commodities

Macro economic reality seems to be getting the better of the extreme optimism on Mon, Dow may have to head south to test Fri lows.

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