Thursday, December 3, 2009

Mixed markets on conflicting economic data

Dow was up 8, advancers ahead of decliners by 15% & NAZ rose 9. Banks are still sloshing around trying to find traction.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
196.95
Change
-0.03
% Change
-0.0%


MLPs are rising, the Alerian MP Index is up 1+ to the 268s & very near its yearly highs. The Dow Jones REIT Index is up taking it within 3 of its 2009 high. Junk bond funds are generally higher, at or near yearly highs (& lowest yields). The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 5 basis points to 3.37%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil fell taking it closer to its 75 floor. Gold is also down, but remains above 1200.


CLF10.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 10...75.94 ...Down 0.66
.......(0.9%)


GCZ09.CMX...Gold Dec 09...1,205.60 ...Down 6.40
.......(0.5%)


The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell (unexpectedly) for the 5th straight week. However, claims remain above levels consistent with an economy that is adding jobs. First-time claims dropped 5K to 457K, the lowest in 15 months. The ongoing decline signals that employers could start adding jobs by as early as Jan or Feb. The economy has shed jobs for 22 straight months, the longest stretch since World War II. The employment report for Nov, to be released Fri, is expected to show that employers shed another 130K jobs after cutting 190K in Oct. However, the unemployment rate is estimated to remain at 10.2%.

U.S. Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall to One-Year Low

# filing unemployment claims - 1 year




# receiving benefits - 1 year




After 2 consecutive monthly sales gains, retailers posted a surprise 0.3% decrease for Nov. The decline is compared with last Nov when spooked shoppers went into a defensive crouch after the financial meltdown. Most stores, including department store chains Macy's (M), Children's Place Retail Stores (PLCE), teen merchant Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) & discounter Target (TGT), posted sales declines. Their stocks are down around 5%.



This is another day when markets are getting mixed signals from the news. The rest of the day should be quiet until the Nov jobs reports is released tomorrow before trading.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks