Friday, October 3, 2008

Relief rally in full swing

Oversold markets are rallying on expectations that the House will pass the bailout & pork bill. Dow rose 200, advancers ahead of decliners 4-1 & a vastly oversold NAZ gained 55. Banks did well, up 8½, helped by a new Wells Fargo bid (WFC) for troubled Wachovia (WB):

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value..273.08Change..8.51 % Change..3.2%


Bank Rescue Nears Passage After Garnering Support From 14 More Lawmakers
Also participating in the advance, the Alerian MLP index was up 6 & the Dow Jones REIT index rose 3½, both a little muted. Junk bonds funds remain down, down in the dumps with yields of over 16% for the very brave. Oil & gold, 2 big commodities, were little changed despite excitement in the stock markets.

Important news was reported on unemployment, disappointing but expected. Employers cut jobs by 159K in Sep, far worse than the 100K estimated. 760K jobs have been lost a already in 2008. Ugly economic news, especially on the job front, is expected to push marginal votes in Congress to vote in favor of the bailout/pork bill.

U.S. Payrolls Plunge in Sign Economy May Enter Worst Recession Since 1982


The sick economy will drag on. Last night, during Asian trading, Toyata (TM) announced that they will offer 0% financing in the US. For them this is unusual, but they are that hungry to sell more cars. Housing & autos are going thru their roughest times since the depression.


SeekingAlpha published my latest article on the outlook for MLPs:

Attractive Outlook for MLPs Following September Lows


The long term outlook for MLPs remains excellent despite current tough times. Large capital expenditures are long term in nature. But macro level financial problems are making their lives more difficult, as with other businesses. They have to scramble harder to get loans & sell units at low prices to build equity (mirroring the rest of the economy).

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