Decline in jobless claims raises stocks

Dow is flirting with a new 2009 high. Dow is up 41 taking it over 10½K, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ is up 10 to another yearly high. Banks are attracting buyers. The Financial Index is trying to put some distance between it & its recent lows of 190.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 195.30

Change 1.20

% Change 0.6%

High yields are red hot. The Alerian MLP Index rose another 2 to the 287s while the REIT index also gained 2 but to the 187s, both yearly highs. The MLP Index is up an eye popping 63% this year & distributions are a bonus. From the dreary lows, the index is coming close to double. Meanwhile the yield on the index has dropped to under 7½% from over 15% in the ugly days. Junk bonds don't want to be left behind, they're also advancing. Treasuries are a little soft, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 2 basis points to 3.77% (a 6 month high).


Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Large storms, falling supplies, a weak dollar & a slightly better employment picture sent futures higher, especially oil. Oil inventory supplies fell 5M barrels last week, but supplies remain ample. Gold had a rally, still trying to find footing after its Dec decline.

CLG10.NYM

...Crude Oil Feb 10

...77.14

... 0.47 .......(0.6%)

GCZ09.CMX

...Gold Dec 09

...1,103.00

... 9.70 .......(0.9%)

GLD (ETF) --- 2 weeks





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The number of workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week & the 4-week average fell for the 16th straight week, to its lowest point in 15 months. The Labor Dept reported the number of new jobless claims fell to 452K last week, down 28K from the prior week, better performance than 470K that was forecasted. The 4-week average fell to 465K.

Further good news for the economy was that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket durable goods rose in Nov but the increase was less than expected. Excluding the volatile transportation category, the gains were twice what had forecast.

•U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since September 2008
•Durables Orders in U.S. Rise in Sign Companies Investing Ahead of New Year


Jobless claims - 1 year




4 Week Average - 1 year




# Receiving Continuing Claims - 1 year





In addition to approving massive spending on a new health plan, the Senate voted to raise the ceiling on gov debt to $12.4T, just another increase . The vote raises the ceiling by $290B. The bill permits the Treasury to issue enough bonds to fund the government's operations & programs until ONLY mid-February. Next week they will auction another $118B in debt. Take a look at the graph below, this a is a looming problem that is not going away!

Senate Votes to Increase Debt Ceiling by $290 Billion

US debt ($T) - 1 year





Bulls remain in charge of the markets. We're back to all news is good news which is taking all markets higher. Unless there is major news to counter that thinking, markets should close out the year continuing their rally.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks