Stocks meander, looking for direction

Last night, Asian Markets were up but only mildly. The big decliner was the Korean market which is having to deal with major banking problems that their central bank is trying to fix. Asian markets rose this week, first time in 2 months, providing a degree of hope.

After starting off down 250, Dow fought back to break even & remains nearby. Dow is even, advancers equal decliners & NAZ is up 11 ((helped by Google (GOOG) reporting good earnings last night)). Today is also an option expiration day, providing a little extra excitement for the traders. S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX is down 1, the Alerian MLP index rose 8 taking it back over 200 & the Dow Jones REIT Index is up 2.

As I suspected last night, the Alerian MLP Index had a glitch in its daily trade number yesterday by providing a change for 2 days, not just one. A couple of stocks had similar glitches. The important point is the MLP index is down sharply in this month alone. 2 years ago at this time, it was on a 70 point march upward which took 9 months. Last week, it dropped 70 in 3 ugly days, that's what we have to deal with now.

Oil is trying to get back over 70, but that's still over a 50% drop from its peak 3 months ago while gold has been having a tough time lately (maybe influenced by global economic worries):

CLX08.NYM

Crude Oil Nov 08

....71.61

... 1.76 (2.5%)

GCV08.CMX

Gold Oct 08

....775.90

... 25.60 (3.2%)

Macro economic numbers keeping coming & their glum. The Michigan Surveys of Consumers confidence plunged to 57.5 in Oct down from 70.3 in the prior month, the largest monthly decline in history. There have been only 4 monthly declines of 10 points or more. The report said, "All of the prior double-digit declines were based on severe economic dislocations with the losses accelerated by fear and panic." Expectations were for 65.5. Since 1952, the record low was 51.7 back in May 1980.

New home construction fell 6.3% in Sep vs expectations of 1.6%. The industry is on pace to construct the fewest new homes & apartments in 2008 since the end of World War II, no great surprise.

•U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Most on Record Amid Job Losses, Credit Woes
•Single-Family Housing Starts in U.S. Tumble to 26-Year Low; Permits Plunge


IBM (IBM), a Dow stock, reported very good earnings sending the stock up 77¢. However, VF Corp (VFC), maker of Lees, Wranglers & other leisure clothing, reduced its estimate for Q4 earnings growth from 20% to under 5%, stock down 2.33. Their dividend was increased by 4¢ annualized (they are an S&P Dividend Aristocrat).

IBM profit gains on software, services
Clothing giant VF Corp. cuts fourth-quarter view


Hedge funds have not done well this year & their redemptions have brought large stock sales, aggravating the declines & increasing the market volatility which has become routine.

•Hedge-Fund Assets Declined by 11% in Third Quarter on Record Withdrawals


There are optimists among all the gloom. JP Morgan has ideas about 16 major companies which they think are worth owning in these troubled times. Warren Buffet said he is buying stocks with his personal money, demonstrating his belief in their long term values.

•JPMorgan Picks 16 U.S. Stocks to Buy as Economies Enter `Global Recession'
Warren Buffett: Buy Stocks! Cash Is Trash!