Friday, December 11, 2009

Markets higher on stronger retail sales & sentiment

Dow rose 65 to 10,472, essentially tied for another closing high in 2009, advances were ahead of decliners almost 2-1 but NAZ was off .55 from weak technology. Banks finally had an up day but limping along in the low end of a 4 month trading range.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
193.14
Change
1.33
% Change
0.7%






MLPs just keep setting new yearly highs. The Index rose another 1½ to 275. The REIT index gained 2½, it's still trying to reach a new high for 2009. Junk bond funds rose, many back to levels last seen prior to the financial meltdown in Sep 2008. Treasuries were off again. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 6 basis points to 3.54%, a high since Aug. Selling comes from worries that a stronger economic recovery will encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner.

Alerian MLP Index --- YTD




Dow Jones REIT Index --- YTD





Oil broke thru the 70 floor, a 2 month low. Gold was also down, still looking for a floor to bounce off. It may be in this region, a little above 1100.

CLF10.NYM..Crude Oil Jan 10..69.65 ..Down 0.89
......(1.3%)


GCZ09.CMX..Gold Dec 09..1,117.50 ..Down 8.20
......(0.7%)



OIL (ETF) --- 3 months





In 2009, the US fell into 2nd place in demand for cars. US car sales will be roughly 10+M this year while China shot up to 12M cars & growing. China is still below the 16+M pace reached in the US a few years ago but should be surpassed that in a few years. The stimulus package in China was based on putting people to work & their program has been successful (unlike ours).


After all the gyrations, Dow ended with a 82 gain for the week. The retail sales figures & improved consumer sentiment should help markets next week as long as there are no hints about the FED seeking higher interest rates.

Dow Jones Industrials --- YTD






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