Monday, December 14, 2009

Markets rise on purchase by Exxon & Dubai bailout

Dow rose only 33 on an otherwise fairly strong day, advancers ahead of decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 15. Both could set new highs for 2009 if they can hang onto gains. Banks are still mired in the low 190s, the Financial Index has done little since Aug.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
192.93
Change
-0.21
% Change
-0.1%

MLPs are on fire (by their standards). The Index is up almost 3 to another 2009 high bringing the gain for the year to over 100. The Dow Jones REIT Index is still slugging it out in the mid 170s, today up only a fraction. Junk bond funds continue strong reaching new highs for this year & corresponding new low yields. Treasuries were little changed, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was up 1 basis point to 3.55% the high end of its range for much of this year.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks





Oil is hovering near 70, the former floor of 75 seems to be a long way away. Gold is trying to establish a base around 1120 (shown in the chart).

CLF10.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 10...70.00 ...Up 0.13
.......(0.2%)


GCZ09.CMX...Gold Dec 09...1,124.60 ...Up 0.80
.......(0.1%)


GLD (ETF) --- 2 weeks




According to a CNN poll, 49% said they'll spend less on holiday gifts this year than last year. Another 39% said they'll spend at 2008 levels, while only 12% indicated they'll spend more. The CNN poll found that 68% will be buying gifts that people need, compared to 27% who will be purchasing gifts that people might enjoy. The success of this retail season is still in doubt.


Many Americans to spend less on holiday - CNN poll



Citigroup (C) is repaying $20B in bailout money to get the gov off its back. The gov will also sell its stake in Citi. The gov gave it $45B in loans & agreed to protect losses on nearly $300B in risky investments. Wells Fargo (WFC) remains the last national bank that has to pay back its bailout money. Citi will sell $20.5B in stock & debt to repay the gov. The remaining $25B was converted into a 34% ownership stake earlier this year & the gov plans to sell that stake (which has risen in value more than 20%) in 2010. Citi dropped 20¢ to 3.75. After this transaction, Citi still faces losses as other big banks recovered.

Citigroup to Repay $20 Billion of TARP Cash, Last Big Bank to Exit Program

Citigroup --- 2 years





Exxon Mobil (XOM), Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, is buying XTO Energy (XTO) in an all-stock deal worth $31B. XTO shows the priority that major producers are giving to natural gas as a fuel source as new technology has unlocked very large quantities of natural gas. This acquisition comes after Exxon last week gave the go-ahead for a $15B natural gas project in Papua New Guinea, positioning them to provide energy to a fuel-hungry China. XTO is up 6.33 on the buyout news while Exxon is down 2.90 to 69.93 (a more attractive buying point for value conscious investors).

Exxon Mobil to Buy XTO Energy for $31 Billion


Exxon Mobil --- 2 years





Abu Dhabi is bailing out Dubai, bringing a greater sense of calm to international markets. Stocks are behaving well, the Exxon purchase is another plus for the markets. After spending time treading water, bulls may take charge again.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks




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